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Research Article

Financial system dynamics model for multidimensional flexibility in toll road PPPs: a life-cycle analysis

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Received 21 Feb 2023, Accepted 20 Mar 2024, Published online: 27 Apr 2024

Figures & data

Table 1. Search strategy.

Figure 1. Simulation model’s stages, activities, and data sources.

Figure 1. Simulation model’s stages, activities, and data sources.

Table 2. Exogeneous parameters.

Figure 2. CLD.

Figure 2. CLD.

Figure 3. SFD.

Figure 3. SFD.

Figure 4. Behavior reproduction test for the baseline scenario. (i) Project 1; (ii) Project 2.

Figure 4. Behavior reproduction test for the baseline scenario. (i) Project 1; (ii) Project 2.

Table 3. Description of concessionaire’s interventions.

Figure 5. Impact of concessionaire’s interventions on the model’s feedback structure.

Figure 5. Impact of concessionaire’s interventions on the model’s feedback structure.

Figure 6. Effect of concessionaire’s interventions on outcomes. (a) Cash Flow to Equity Project 1. (b) Cash Flow to Equity Project 2. (c) DSCR Project 1. (d) DSCR Project 2.

Figure 6. Effect of concessionaire’s interventions on outcomes. (a) Cash Flow to Equity Project 1. (b) Cash Flow to Equity Project 2. (c) DSCR Project 1. (d) DSCR Project 2.

Figure 7. Results baseline vs. scenarios on the free cash flow to equity for project 1 (a) and Project 2 (b).

Figure 7. Results baseline vs. scenarios on the free cash flow to equity for project 1 (a) and Project 2 (b).

Figure 8. Results baseline vs. scenarios on the DSCR for project 1 (a) and project 2 (b).

Figure 8. Results baseline vs. scenarios on the DSCR for project 1 (a) and project 2 (b).

Table 4. Simulation results for the scenarios.

Figure 9. Effect of interventions on the free cash flow to equity for: (a) Scenario 1- Project 1. (b) Scenario1- Project 2. (c) Scenario 2- Project 1. (d) Scenario 2- Project 2. (e) Scenario 3- Project 1. (f) Scenario3- Project 2.

Figure 9. Effect of interventions on the free cash flow to equity for: (a) Scenario 1- Project 1. (b) Scenario1- Project 2. (c) Scenario 2- Project 1. (d) Scenario 2- Project 2. (e) Scenario 3- Project 1. (f) Scenario3- Project 2.

Figure 10. Effect of interventions on the DSCR for: (a) Scenario 1 -– Project 1. (b) Scenario 1 -– Project 2. (c)Scenario2- Project 1. (d) Scenario 2- Project 2. (e) Scenario 3- Project 1. (f) Scenario3- Project 2.

Figure 10. Effect of interventions on the DSCR for: (a) Scenario 1 -– Project 1. (b) Scenario 1 -– Project 2. (c)Scenario2- Project 1. (d) Scenario 2- Project 2. (e) Scenario 3- Project 1. (f) Scenario3- Project 2.

Table 5. Description of concessionaire’s interventions.

Data availability statement

Data generated or analyzed during the study are available from the corresponding authors by request.