Poliovirus vaccination during the endgame: insights from integrated modeling

Figures & data

Figure 1. Cumulative distribution functions of the number of monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV) doses of each serotype used in 1,000 iterations of a global model for long-term poliovirus risk management with base case assumptions for outbreak probabilities and outbreak response [36,53]

Figure 2. (a) Relationship between the number of desired finished doses, the total stockpile size, and the probability of a stock-out for serotype 1 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine, based on the 1,000 iterations depicted in Figure 1, a finishing time of 5 months, and an effective shelf-life of 18 months. (b) Lowest attainable stock-out probability by the number of desired finished doses and corresponding minimum total stockpile size

Figure 3. Relationship between the stockpile size and lowest attainable probability of a stock-out based on the 1,000 iterations depicted in Figure 1, for different assumptions. (a) Results by monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV) serotype, with a finishing time of 5 months and a shelf life of 18 months (b) Results for serotype 1 mOPV by finishing time, with a shelf life of 18 months (c) Results for serotype 1 mOPV by shelf-life and as a function of the number of desired finished doses, with a finishing time of 5 months (d) Results for serotype 1 mOPV by shelf-life and as a function of total stockpile size, with a finishing time of 5 months

Table 1. Optimal stockpile composition for each monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV) serotype for different stock-out probabilities, assuming a finishing time of 5 months and an effective shelf life of 18 months, based on 1000 iterations of a global model [36,53]

Vaccine	Total stockpile doses (millions), by desired maximum stock-out probability			Desired finished dose level (millions), by desired maximum stock-out probability
	5%	1%	<0.1%^b	5%	1%	<0.1%^b
mOPV1	620	1040	1550	154	257	337
mOPV2^a	480	630	950	119	157	235
mOPV3	490	620	840	122	154	209

^aDoes not include doses already deployed or ordered.

^bUse of 1000 iterations implies probability of less than 0.1%.

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