Climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation over the Caspian Sea

ABSTRACT

The projected changes in precipitation and air temperature over the Caspian Sea (CS) are studied using 13 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. The Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) and downscaling/bias-correction techniques are applied to reduce the uncertainties and correct the biases in CMIP6 outputs. Future projections indicate a warmer climate (0.4–3°C) over the CS in the 21st century, with precipitation changes up to 2.3% decrease or 20% increase based on scenarios. These changes pose significant environmental challenges that require mitigation and adoption strategies for sustainable development.

KEYWORDS:

• Caspian Sea
• water level
• climate change
• environmental challenges
• sustainability
• mitigation and adoption

Acknowledgment

The authors would like to thank Dr Zahra Ranji, former graduate of K.N. Toosi University of Technology, for her technical support.

Author contributions

S. Mahya Hoseini: Conceived and designed the study; analysed and curated the data; interpreted and visualized the results; curated the data; drafted the manuscript. Mohsen Soltanpour: Conceived and designed the study; interpreted the results; revised the manuscript. Mohammad R. Zolfaghari: Conceived and designed the study; revised the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2024.2313050