Prognostic assessment of the zone of occurrence of radiation combined injuries within a nuclear blast area

Abstract

Background

A detonation of nuclear weapon (NW) is considered as one of the most devastating radiological scenarios in the list of modern global threats. An essential proportion of victims in a mass casualty radiation event may require an immediate medical care due to radiation combined injuries (RCI). Surprisingly, there is a lack of clear guidance for quantitative prognosis of the spatial distribution of expected RCI casesin a given nuclear explosion scenario.

Purpose

This work is aimed at the presentation of a new, improved model, allowing more confident evaluation of the contributions from different NW destructive forces to RCI formation, thus leading to more accurate approximation of the zone around the epicenter for a guided search for RCI cases.

Materials and methods

The model is made compatible with a classic approach and provides the estimates of radial distance from the epicenter, at which NW explosion can produce RCI. Mathematical formalism comprises a set of equations for the reciprocal assessment of a distance–effect for radiation dose (separately for neutrons and gamma-rays), thermal wave and blast shock wave depending on the NW type, detonation yield and altitude, environmental conditions (i.e. season) and shielding factors. The model’s capabilities were demonstrated using an example of the RCI grade causing a profound operational performance decrement of military personnel in two marginal scenarios: Troops deployed in an open area or a tank crew.

Results

A remarkable difference in the expected radial zones of possible RCI occurrence was found between the actions of a ‘historical’ atomic bomb, thermonuclear weapons, and low-yield neutron munitions, also with a noticeable impact of the season factor (summer/winter). For a tank crew the clinically manageable RCI are possible only in very high yield explosion scenarios, while the damage caused by radiation alone possess much higher risk.

Conclusions

Suggested formalism may provide guidance for a preliminary planning of countermeasures, targeting of radiation reconnaissance, and clarification of triage results in a broad range of radiological scenarios based on NW detonation. Further improvement of the model is possible by considering neutrons’ and gamma-rays’ relative biological efficacy, possible shielding factors, and a synergetic effect of NW’s destructive forces.

Keywords:

• Nuclear detonation
• radiation combined injuries
• mixed gamma-neutron radiation
• a profound operational performance decrement

Acknowledgments

Authors are very grateful to the Military Institute of Tanks Forces of the National Technical University ‘Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute’ (Kharkiv, Ukraine) for providing access to their technical library and to the Organizing Committee of the 24th Nuclear Medical Defense Conference ‘ConRad’21’ based at the Bundeswehr Institute of Radiobiology affiliated to the University of Ulm (Munich, Germany) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (Vienna, Austria) for their support in presenting this work.

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no actual or potential conflict of interest including any financial, personal or other relationships with other people or organizations that could inappropriately influence their work. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of the paper.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Academy of Medical Science of Ukraine under Project Grant NAMN 03.16.

Notes on contributors

Igor Cherniavskiy

Igor Cherniavskiy, Ph.D. (Military Science – Armament and Military Equipment), is a Specialist in Military Radiation Safety and Radiation Dosimetry; he has been employed at the National Technical University ‘Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute’ (NTU KhPI), Kharkiv, Ukraine for the past 20 years and currently works as a Professor of the Department of Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection at the Military Institute of Tank Forces, affiliated with the NTU KhPI.

Volodymyr Vinnikov

Volodymyr Vinnikov, Ph.D. (Biological Science – Radiobiology), started as a Cytogeneticist at S.P. Grigoriev Institute for Medical Radiology and Oncology, Kharkiv, Ukraine in 1991 and reached his current position of GIMRO Deputy Director on Science in 2009. Also, he has served as consultant to the IAEA. He has particular scientific interests in biological dosimetry, with the emphasis on the improvements of biodosimetric methodology in complex radiation exposure scenarios, including radiotherapy, past or chronic exposures to low doses, or inhomogeneous irradiations to health-threatening high doses.