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Middle East respiratory syndrome: obstacles and prospects for vaccine development

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Figure 1. Hypothesized transmission of MERS-CoV from animal hosts to humans. (A) MERS-CoV is potentially transmitted by infected bats to African one-humped camels, which are often exported to the Arabian Peninsula. (B) Vaccination of one-humped camels could, therefore, prevent further transmission of the virus to humans and subsequent human-to-human transmission if one-humped camels are indeed the primary route of infection for humans.

Figure 1. Hypothesized transmission of MERS-CoV from animal hosts to humans. (A) MERS-CoV is potentially transmitted by infected bats to African one-humped camels, which are often exported to the Arabian Peninsula. (B) Vaccination of one-humped camels could, therefore, prevent further transmission of the virus to humans and subsequent human-to-human transmission if one-humped camels are indeed the primary route of infection for humans.

Figure 2. Estimation of major hospital costs affiliated with a MERS outbreak. Average cost per day per in-patient Citation[147,148] was multiplied by the median number of days for total cost per treatment. In-patient stay: US average of US$3145/day × 14 days median for a MERS in-patient = US$44,030.00; intensive care unit stay: US$16,474 × 22 days = US$362,430; mechanical ventilation: US$23,750 × 11.5 days = US$273,139; renal replacement therapy: US$3819 × 7 days = US$26,734; total: sum of in-patient costs after multiplying by the percentage required and adding the additional administrative costs of US$79,150 per in-patient = US$713,942. An in-patient requiring all interventions would incur expenses of more than US$785,000.

Figure 2. Estimation of major hospital costs affiliated with a MERS outbreak. Average cost per day per in-patient Citation[147,148] was multiplied by the median number of days for total cost per treatment. In-patient stay: US average of US$3145/day × 14 days median for a MERS in-patient = US$44,030.00; intensive care unit stay: †US$16,474 × 22 days = US$362,430; mechanical ventilation: †US$23,750 × 11.5 days = US$273,139; renal replacement therapy: US$3819 × 7 days = US$26,734; total: sum of in-patient costs after multiplying by the percentage required and adding the additional administrative costs of US$79,150 per in-patient = US$713,942. An in-patient requiring all interventions would incur expenses of more than US$785,000.

Table 1. Functions of nonstructural, major structural and accessory structural proteins of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus.

Figure 3. Idealized vaccine development timeline from post-discovery to pre-regulatory submission. A simplified timeline illustrates the potential pitfalls encountered throughout the development process. Optimistic estimates for vaccine development from candidate selection to industrial production fall between 3.5 and 4 years, depending on the type of vaccine. After adding 2–3 years for research prior to candidate selection and 2–3 years for regulatory submission and licensure once a final formulation is in hand, total time is approximately 10 years. As discovery methods and bureaucratic processes and approvals are accelerating, the overall timeline could realistically shrink to 6–7 years.

Figure 3. Idealized vaccine development timeline from post-discovery to pre-regulatory submission. A simplified timeline illustrates the potential pitfalls encountered throughout the development process. Optimistic estimates for vaccine development from candidate selection to industrial production fall between 3.5 and 4 years, depending on the type of vaccine. After adding 2–3 years for research prior to candidate selection and 2–3 years for regulatory submission and licensure once a final formulation is in hand, total time is approximately 10 years. As discovery methods and bureaucratic processes and approvals are accelerating, the overall timeline could realistically shrink to 6–7 years.

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