Air quality co-benefits of subnational carbon policies

Figures & data

Table 1. Incidence values associated with changes to ozone as a result of two regional GHG policies.

			CES		CAT
End Point	Study	Pooling Method	Northeast U.S.	Other U.S.	Northeast U.S.	Other U.S.
Premature mortality—short-term	Smith et al. (2009)	Studies presented individually	39 (19, 58)	−9 (−5, −14)	9 (4, 13)	2 (1, 3)
	Zanobetti and Schwartz (2008)		64 (34, 93)	−16 (−8, −23)	15 (8, 21)	4 (2, 6)
Hospital admissions—respiratory	Katsouyanni et al. (2009)		74 (−17, 165)	−17 (4, −38)	18 (−4, 39)	5 (−1, 10)
Asthma-related emergency department visits	Glad et al. (2012)	Random/fixed-effects pooling	205 (19, 635)	−49 (−154, −5)	21 (2, 62)	12 (1, 36)
	Ito et al. (2007)
	Mar and Koenig (2010)
	Peel et al. (2005)
	Sarnat et al. (2013)
	Wilson et al. (2005)
Asthma exacerbation	Mortimer et al. (2002)	Random/fixed-effects pooling	68971 (−20923, 138957)	−21416 (−43253, 6483)	13905 (−4220, 28032)	4513 (−1369, 9107)
	Schildcrout et al. (2006)
School loss days	Chen et al. (2000)	Random/fixed-effects pooling	50061 (17685, 111203)	−15557 (−34641, −5494)	10083 (3563, 22409)	3280 (1159, 7296)
	Gilliland et al. (2001)
Acute respiratory symptoms	Ostro and Rothschild (1989)		145764 (60137, 230986)	−41550 (−17133, −65879)	28418 (11724, 45034)	9581 (3952, 15185)

Table 2. Incidence values associated with changes to PM_2.5 as a result of two regional GHG policies.

			CES		CAT
End Point	Study	Pooling Method	Northeast U.S.	Other U.S.	Northeast U.S.	Other U.S.
Premature mortality—all-cause	Krewski et al. (2009)	Studies presented individually	4206 (3061, 5341)	863 (628, 1097)	2285 (1663, 2903)	270 (197, 344)
	Lepeule et al. (2012)		9481 (5499, 13422)	1951 (1131, 2765)	5152 (2987, 7295)	613 (355, 869)
	Woodruff et al. (1997)		6 (3, 9)	2 (1, 2)	3 (1, 4)	1 (0, 1)
Nonfatal heart attacks	Peters et al. (2001)	Equal-weights pooling	857 (99, 1862)	185 (21, 401)	491 (56, 1060)	60 (7, 127)
	Pope et al. (2006)
	Sullivan et al. (2005)
	Zanobetti et al. (2009)
	Zanobetti and Schwartz (2006)
Hospital admissions—respiratory	Zanobetti et al. (2009)	Equal-weights pooling	1331 (−241, 2422)	289 (−52, 526)	750 (−136, 1363)	100 (−17, 181)
	Kloog et al. (2012)
Hospital Admissions—chronic lung disease	Moolgavkar (2000)	Random/fixed-effects with others
Hospital admissions—asthma	Babin et al. (2007)	Randon/fixed-effects pooling
	Sheppard (2003)
Hospital admissions—cardiovascular	Zanobetti et al. (2009)	Equal-weights pooling	912 (376, 2094)	183 (88, 408)	495 (198, 1142)	63 (30, 138)
	Peng et al. (2009)
	Peng et al. (2008)
	Bell et al. (2008)
	Moolgavkar (2000)	Sum dependent
Asthma-related emergency department visits	Glad et al. (2012)	Random/fixed-effects pooling	2376 (−412, 4582)	388 (−67, 748)	1395 (−242, 2685)	129 (−23, 247)
	Mar et al. (2010)
	Slaughter et al. (2005)
Acute bronchitis	Dockery et al. (1996)		5281 (−193, 10616)	1134 (−41, 2290)	2873 (−105, 5781)	380 (−14, 769)
Astham exacerbation	Ostro et al. (2001)	Random/fixed-effects pooling	239976 (12715, 1272369)	51322 (2722, 271190)	130294 (6913, 687900)	17101 (911, 99778)
	Mar et al. (2004)
Work loss days	Ostro (1987)		448247 (390536, 505538)	94525 (82370, 106587)	253358 (220795, 285667)	30035 (26198, 33836)
Acute respiratory symptoms	Ostro and Rothschild (1989)		2650745 (2239384, 3058823)	558257 (471792, 643970)	1494595 (1263278, 1723843)	176564 (149497, 203291)
Upper respiratory symptoms	Pope et al. (1991)		97264 (30438, 163588)	20832 (6521, 35027)	52719 (16503, 88640)	6954 (2179, 11682)
Lower respiratory symptoms	Schwartz and Neas (2000)		67239 (32417, 101402)	14318 (6925, 21524)	36197 (17518, 54386)	4657 (2286, 6890)

Note. Values (shown with 95% confidence intervals associated with crf only) are presented for both the policy-covered NE U.S., and all other areas in the U.S. (no policy constraints) for the year 2030.

Figure 1. Time series of total U.S. carbon emissions from 2010 to 2030 for Business as Usual (no policy; black line), and two subnational carbon cap scenarios applied to the Northeast only: Clean Energy Standard (green dashed line) and Cap and Trade (blue dashed line). Please note range of x-axis.

Figure 2. Year 2030 annual change of five common air pollutants (in million tons) due to Clean Energy Standard and Cap and Trade policy scenarios, summed for the Northeast states, and all other states.

Figure 3. Spatial maps showing the modeled changes in ozone (ppb; left column) and PM_2.5 (µg/m³; right column) as a result of three policy scenarios: Clean Energy Standard (top row) and economy-wide Cap and Trade (bottom row). States covered by policy are shown in gray. Ozone results are averaged daily maximum 8 hr from May to September (the “ozone season”), whereas PM_2.5 results are an annual average.

Figure 4. Economic costs (blue bar) of the regional carbon policies presented with human health co-benefits (black line) associated with each scenario with 95% confidence intervals (gray line) associated with concentration-response functions and valuation. Values are in 2006 U.S. dollars and as a 2030 annual total.

Smith, R.L., B. Xu, and P. Switzer. 2009. Reassessing the relationship between ozone and short- term mortality in U.S. urban communities. Inhal. Toxicol. 21:37–61. doi:10.1080/08958370903161612

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Zanobetti, A, and J. Schwartz. 2008. Mortality displacement in the association of ozone with mortality: An analysis of 48 cities in the United States. Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. 177:184–189. doi:10.1164/rccm.200706-823OC

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Katsouyanni, K., J.M. Samet, H.R. Anderson, R. Atkinson, A. Le Tertre, S. Medina, E. Samoli, G. Touloumi, R.T. Burnett, D. Krewski, and T. Ramsay. 2009. Air Pollution and Health: A European and North American Approach (APHENA). Boston, MA: Health Effects Institute, (142), 5–90.

 Google Scholar

Glad, J.A., L.L. Brink, E.O. Talbott, P.C. Lee, X. Xu, M. Saul, and J. Rager. 2012. The relationship of ambient ozone and PM2.5 levels and asthma emergency department visits: Possible influence of gender and ethnicity. Arch. Environ. Occup. Health 62:103–108. doi:10.1080/19338244.2011.598888

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Ito, K., G.D. Thurston, and R.A. Silverman. 2007. Characterization of PM2.5, gaseous pollutants, and meteorological interactions in the context of time-series health effects models. J. Expo. Sci. Environ. Epidemiol. 17(Suppl. 2):S45–S60.

 Google Scholar

Mar, T. F., J. Q. Koenig, and J. Primomo. 2010. Associations between asthma emergency visits and particulate matter sources, including diesel emissions from stationary generators in Tacoma, Washington. Inhal. Toxicol. 22:445–448. doi:10.3109/08958370903575774

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Peel, J.L., P.E. Tolbert, M. Klein, K.B. Metzger, W.D. Flanders, K. Todd, J.A. Mulholland, P.B. Ryan, and H. Frumkin. 2005. Ambient air pollution and respiratory emergency department visits. Epidemiology 16:164–174. doi:10.1097/01.ede.0000152905.42113.db

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Sarnat, J.A., S.E. Sarnat, W.D. Flanders, H.H. Chang, J. Mulholland, L. Baxter, and H. Ozkaynak. 2013. Spatiotemporally resolved air exchange rate as a modifier of acute air pollution-related morbidity in Atlanta. J. Expo. Sci. Environ. Epidemiol. 23(6):606–615. doi: 10.1038/jes.2013.32.

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Wilson, A.M., C.P. Wake, T. Kelly, T., and J.C. Salloway. 2005. Air pollution and weather, and respiratory emergency room visits in two northern New England cities: An ecological time-series study. Environ. Res. 97:312–321. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2004.07.010

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Mortimer, K.M., L.M. Neas, D.W. Dockery, S. Redline, and I.B. Tager. 2002. The effect of air pollution on innercity children with asthma. Eur. Respir. J. 19:699–705. doi:10.1183/09031936.02.00247102

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Schildcrout, J.S., L. Sheppard, T. Lumley, J.C. Slaughter, J.Q. Koenig, and G.G. Shapiro. 2006. Ambient air pollution and asthma exacerbations in children: An eight-city analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 164:505–517. doi:10.1093/aje/kwj225

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Chen, L., B.L. Jennison, W. Yang, and S.T. Omaye. 2000. Elementary school absenteeism and air pollution. Inhal. Toxicol. 12:997–1016. doi 10.1080/08958370050164626

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Gilliland, F.D., K. Berhane, E.B. Rappaport, D.C. Thomas, E. Avol, W.J. Gauderman, et al. 2001. The effects of ambient air pollution on school absenteeism due to respiratory illnesses. Epidemiology 12:43–54. doi:10.1097/00001648-200101000-00009

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Ostro, B.D., and S. Rothschild. 1989. Air Pollution and acute respiratory morbidity: An observational study of multiple pollutants. Environ. Res. 50:238–247. doi:10.1016/S0013-9351(89)80004-0

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Krewski, D., M. Jerrett, R.T. Burnett, R. Ma, E. Hughes, Y. Shi, M.C. Turner, C.A. Pope III, G. Thurston, E.E. Calle, and M.J. Thun. 2009. Extended follow-up and spatial analysis of the American Cancer Society study linking particulate air pollution and mortality. Res. Rep. Health Eff. Inst. 140(5):5–114; discussion 115–136.

 Google Scholar

Lepeule, J., F. Laden, D. Dockery, and J. Schwartz. 2012. Chronic exposure to fine particles and mortality: An extended follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities Study from 1974 to 2009. Environ. Health Perspect. 120:965–970. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1104660.

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Woodruff, T.J., J. Grillo, and K.C. Schoendorf. 1997. The relationship between selected of postneonatal infant mortality and particulate air pollution in the United States. Environ. Health Perspect. 105:608–612. doi:10.1289/ehp.97105608

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Peters, A., D. W. Dockery, J. E. Muller, and M. A. Mittleman. 2001. Increased particulate air pollution and the triggering of myocardial infarction. Circulation 103:2810–2815. doi:10.1161/01.CIR.103.23.2810

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Pope, C. A., III, J.B. Muhlestein, H.T. May, D.G. Renlund, J.L. Anderson, and B.D. Horne. 2006. Ischemic heart disease events triggered by short-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. Circulation 114:2443–2448. doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.106.636977

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Sullivan, J., L. Sheppard, A. Schreuder, N. Ishikawa, D. Siscovick, and J. Kaufman. 2005. Relation between short-term fine-particulate matter exposure and onset of myocardial infarction. Epidemiology 16:41–48. doi:10.1097/01.ede.0000147116.34813.56

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Zanobetti, A., M. Franklin and J. Schwartz. 2009. Fine particulate air pollution and its components in association with cause-specific emergency admissions. Environmental Health 8:58–60.

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Zanobetti A., and J. Schwartz. 2006. Air pollution and emergency admissions in Boston, MA. J. Epidemiol. Community Health 60:890–895. doi:10.1136/jech.2005.039834

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Kloog, I., B.A. Coull, A. Zanobetti, P.Koutrakis, and J.D. Schwartz. 2012. Acute and chronic effects of particles on hospital admissions in New England. PLoS ONE. 7 (4):1–8.

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Moolgavkar, S.H. 2000. Air pollution and hospital admissions for diseases of the circulatory system in three U.S. metropolitan areas. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 50:1199–1206. doi:10.1080/10473289.2000.10464162

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Babin, S.M., H.S. Burkom, R.S. Holtry, N.R. Tabernero, L.D. Stokes, J.O. Davies-Cole, K. DeHaan, and D.H. Lee. 2007. Pediatric patient asthma-related emergency department visits and admissions in Washington, DC, from 2001–2004, and associations with air quality, socio-economic status and age group. Environ. Health 6(1):1. doi:10.1186/1476-069X-6-9.

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Sheppard, L. 2003. Ambient air pollution and nonelderly asthma hospital admissions in Seattle, Washington, 1987–1994. In Revised Analyses of Time-Series Studies of Air Pollution and Health, 227–230. Special Report. Boston, MA: Health Effects Institute.

 Google Scholar

Peng, R.D., M.L. Bell, A.S. Geyh, A. McDermott, S.L. Zeger, J.M. Samet, and F. Dominici. 2009. Emergency admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and the chemical composition of fine particle air pollution. Environ. Health Perspect. 117:957–963. doi:10.1289/ehp.0800185

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Peng, R.D., H.H. Chang, M.L. Bell, A. McDermott, S.L. Zeger, J.M. Samet, and F. Dominici. 2008. Coarse particulate matter air pollution and hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases among Medicare patients. JAMA 299:2172–2179. doi:10.1001/jama.299.18.2172

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Slaughter, J.C., E. Kim, L. Sheppard, J.H. Sullivan, T.V. Larson, and C. Claiborn. 2005. Association between particulate matter and emergency room visits, hospital admissions and mortality in Spokane, Washington. J. Expo. Anal. Environ. Epidemiol. 15(2):153–159. doi:10.1038/sj.jea.7500382

 Google Scholar

Dockery, D.W., J. Cunningham, A.I. Damokosh, L.M. Neas, J.D. Spengler, P. Koutrakis, J.H. Ware, M. Raizenne, and F.E. Speizer. 1996. Health effects of acid aerosols on North American children-respiratory symptoms. Environ. Health Perspect. 104:500–505. doi:10.1289/ehp.96104500

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Ostro, B., M. Lipsett, J. Mann, H. Braxton-Owens, and M. White. 2001. Air pollution and exacerbation of asthma in African-American children in Los Angeles. Epidemiology 12:200–208. doi:10.1097/00001648-200103000-00012

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Mar, T. F., T.V. Larson, R.A. Stier, C. Claiborn, and J.Q. Koenig. 2004. An analysis of the association between respiratory symptoms in subjects with asthma and daily air pollution in Spokane, Washington. Inhal. Toxicol. 16:809–815. doi:10.1080/08958370490506646

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Ostro, B.D. 1987. Air pollution and morbidity revisited: A specification test. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 14:87–98. doi:10.1016/0095-0696(87)90008-8

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Pope, C.A., D.W. Dockery, J.D. Spengler, and M.E. Raizenne. 1991. Respiratory health and PM10 pollution: A daily time series analysis. Am Rev Respir Dis 144:668–674. doi:10.1164/ajrccm/144.3_Pt_1.668

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Schwartz, J., and L.M. Neas. 2000. Fine particles are more strongly associated than coarse particles with acute respiratory health effects in schoolchildren. Epidemiology 11:6–10. doi:10.1097/00001648-200001000-00004

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar