New Zealand and Antarctica in a changing climate – where are we at, where are we going, and what do we do about it?

ABSTRACT

The changing climate is threatening everything we hold dear, increasing dangers to food production, to the availability of water, to land and to livelihoods across the globe. In the past century, humanity has become the dominant force shaping the climate system, ramping up greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. To halt climate change, emissions of greenhouse gases must be reduced to zero as soon as possible. However, the necessary action has not been forthcoming and the overall response has been painfully slow, for a number of reasons. This special issue of the Journal of the Royal Society Te Apārangi addresses many of these issues, with a focus on Aotearoa New Zealand, looking at how we think about climate change and the nature and pace of our response.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• sustainability
• Te Ao Māori
• behaviour change
• adaptation

The changing climate is threatening everything we hold dear, increasing dangers to food production, to the availability of water, to land and to livelihoods across the globe. In the past century, humanity has become the dominant force shaping the climate system, ramping up greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. We hear every week now about extreme events somewhere in the world associated with climate change, be they heatwaves, fires, droughts, floods or sea level rise. Aotearoa New Zealand is affected, as is every country on the planet. A series of heavy rainfall and flood events in 2023 brought misery and on-going uncertainty to many communities in Aotearoa New Zealand and it is clear that the costs to communities and to economic activity will only climb from here.

The science on climate change and its impacts has been clear since at least the 1980s, and the basic principles for over a century (Arrhenius 1896; Charney et al. 1979; IPCC 2021). Yet, for all the international agreements, the COP meetings, and the policy talk, global emissions of greenhouse gases have not yet come down. In fact they have gone up almost every year, apart from short interruptions associated with the Covid-19 pandemic and financial crises. It is now clear that the globe will push through 1.5°C of warming within the next decade, with individual years exceeding that limit possibly as soon as this year. Two degrees of warming could be exceeded within a decade after that, with increasingly dire consequences worldwide. Why do we persist with this global-scale self harm, and what does this mean for Aotearoa New Zealand, you might ask?

This special issue of the Journal of the Royal Society Te Apārangi addresses many of these issues, with a focus on Aotearoa New Zealand. We have collected eight papers exploring aspects of changes in the physical climate and its consequences, how we think about climate change and the nature and pace of our response.

One of the main themes coming through is about climate change-compounded impacts and risk, how they are changing, and why we need an integrated approach to responding to them to future proof our communities. Floods are the most frequent damaging natural hazard in this country, as we have seen clearly this year. Silvia Serrao-Neumann and co-authors explore the changing nature of flooding in Aotearoa New Zealand (Serrao-Neumann et al. 2023), noting that flood volumes are increasing as the warming atmosphere becomes more loaded with moisture. They point out that the country has no consistent approach to risk assessment for flooding and how it is changing, leading to regional disparities in responses on top of disparities in adaptive capacity. A start has been made through the research programme ‘Mā te haumaru ō nga puna wai’, gathering ideas from practitioners, researchers and communities. While a national strategy is crucial, it is clear that responses must be local as each community faces different issues. There is a need for different communities to have access to relevant data and tools to enable local responses. Adequate funding is also required to take the necessary actions, but that is just one component. As the authors point out, there are economic costs and social costs associated with flooding events. Damage to the fabric of communities is at least as important as damage to regional and national economies.

Similar messages come from study of the impacts of sea level rise across Aotearoa New Zealand, in the work by Richard Levy and co-authors (Levy et al. 2023). Here, local impacts are complicated by local vertical land movement, recently mapped at high spatial resolution by the NZ Sea Rise team. There is a need for integration of data and modelling results, with more precise and localised sea level rise projections, along with a focus on the local impacts of the rising seas, where possible. Communication strategies must also be improved and engagement with communities nationwide is critical, as there is so much at stake as the ocean encroaches upon diverse coastal lands. There is huge public interest in the implications of this work, as the consequences affect all communities near the coast – now and for the foreseeable future.

The future of forestry in a changing climate and its role as a carbon sink is investigated by Grace Villamor and co-authors (Villamor et al. 2023), who discuss foresters’ perceptions of climate-related risks and the barriers to adaptation. There is a mix of perceptions and knowledge of climate change across the forestry community, and adaptive capacity varies across the sector, along with motivation to take adaptive action. Again, relevant climate change information and data is important, to help integrate approaches to adaptation in this sector of the economy. That theme of integration is explored in detail in the paper by Judy Lawrence and co-authors (Lawrence et al. 2023) who look explicitly at an integrative approach to climate change adaptation. As climate change impacts increase in severity, the authors see the need for greater integration and coordination of different approaches, from improved modelling and monitoring to elevating Māori values and ethics in future climate planning and policy that challenge the way people relate to, manage, and use the natural environment. While adaptation approaches will require us to be flexible and dynamic, the scale and scope of climate change impacts guarantee that the future will not be like the past.

Looking to the future, Cate Macinnis-Ng and co-authors (Macinnis-Ng et al. 2023) have conducted a horizon-scan, arguing that while the threats to Aotearoa New Zealand are large, there are also opportunities. We face severe impacts from strengthened extreme events, as well as dangers from inadequate and disjointed policy responses, all of which could eat away at the fabric of our society. However, economic reorganisation and transformation can be a big opportunity for this country, if we can move to manufacturing climate-friendly products and away from those that are more damaging to the environment. Here again, the value and benefits of Māori perspectives are identified, as is the potential for youth a chance to ‘get in on the ground floor’ of the transformations we need to see. The transgressive nature of sudden and slow-onset climate change impacts, cutting across economic and social sectors implies integrative approaches to responses are imperative, cutting out siloed thinking where possible. Paul Callister and Robert McLachlan (2023) argue that the future must be one of less air travel, as the claims made around decarbonising aviation just do not stack up. Hence, to reduce emissions from the aviation sector, there is a need for a national strategy on how to manage the future of Aotearoa New Zealand aviation, in line with strategies in other transport sectors.

How our future shapes up and how we respond to escalating challenges from changing climate conditions depend on our beliefs and understanding of risks, and our commitment to the changes required. Taciano Milfont and co-authors (Milfont et al. 2023) have analysed public attitudes to climate change in Aotearoa New Zealand, using the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study covering nearly 35,000 people. They find that the vast majority of New Zealanders are concerned about climate change, and that over time, people’s beliefs and concerns over climate change grow stronger. Levels of public belief in the reality of climate change tend however to be higher than levels of concern, perhaps delaying the urge for climate action. Moreover, there is a small cohort who do not feel climate change is an issue or a concern for them, and many of those individuals are in positions of power in society. The authors see the tendency for increasing certainty and concern over time leading to greater action on climate change.

But have we as a nation done enough, and what will our legacy be? Is it all hopeless, and will future generations look back on us in scorn? Trevor Daya-Winterbottom explores these questions (Daya-Winterbottom 2023), considering intergenerational approaches to future climate planning and policy, and finds cause for hope. His research suggests that young climate activists, those who have come through the School Strike movement and other pathways, will develop into a powerful cohort to help speed the country’s movement to climate action in time to make meaningful change. The elevation of tikanga Māori in legislative frameworks as well as political discussions about conceptions of diversity that recognise non-human entities with rights in law should also help to ensure better care for the environment upon which all people depend.

Whether or not this adds up to enough of a response in a short enough time frame remains to be seen. The actions taken nationally and globally through the rest of this decade, the 2020s, and into the coming 2030s will determine the future of humanity for centuries to come (Clark et al. 2016). This special issue of the JRSNZ helps illuminate both the challenges and the opportunities before us.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).