Nonlinear nexus between infectious diseases and tourism

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the nexus between infectious diseases and tourism. We study the nonlinear relationship between the number of tourists, pandemic index, and gross domestic product in eleven European countries from January 1996 to March 2021. We propose a nonlinear cointegration approach based on a panel-switching transition model; this allows the tourism variable to switch smoothly between regimes after incorporating an endogenous change in the pandemic variable. The findings reveal a nonlinear cointegration relationship between the variables. Furthermore, a nonlinear error-correction mechanism between tourism and infectious diseases is identified, provided that the pandemic index remains below a certain threshold. These results can help professionals and researchers construct strategies to restore tourism following an epidemic.

KEYWORDS:

• Nonlinear dynamics of tourism
• pandemic index
• panel smooth threshold regression
• gross domestic product
• threshold effect

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).