Strained Relations in the High North: Steps-to-War Analysis of Conflict Potential in the Arctic

Abstract

Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, tensions have heightened in the international relations and security environment, including the Arctic region. We are witnessing renewed geopolitical rivalry and military tensions between the Arctic states. In this article, a steps-to-war model of conflict escalation is used to calculate whether the conflict potential in the Arctic is rising. While our results confirm an increase in confrontational behaviour according to militarisation and coalition-building markers, the rivalry marker shows a rise in cooperative behaviour. Hence, in our model, the preconditions signalling an increased likelihood of international armed conflict are not fulfilled.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 ‘Royal Navy Leads Multi-National Task Group Above Arctic Circle’, Royal Navy, 10 September 2020, available at: https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2020/september/10/200910-royal-navy-task-group-arctic-circle, accessed 8 January 2024.

2 Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and the USA.

3 By international armed conflict we mean the legal definition in Common Article 2 to the four Geneva Conventions of 1949, which refers to ‘all cases of declared war or of any other armed conflict which may arise between two or more of the High Contracting Parties, even if the state of war is not recognised by one of them. The Convention shall also apply to all cases of partial or total occupation of the territory of a High Contracting Party, even if the said occupation meets with no armed resistance’ (‘Treaties, States, Parties and Commentaries’, ICRC, available at: https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/vwTreaties1949.xsp?redirect=0, accessed 25 July 2022).

4 For an overview see Levy and Thompson (2010), Cashman (2014).

5 The term refers to various types of military contest, challenge, comparison, provocation or outrage; measuring mutual military strengths but not direct confrontation.

6 ‘Treaty Between the Kingdom of Norway and the Russian Federation Concerning Maritime Delimitation and Cooperation in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean’, Regjeringen, 2010, available at: https://www.regjeringen.no/globalassets/upload/ud/vedlegg/folkerett/avtale_engelsk.pdf, accessed 25 July 2022.

7 Afghanistan, Albania, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, People’s Republic of China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Italy, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Monaco, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States and Venezuela.

8 ‘Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress’, Congressional Research Service, 2022, available at: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21562711/changes-in-the-arctic-background-and-issues-for-congress-march-24-2022.pdf, accessed 25 July 2022.

9 ‘US, Russia Sign Joint Contingency Plan for Pollution Response in the Bering and Chukchi Seas’, Seapower Magazine, 2 February 2021, available at: https://seapowermagazine.org/u-s-russia-sign-joint-contingency-plan-for-pollution-response-in-the-bering-and-chukchi-seas/, accessed 25 July 2022.

10 China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, The Netherlands, Poland, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, the UK and 25 intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations. For a full list of observers see, ‘Arctic Council Observers’, Arctic Council, available at: https://arctic-council.org/about/observers, accessed 29 November 2023.

11 ‘Russian All-Terrain Tracked Vehicle GAZ-3344-20 at BIDEC 2017’, Army Recognition, 17 October 2017, available at: https://www.armyrecognition.com/bidec_2017_official_online_show_daily_news/russian_all-terrain_tracked_vehicle_gaz-334-20_at_bidec_2017.html, accessed 25 July 2022.

12 ‘TTM-4902 Ruslan—Articulated All-Terrain Truck Carrier’, Military Today, available at: http://www.military-today.com/trucks/ttm_4902.htm, accessed 25 July 2022.

13 ‘T-80BVM—Main Battle Tank’, Military Today, available at: http://www.military-today.com/tanks/t80bvm.htm, accessed 25 July 2022.

14 ‘US Soldiers Practice Arctic Warfare in Lapland’, YLE, 15 January 2016, available at: https://yle.fi/news/3-8600292, accessed 25 July 2022; ‘US Army Special Forces in Finland for Winter War Games’, YLE, 28 February 2013, available at: https://yle.fi/news/3-6517027, accessed 25 July 2022.

15 ‘New Political Agreement on Arctic Capabilities for 1.5 Billion DKK’, Danish Ministry of Defence News, 11 February 2021, available at: https://www.fmn.dk/en/news/2021/new-political-agreement-on-arctic-capabilities-for-1.5-billion-dkk/, accessed 25 July 2022.

16 ‘Arctic Naval Refuelling Station Set to Open in 2024, 9 Years Behind Schedule’, CBC News, 19 January, available at: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/nanisivik-naval-base-nunavut-2023-update-1.6717971, accessed 13 November 2023.

17 ‘Arctic Military Activity Tracker’, Center for Strategic and International Studies, available at: https://arcticmilitarytracker.csis.org/, accessed 25 July 2022.

18 ‘Aircraft That Breached Finnish Airspace Was From Russian State, Officials Confirm’, YLE, 25 July 2019, available at: https://yle.fi/news/3-10893567, accessed 25 July 2022.

19 ‘Sweden Summons Russian Officials After Fighter Jets Fly Near Gotland Island’, EuroNews, 3 March 2022, available at: https://www.euronews.com/2022/03/03/sweden-summons-russian-officials-after-fighter-jets-fly-near-gotland-island, accessed 25 July 2022.

20 ‘Statement of Intent on Enhanced Operational Cooperation’, Regeringskansliet, 2020, available at: https://www.regeringen.se/4a7675/globalassets/regeringen/dokument/forsvarsdepartementet/soi/trilateral-statement-of-intent-on-enhanced-operational-cooperation-200923.pdf, accessed 25 July 2022.

21 ‘Nordic Council of Ministers Suspends All Co-operation with Russia’, Nordic Co-operation, 3 March 2022, available at: https://www.norden.org/en/news/nordic-council-ministers-suspends-all-co-operation-russia, accessed 25 July 2022; ‘Statements Regarding Barents Euro-Arctic Cooperation’, Barents Euro-Arctic Council, 4 March 2022, available at: https://www.barents-council.org/news/joint-statement-of-finland-denmark-iceland-norway-sweden-and-the-european-union-regarding-barents-euro-arctic-cooperation, accessed 25 July 2022; ‘Statement by the Standing Committee of Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region, March 2022’, Standing Committee of Parliamentarians in the Arctic Region, 8 March 2022, available at: https://arcticparl.org/statement-by-the-standing-committee-of-parliamentarians-of-the-arctic-region-march-2022/, accessed 25 July 2022.

Additional information

Funding

The article was written as a part of the project ARCTIC Centre for Human-to-Environment Oriented Studies: Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arctic, supported by the Masaryk University Grant Agency under MUNI/G/1540/2019.

Notes on contributors

Tomáš Vlček

Tomáš Vlček, Associate Professor, Department of International Relations and European Studies, Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University, Joštova 10, Brno 602 00, Czech Republic. Email: [email protected]

Martin Chovančík

Martin Chovančík, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations and European Studies & International Institute of Political Science, Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University, Joštova 10, Brno 602 00, Czech Republic.Email: [email protected]

Kateřina Uhlířová

Kateřina Uhlířová, Assistant Professor, Department of International and European Law, Faculty of Law, Masaryk University, Veveří 70, Brno 611 80, Czech Republic. Email: [email protected]

Martin Jirušek

Martin Jirušek, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations and European Studies & International Institute of Political Science, Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University, Joštova 10, Brno 602 00, Czech Republic. Email: [email protected]