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Research Article

Age and sex differences in the annual and seasonal variation of Australia’s suicide rate, 2000–2020

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Received 01 Dec 2023, Accepted 01 Dec 2023, Published online: 11 Dec 2023
 

Abstract

Suicide is a major public health concern both globally and in Australia. But in Australia the extent of substantive annual and seasonality trends since 2000 through the first two decades of the 21st Century, by age and sex, has not been formally reported. The current paper sought to identify annual and within-year (seasonality) trajectories in age-sex standardized suicide rates between 2000 and 2020. The annual and within-year (seasonality) trajectories of suicide were estimated from generalised regression analyses of Australia’s mortality database. No systematic variation in Australia’s suicide rate since 2000 was reported and was consistent between sex and age cohorts. Seasonal variation in rates were identified, with peaks in the new year (January), declines in late Summer/Autumn, stability in Winter, increases in Spring, but with a notable decline in early summer (November–December). These trends were driven men only. Interpretation of current suicide rates need to consider systematic long-term historical context. Despite a historical focus on youth suicide especially, working-aged and very old men have consistently reported higher standardized suicide rates over the first two decades of the 21st Century. Seasonal variation was reported but only reported by men, potentially because across the lifespan, suicide rates for females were a comparatively low incidence event. Particularly after recent successive national and international crises, we emphasise that surveillance and interpretation of current suicide rate requires careful consideration as to the extent any immediate variation may otherwise fall within otherwise normal historical norms.

Declarations

Author contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design, material preparation, and data collection. KS led the analysis and interpretation of the results. The first draft of the manuscript was written by RAB. All authors made substantial contributions to the final version of the manuscript. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript for publication.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

Data was obtained from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, with access funded by an Australian National University, College of Health and Medicine Transform Fellowship grant awarded to RAB.

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