Projections of total hip replacement in Sweden from 2013 to 2030

Figures & data

Table 1. Overview of the evolution of the Swedish population from 1970 to 2010 and the official forecast for 2020 and 2030

			Life expectancy
Year	Population	Foreign-born	Men	Women
1970	8,081,229	–	72	77
1980	8,317,937	–	73	79
1990	8,590,630	–	75	80
2000	8,882,792	1,003,798	77	82
2010	9,415,570	1,384,929	80	84
2020	10,200,459	1,889,364	81	85
2030	10,660,644	2,007,019	83	86
		Age distribution
	< 40 y	40–59 y	60–79 y	≥ 80 y
1970	4,460,168	2,028,518	1,402,289	190,167
1980	4,610,136	1,866,990	1,577,470	263,341
1990	4,490,257	2,150,431	1,580,364	369,578
2000	4,508,136	2,401,292	1,520,802	452,562
2010	4,613,254	2,450,925	1,854,487	496,904
2020	4,966,091	2,570,152	2,117,308	546,908
2030	5,034,633	2,595,266	2,218,356	812,089

Figure 1. Annual number of total hip replacements registered in Sweden, 1968–2012.

Figure 2. The recorded and projected incidence of total hip arthroplasty per 10⁵ Swedish residents aged 40 years or older, 2013–2040. A. Projections based on Poisson regression. B. Projections based on asymptotic modeling, with the gray horizontal line representing the estimated asymptote and the associated 95% confidence intervals of the best model; asymptotic regression.

Table 2. Prognosis for the evolution of the Swedish population between 2013 and 2030: the expected number and proportion of Swedish residents aged 40 years and older together with the predicted incidence per 10⁵ Swedish residents aged 40 years and older and the expected number of total hip replacements (THRs) in Sweden as predicted by asymptotic regression

Year	Total population	Population ≥ 40 y	Proportion ≥ 40 y	Incidence	95% PI ^a	Expected no. of THRs
2013	9,652,709	4,947,192	0.513	324	288–357	16,021
2014	9,737,738	4,997,390	0.513	324	291–360	16,318
2015	9,821,281	5,042,118	0.513	329	293–363	16,595
2016	9,905,548	5,082,444	0.513	334	295–366	16,854
2017	9,986,306	5,120,677	0.513	334	297–368	17,104
2018	10,063,638	5,156,449	0.512	336	299–371	17,343
2019	10,135,790	5,194,795	0.513	339	301–373	17,588
2020	10,200,459	5,234,368	0.513	341	303–376	17,834
2021	10,259,221	5,269,706	0.514	343	305–378	18,063
2022	10,314,592	5,304,478	0.514	345	306–380	18,288
2023	10,368,078	5,337,914	0.515	347	308–383	18,505
2024	10,418,813	5,372,586	0.516	349	309–385	18,725
2025	10,466,388	5,410,267	0.517	350	311–387	18,952
2026	10,511,030	5,448,911	0.518	352	312–389	19,180
2027	10,552,673	5,487,684	0.520	354	313–390	19,407
2028	10,591,303	5,531,168	0.522	355	315–393	19,648
2029	10,627,078	5,575,927	0.525	357	316–395	19,892
2030	10,660,344	5,625,711	0.528	358	317–396	20,152

^a prediction interval.