Sensitivity analysis of parameters and methodological choices used in calculation of radiation detriment for solid cancer

Abstract

Purpose: Radiation detriment is a concept used by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to quantify the harmful health effects of radiation exposure in humans. The current approach of radiation detriment calculation has been defined in ICRP Publication 103 in 2007. It is determined from lifetime risk of cancer and heritable effects for a composite reference population, taking into account the severity of the disease in terms of lethality, quality of life and years of life lost. Many parameters are used in the calculations and the variation of these parameters can have effects on the cancer detriment, which needs to be investigated.

Materials and methods: In this paper, we conducted a sensitivity analysis for examining the impact of 12 different parameters or methodological choices on the calculation of solid cancer detriment, such as the lifetime risk calculation method, survival curve, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF), age-at-exposure, sex, reference population, risk transfer model, latency, attained age, lethality, minimum quality of life factor and relative cancer-free life lost. Sensitivity calculations have been performed systematically for each of 10 solid cancer sites, by changing each one of the parameters in turn.

Results: This sensitivity analysis demonstrated a large impact on estimated detriment from DDREF, age-at-exposure, sex and lethality, a noticeable impact of risk transfer model associated to variation of baseline rates, and a limited impact of risk calculation method, survival curve, latency, attained age, quality of life and relative years of life lost.

Conclusion: These results could have implications for radiation protection standards, and they should help define priorities for future research in the field of low radiation dose and dose rate research. The present sensitivity analysis is part of a global effort of ICRP to review the bases of radiation detriment calculation and assess potential evolutions to improve the radiation protection system.

Keywords:

• ICRP
• radiation detriment
• sensitivity analysis
• DDREF

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank the ICRP members who contributed or participated to the review of the work of Task Group 102 ‘Detriment Calculation Methodology’: Tamara Azizova, John D. Boice Jr., Simon Bouffler, Donald A. Cool, Wolfgang Dörr, John D. Harrison, Michael Hauptmann, Michiaki Kai, Jacques Lochard, Werner Rühm, Sisko Salomaa and Richard Wakeford.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Wei Zhang

Wei Zhang, Ph.D., is a member of ICRP Task Group 102, and a member of the UNSCEAR UK delegation.

Dominique Laurier

Dominique Laurier, Ph.D., is a member of the ICRP Main Commission, and of ICRP Task Groups 64 and 102, and a member of the UNSCEAR French delegation. He has authored or coauthored >140 papers in peer-reviewed international journals.

Enora Cléro

Enora Cléro, Ph.D., is a member of ICRP Task Group 102. She has authored or coauthored >25 papers in peer-reviewed international journals.

Nobuyuki Hamada

Nobuyuki Hamada, RT, Ph.D., is a member of ICRP Task Groups 102 and 111, a member of NCRP PAC 1, Chair of Scientific Advisory Board for the European CONCERT LDLensRad project, and a member of IRPA Phase 3 Task Group on the implementation of the eye lens dose limits. He has published >115 papers in peer-reviewed international journals and has received 19 awards.

Dale Preston

Dale Preston, Ph.D., was a member of the ICRP Committee 1 at the time of the ICRP Publication 103, and is currently a member of ICRP Task Group 102.

Ludovic Vaillant

Ludovic Vaillant, is currently a member of ICRP Task Groups 98, 102, and 115.

Nobuhiko Ban

Nobuhiko Ban, Ph.D., is a member of ICRP Committee 4, Chair of ICRP Task Group 102, and a member of ICRP Task Group 115.