Saving Transition in Asia

Figures & data

Figure 1. World’s gross domestic saving rates by major regions, 1965–2019 (%).

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database.

Notes: *Member countries of the Asian Development Bank (ADB); **Countries of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia.

Table 1. Gross domestic saving rate (%)

Country/region	1960–1969	1970–1979	1980–1989	1990–1999	2000–2009	2010–2019	2020
Developing Asia^a,b	16.5	30.5	29.5	31.1	31.5	35.3	35.6
East Asia^a,c	18.1	34.4	32.6	33.0	32.5	36.8	37.5
Northeast Asia^a	21.6	31.9	33.1	37.1	40.0	41.4	39.2
China	30.7	36.7	35.0	39.6	44.2	47.1	45.2
Hong Kong SAR, China	24.0	30.8	33.6	32.0	31.6	24.5	20.8
Korea, Rep.	8.7	22.5	33.0	37.7	33.9	35.4	35.5
Taiwan	20.3	31.2	33.2	27.4	29.8	26.2	25.3
Southeast Asia^a	12.9	22.9	28.6	31.7	30.9	33.1	30.0
Cambodia	12.4	—	—	−0.3	12.4	17.8	24.9
Indonesia	5.1	19.9	26.7	28.4	28.3	33.8	31.7
Malaysia	21.4	28.0	33.3	40.6	43.0	34.0	26.2
Philippines	0.0	0.0	23.1	18.2	17.2	16.9	9.6
Singapore	9.7	28.8	43.0	49.0	48.0	53.8	54.6
Thailand	25.7	21.4	26.0	35.7	31.5	32.3	29.4
Vietnam	—	—	—	16.2	27.5	26.9	25.4
South Asia^a	8.6	11.4	14.6	21.8	26.9	28.1	26.2
Bangladesh	8.4	1.9	12.3	15.4	20.6	22.7	23.8
India	8.2	12.5	15.7	23.9	29.9	31.3	28.9
Pakistan	10.8	10.2	9.7	15.3	14.0	7.9	7.9
Nepal	0.0	6.0	11.0	12.0	10.6	10.0	6.3
Sri Lanka	11.8	15.2	17.8	18.0	16.9	23.1	18.9
Memo items
Japan	—	37.0	33.3	32.9	27.2	24.1	25.5
Latin America and the Caribbean	21.3	22.1	22.9	19.5	21.1	19.7	19.2
Sub-Saharan Africa	—	0.0	32.4	21.8	23.5	20.6	19.7
Middle East and  North Africa	25.7	32.8	24.9	24.9	33.9	28.5	15.6
OECD member countries	—	24.9	23.7	24.1	22.2	21.9	22.5
World	—	25.6	24.4	24.3	24.4	26.5	26.98

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database.

Notes: ^aGDP-share weighted average, ^bEast Asia and South Asia, ^cNortheast Asia, Southeast Asia, Pacific Island small economies, and Central Asia.

Table 2. Gross national saving (percentage of GNP), 1980–2019

	Total national saving				Government saving				Private saving
	1980–1989	1990–1999	2000–2009	2010–2019	1980–1989	1990–1999	2000–2009	2010–2019	1980–1989	1990–1999	2000–2009	2010–2019
Northeast Asia	32.5	34.2	40.7	44.8	5.0	−0.6	1.7	5.2	27.5	34.8	39.0	39.6
China	34.4	37.3	44.7	46.9	6.9	−2.6	1.5	5.2	27.5	39.8	43.1	41.7
Korea	27.3	33.5	33.5	35.4	−0.4	−0.4	1.2	6.4	27.7	34.0	32.3	29.0
Taiwan	33.3	27.4	29.8	29.6	6.2	4.0	2.5	2.2	27.1	23.4	27.3	27.5
Southeast Asia	28.1	32.8	31.4	32.7	6.6	9.7	6.9	5.0	21.6	23.1	24.5	27.6
Indonesia	28.9	28.7	26.1	32.7	8.3	10.3	10.0	6.5	20.6	18.4	16.1	26.1
Malaysia	29.2	37.5	37.5	30.2	10.5	12.0	9.4	4.3	18.7	25.5	28.0	25.9
Philippines	20.8	18.5	23.7	25.2	4.7	6.5	3.9	3.1	16.1	12.0	19.8	22.1
Singapore	33.1	48.3	46.0	48.3	1.8	15.2	5.7	8.1	31.2	33.0	40.3	40.2
Thailand	25.8	34.0	30.2	31.0	3.4	7.6	5.2	5.1	22.5	26.4	25.0	25.9
Vietnam	—	9.5	31.1	28.5	—	5.9	−0.9	−3.0	—	10.2	31.9	31.5
South Asia	16.6	23.0	30.4	31.2	0.1	0.0	0.8	−0.4	16.5	23.0	29.6	31.6
Bangladesh	3.6	17.6	22.5	27.4	−2.7	5.3	6.0	5.9	6.4	12.3	16.4	21.6
India	17.8	23.9	32.4	32.9	−0.3	−1.4	−0.3	−1.5	18.1	25.3	32.7	34.3
Pakistan	16.2	21.3	21.9	20.3	4.2	4.8	4.5	3.1	12.0	16.5	17.4	17.2
Sri Lanka	10.0	19.2	22.0	29.0	8.4	7.1	2.1	4.5	1.6	12.1	20.0	24.5
Asia	26.7	31.7	37.3	41.0	3.9	1.8	2.5	4.3	22.8	29.9	34.9	36.7
Asia excluding China	23.8	29.5	31.5	32.7	2.7	3.5	2.9	3.1	21.0	26.0	28.6	29.6
Memo item
China’s share (in total value) (%)	35.1	34.5	54.5	67.8	48.6	53.7	43.3	70.1	32.8	39.1	55.4	67.5

Source: Compiled from Asian Development Bank Key Indicators for Asia and Pacific database.

Table 3. Determinants of private saving (PSR)^a

	All 12 countries		Excluding China
Long-run estimates
GY [Growth rate of GNI (%)]	1.268***	(0.124)	1.448***	(0.241)
YDEP [Young dependency (%)]	−0.169***	(0.054)	−0.169***	(0.044)
ADEP [Aged dependency (%)]	0.286	(0.417)	0.371	(0.403)
EOR [Export/GNI (%)]	0.032***	(0.005)	0.030***	(0.007)
GY*EOR	0.085***	(0.020)	0.048**	(0.023)
RID [Real interest rate (%)]	0.387*	(0.226)	0.419*	(0.225)
BBL [Budget balance/GNI (%)]	0.347	(0.291)	0.290	(0.308)
INF [Inflation rate (%)]	−0.018	(0.485)	0.020	(0.555)
FS [Foreign capital inflow/GNI (%)]	0.300***	(0.043)	0.279***	(0.020)
CRP [Bank lending/GNI (%)]	−0.159**	(0.065)	−0.159**	(0.071)
FND [Financial deepening; M3/GNI (%)]	0.026	(0.138)	0.022	(0.155)
ECT	−0.154***	(0.016)	−0.156***	(0.013)
Short-run estimates
ΔGYt	0.252***	(0.050)	0.256***	(0.056)
ΔRIDt	−0.061**	(0.030)	−0.063*	(0.035)
ΔBBLt	−0.101**	(0.044)	−0.115***	(0.040)
AFC	0.004**	(0.002)	0.004***	(0.002)
GFC	0.005***	(0.000)	0.005***	(0.000)
Constant	0.109***	(0.033)	0.108***	(0.032)
ARDL^b	(1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)		(1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)
Hausman test (MG, DFE)	0.01		0.01
Estimator	DFE		DFE
Adjust-R square	0.317		0.360
Number of observations	444		407
Number of countries	12		11

Notes: ^aHeteroscedasticity corrected standard errors are in parentheses; ***^, **^, and * denote statistically significant at 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1 levels, respectively; ^bLag length of each variable determined in the estimation process based on the Akaike information criterion.