A study of opinions about the Polish constitutional tribunal’s judgement strengthening Polish abortion laws

Abstract

Objective

In October 2020, the Polish Constitutional Tribunal (CT) ruled that in cases where there are indications of irreversible impairments of a foetus or incurable life-threatening diseases, abortions violate the Polish Constitution. Despite the fact that it was issued during the second wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Poland, this judgement caused numerous protests. The current study sought to ascertain Poles’ opinions regarding the CT’s judgement, and the ensuing threat to public health presented by the protests against it.

Material and methods

An online survey was conducted on a quota sample of adult Poles (N = 1072). The sample reflected the population structure of Poland.

Results

Only 15.5% of the people surveyed agreed that the CT’s judgement was correct. Logistic regression analysis showed that support for the CT’s ruling could be predicted by male gender, more frequent participation in religious practices, and the presence of a greater number of children in household. The majority of people (65.1%) considered protests to be necessary despite the ongoing pandemic. Cluster analysis distinguished between two groups of people, which were labelled “moderate liberals” (43.9%) and “moderate conservatives” (56.1%). There were no extreme groups - neither one that supported the CT’s judgement and condemned the protesters, nor one that supported protesters unconditionally and disagreed with the judgement.

Conclusions

Undoubtedly, there is no consensus among Poles on the issue of abortion, but the CT’s judgement, resulted in a high level of agreement between people with different views.

关于波兰宪法法院加强波兰堕胎法的裁决的意见研究 摘要

目标：2020年10月, 波兰宪法法院（Constitutional Tribunal, CT）裁决, 如果有迹象表明胎儿有不可逆转的损伤或无法治愈的危及生命的疾病, 堕胎违反波兰宪法。尽管该裁决是在波兰SARS-CoV-2第二波大流行期间发布的, 但这一裁决引发了无数抗议。目前的研究试图确定波兰人对CT裁决的看法, 以及抗议活动对公共卫生造成的威胁。

材料和方法：对波兰成年人（N=1072）进行在线调查。样本代表了波兰的人口结构。

结果：只有15.5%的被调查者同意CT的裁决是正确的。Logistic回归分析显示, 支持CT裁决的因素包括男性、更频繁地参与宗教活动以及家庭中有更多孩子。尽管疫情仍在持续, 但大多数人（65.1%）认为抗议是必要的。聚类分析区分了两组人, 分别为“温和自由派”（43.9%）和“温和保守派”（56.1%）。没有极端团体——既没有支持反恐委员会的裁决并谴责抗议者的团体, 也没有无条件支持抗议者并不同意裁决的团体。

结论：毫无疑问, 波兰人在堕胎问题上没有达成共识, 但CT的裁决导致了持不同观点的人们之间的高度一致。

Keywords:

• Abortion ban
• protests
• policy implementation
• reproductive health
• Women's Strike

Disclosure statement

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Rector of Warsaw University of Life Sciences under Grant 504-02-900200-S00127-99.