Factors affecting eGFR 5-year post-deceased donor renal transplant: analysis and predictive model

Figures & data

Table 1. Demographic results of predictive and test model cohorts.

Variable	Overall	Group1 (Derivation cohort)	Group 2 (Validation cohort)	p Value
eGFR at 5 years post-transplant	49.6 [36.9–60.9]	49.5 [37.3–61.8]	49.9 [36.6–60.2]	0.676
Recipient age	43 [32–53]	42 [32–53]	43 [33–53]	0.344
Donor age	36 [21–47]	34 [21–47]	37 [22–47]	0.379
Recipient sex M/F	63/37	64/36	63/37	0.894
Donor sex M/F	60/40	61/39	59/41	0.701
Time on dialysis (months)	16.7 [9.8–27.8]	16.7 [9.67–29.1]	16.8 [10.2–27.3]	0.796
Diabetes as primary ESRD	4.3	3.7	4.9	0.344
Transplant number >1	17.9	17.8	18	0.861
CIT (h)	20 [18–24]	20 [18–24]	20 [18–24]	0.947
PRA group^a	75/13/12	75/15/10	76/11/13	0.169
Number HLA mismatches	3 [2–4]	3 [2–3]	3 [2–3]	0.58
Haemodialysis/peritoneal dialysis/pre-emptive	64/34/2	66/32/2	62/35/3	0.458

Notes: Patients were divided into two groups using alternating consecutive sampling.

^a0–10%, 11–49%, 5–100%. Median [Interquartile range] used for continuous variables, percentages used for categorical variables.

Figure 1. Graft survival 5 years post-transplant by era.

Figure 2. Causes of end stage renal disease in transplant recipients.

Figure 3. Factors related to eGFR at 5 years post-transplant.

Table 2. ANOVA model for derivation cohort.

Source	F distribution	p Value
Model	4.93	<0.001
Era	1.47	0.232
Recipient age	1.29	0.266
Recipient sex	10.22	0.001
Donor age	11.95	<0.001
Donor sex	0.11	0.735
Number of HLA mismatches PRA group	0.55	0.77
Delayed graft function	1.58	0.206
Transplant number	1.76	0.185
Diabetes as primary cause of ESRD	0.76	0.517
Acute rejection	0.31	0.579
Tacrolimus use^a	7.64	0.006
CMV disease	5.9	0.015
Residual	5.78	0.016

Note: ^aAs primary immunosuppression therapy compared to cyclosporine.

Table 3. Reduced ANOVA model for derivation cohort.

Source	F distribution	p Value
Model	14.04	<0.001
Recipient sex	11.84	<0.001
Donor age	12.45	<0.001
Acute rejection	11.22	<0.001
Tacrolimus	27.51	<0.001
CMV disease	8.13	0.005

Figure 4. Pedicted and actual eGFR at 5 years per era.

Table 4. ANOVA model for validation cohort.

Source	F distribution	p Value
Model	14.74	<0.001
Recipient sex	41.61	<0.001
Donor age	13.8	<0.001
Acute rejection	7.64	0.006
Tacrolimus	21.38	<0.001
CMV disease	2.5	0.115