Typical school-to-work transitions of young adults with disabilities in Germany – a cohort study of recipients of vocational rehabilitation services after leaving school in 2008

Abstract

Purpose

In Germany, vocational rehabilitation (VR) for young people with disabilities (YPWD) aims to counteract disadvantages on the training and labour markets. However, the school-to-work transitions (STWT) among YPWD are underexplored. This study investigates to what extent and for whom VR provides an institutional bridge into employment.

Materials and methods

Based on representative administrative data of the German Federal Employment Agency, young people in VR are observed for 6.5 years after completing lower or intermediate secondary education in 2008. Using optimal matching and cluster analysis, six typical STWT trajectories are identified.

Results

Most of the YPWD completed company-external vocational training, some undertook regular in-firm training. These forms of training often lead to regular employment, albeit with a delay for some. Other young people are guided from training in sheltered workshops into sheltered employment. Another group exhibits problematic STWTs in which recurring unemployment and (non-training) programmes fail to lead to training or employment.

Conclusions

VR combined with in-firm or company-external vocational training can facilitate the STWTs of people with disabilities. However, individuals from poor families are less likely to benefit from VR. Similarly, restricted capabilities and problematic STWTs are observed when young people drop out of VR due to poor cooperation.

Implications for rehabilitation

• Vocational training often is a prerequisite for labour market entry; however, if the structural conditions on the local labour market are unfavourable, young people with disabilities do not take up employment.

• Training within sheltered workshops often leads to highly institutionalised trajectories that should be reconsidered to permit greater permeability into the regular labour market.

• As young people with problematic STWT more often come from poor households, they should be targeted to a greater extent in the context of VR counselling.

Keywords:

• Sequence analysis
• primary labour market integration
• active labour market programmes
• vocational rehabilitation
• capability approach

Introduction

Motivation

The school-to-work transition (STWT) is crucial for individual employment prospects and life chances in the long run [1–3]. Therefore, this status passage is of interest in research on social inequalities and disability studies [4]. Young people with health issues and disabilities often face prejudices and need to find a career in which their interests and abilities are well-combined and their disabilities are less relevant [5]. They have been identified as facing particular challenges and are less likely to succeed in their STWTs [6].

Different sources document the poorer chances of people with disabilities in terms of educational attainment and labour market participation. In Germany, people with disabilities whose health issue or disability began early in life generally achieve lower school qualifications compared to people without disabilities and health issues [7]. Twenty-one percent of people with disabilities have no vocational qualification, as compared to 12% of people without disabilities [7, numbers refer to 2013]. People with disabilities are less likely to be in employment (57% in 2017) than their peers without disabilities (81% in 2017) [8] and are more frequently affected by poverty and the receipt of basic income support [9].

Vocational rehabilitation (VR) is an important instrument of the German welfare state. It is intended to help people with disabilities to gain an occupational perspective as well as vocational qualifications and contacts to relevant employers to improve their chances on the primary labour market while providing them with disability-specific support. Different studies from Germany find that about half of young people with disabilities (YPWD) who started VR participated in vocational training and about two-thirds of them are employed afterward [6,10]. However, no study used a causal approach so that an actual effect of VR participation on employment integration has not yet been identified. Nonetheless, the VR approach was recently strengthened further with the ratification of the UN convention on the rights of people with disabilities in Germany in 2009 to achieve the full social inclusion of (young) people with disabilities [11].

Against this background, it is important to ask whether support programmes provided as a part of VR facilitate successful STWTs and labour market integration. Notions of success are often related to the ideal of a typical STWT [e.g., 12–14], but they are mainly based on evidence about young people without disabilities. In Germany, the majority of lower secondary school leavers experience a smooth transition from school to vocational training, mainly in companies, which is known as the first threshold. After two to four years of intensive occupation-specific training, they enter employment, the second threshold [15,16]. Taking this trajectory as a template, differences in the integrative power of STWT can be evaluated by examining whether young people find continuity in vocational training for the expected period of time and subsequently move into stable employment [15]. Regarding support programmes, the question is whether they build bridges into the labour market.

However, there is little systematic information available about the STWTs of YPWD that are strongly organised in the institutional setting of VR. In this setting, young people find occupational orientation and disability-specific support to achieve occupational goals and form their expectations for their STWTs [17]. Due to the different initial conditions and specific needs of YPWD that are to be addressed in the VR setting, the expectations of an ideal-typical STWT do not necessarily correspond to those of young people in general. Although the overriding goal of VR is integration into regular employment, from the perspective of counselling, for example, regular in-company training may not be desirable at first if it overburdens the young person and makes a dropout more likely. Against this background, alternative transition pathways can institutionalise [17–21] and contribute to further segregation within the STWTs of YPWD, as has already been discussed about the German school system [22].

This study aims first to identify STWT patterns among school leavers with disabilities and second to investigate social differences associated with access to the respective different patterns.

To this end, this study pursues a holistic approach in institutional life-course research that goes beyond the investigation of singular events, or transitions, such as entry into vocational training or first employment, by focusing on trajectories as unfolding processes [23]. From this perspective, STWTs are characterised by sequences of activities, also known as states. After completing schooling, young people move through different states in vocational training institutions and labour market states (unemployment, employment, inactivity, etc.). The sequences of states may differ in terms of progression and timing, thereby constituting specific STWT patterns [24].

To our knowledge, this is the first study to apply this holistic perspective and to draw a comprehensive picture of STWTs among a cohort of YPWD who completed their general education in 2008. In this respect, the study is exploratory. Furthermore, this study aims to show who can benefit from disability-specific programmes in terms of stable employment transitions, and who cannot. It draws on information about the vocational training and VR system in Germany and literature on capabilities and the creation of social inequality in STWTs. This allows formulating expectations concerning the types of STWTs that will emerge and how accessible they are for YPWD with certain characteristics.

The analytical strategy of this paper is therefore to identify typical STWT patterns among YPWD by applying sequence analysis methods to German register data. In this approach, the career pattern itself is the outcome [25] and the analysis yields a “thick description” of STWTs [24]. Furthermore, a multinomial logistic regression is used to identify the characteristics of the young people in the respective STWT patterns and to determine who is likely to experience a more or less smooth STWT.

Education and vocational training in Germany

In Germany, children are generally required to attend school from the age of six and attend primary school for four years. The subsequent transition into a secondary school track is crucial as there are strong path dependencies between general school education and vocational training. Lower secondary school, Hauptschule, is the lowest school track and leads to an examination usually after 4 years of general secondary schooling. Realschule is the intermediate secondary school track, which generally lasts 5 years. Students usually leave these two types of school at the age of 15 or 16. The German Gymnasium is the most demanding track and leads to a certificate of aptitude for higher education (Abitur) after 8–9 years of secondary schooling. Hauptschule and Realschule mainly prepare pupils for vocational training in the extensive vocational education and training (VET) sector, which is an important alternative to further general schooling. VET offers highly specific occupational training. Most VET is provided in the form of apprenticeships, where in-firm training is combined with school-based training (the so-called dual system). This form of VET mainly covers occupations in retail, handicrafts, industry, and trade. Training for some occupations, mainly for health, caring and skilled office occupations, also take place in full-time vocational schools [26].

Vocational rehabilitation in Germany

YPWD in Germany often attend special schools, where their chances of gaining school qualifications are low [22]. In 2018, 72% of YPWD left special school without any school qualification, 24% achieved a lower secondary school leaving certificate, and 4% an intermediate or upper secondary school leaving certificate [27]. To improve their labour market prospects, many enter VR after school. VR for YPWD is almost entirely financed by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) in Germany. In 2008 about 44 000 young people started VR [28]. However, the number of entries to VR has been decreasing since 2010 [29], presumably due to the better labour market situation in general and to skill shortages in some sectors [30]. Of those undergoing VR, over 50% have a learning disability, about 20% have psychological health issues and about 15% have a mental disability [29]. Many have already been diagnosed while at school [29] so that their VR can start early. However, disabilities may also emerge during later periods of unemployment, job search, and the early career phase. This applies in particular to people with psychological health issues [6,29].

There are several ways for YPWD to enter VR. The standard way for VR counsellors to make contact with potential VR participants is through the schools. To identify those eligible for and interested in VR, career advisors and specific VR counsellors from the local employment offices visit special and regular schools and inform those with disabilities and special support needs about their possibilities in the VR context. Based on medical and psychological reports, the VR counsellor clarifies whether the young person concerned is eligible for VR. This often happens while young people are still at school. After the situation has been clarified, the young person and the VR counsellor draw up a VR plan. The VR phase, including an occupational orientation phase and a potential vocational training phase, usually takes place after the young person has left school [6].

To identify the most appropriate programme and learning environment (i.e., in-firm vocational training or company-external training; with or without strong support structures from specialised service providers; with or without accommodation opportunities), the rehabilitation counsellors at the local employment offices are expected to take into consideration both their client’s interests and abilities as well as the current labour market situation (§ 49 (4) Book IX of the German Social Code).

The German FEA offers diverse (pre-)vocational training programmes for young people with difficulties transitioning to employment. Due to their health limitations and related problems in accessing the regular training and labour markets, YPWD is eligible for disability-specific active labour market programmes as well as disability-specific benefits available in the context of VR and may take part in VR run by specialised service providers.

First, pre-vocational training programmes aim to impart basic skills and develop the individual career aspirations of school leavers who are not yet ready for vocational training. The participants can identify their career aspirations during assessment phases in which they explore different tasks. Particularly for young people with severe psychological or other complex health issues, there are disability-specific pre-vocational training programmes. YPWD can receive additional psychological and/or medical support from specialised service providers during their occupational orientation phase. Second, integration into regular in-firm vocational training is promoted using training-wage subsidies and/or technical assistance for specific (physical or sensory) disabilities. In this context, specialised service providers also support companies and the YPWD with different aspects of vocational training. This comprehensive support ranges from carrying out the entire theoretical part of the vocational training to occasional support in terms of additional coaching and lessons or psychological and medical support. Third, there are alternatives to regular in-firm vocational training, for example, vocational training in company-external training facilities or sheltered workshops. Training costs and accommodation during training are paid in full by the FEA. Participants in sheltered workshops do not gain formal vocational qualifications [10] and have few opportunities in the regular labour market, but generally continue to work in sheltered workshops [31]. Finally, firms can receive wage subsidies for employing YPWD [6,32]. Disability-specific programmes are intended to improve employability and labour market participation by focusing on individual strengths [33].

Capability approach in the German VR setting

In this study, the STWTs of YPWD are analysed from a life-course perspective. It is one paradigm of life-course research to examine the development of individual life courses as the outcome of individual characteristics in their given institutional and structural conditions [34]. Applying a holistic approach, it is examined how STWT develops across several years, from the individual leaving school until they enter employment. Social differences result in heterogeneous STWTs, with young people moving through different states at different stages after leaving school and remaining in the respective states for different durations. The organisation of (pre-)vocational training and labour market programmes together with selection procedures on the (vocational training) market set the structural framework. Within this framework, school leavers with disabilities have different resources at their disposal and face constraints that influence their career decisions. On the one hand, their opportunities are limited compared to their peers without disabilities, as they are confronted with obstacles to regular vocational training; on the other hand, their chances can be improved by VR. The role of individual characteristics that are important for the selection into different active labour market programmes is formative for differences in STWTs within the group of YPWD.

The capability approach (CA) developed by Amartya Sen [35] and Martha Nussbaum [36] makes it possible to discuss disability as social inequality in the ability to achieve good chances in life, and stable gainful employment is one crucial precondition for this. From the CA perspective, VR should assist young people in their labour market participation, but there are social differences in terms of how the young make use of VR as an opportunity that makes a positive impact on labour market success.

The theory mainly distinguishes capabilities, functionings and conversion factors. Capabilities or opportunities are considered to be chances to achieve abilities or functionings. Functionings are defined as achieved abilities (doings) or personal characteristics (beings). Conversion factors help people to take advantage of opportunities to achieve abilities.

Based on the research question of this study, VR is a conversion factor. Thus, VR targets those who are limited in their capabilities to access regular schooling, vocational training, and employment on the regular labour market due to their initial functionings. This particularly refers to health limitations and stability, as well as school qualifications and poor societal background, which are well-known indicators of social inequality in the STWT [e.g., 16,37]. Thus, VR provides the infrastructure to access different disability-specific labour market programmes. These programmes are intended to expand the person’s set of capabilities and make their labour market situation less disabling [38]. They can be used as opportunities or capabilities to gain additional functionings, such as coping skills, employability, vocational training, vocational qualification, and, in fact, labour market participation. However, the individuals’ initial functionings affect the extent to which they can benefit from specific VR programmes and to which vocational qualifications gained during VR can facilitate their access to the regular labour market despite other disadvantages, e.g., the labour market environment.

Expectations regarding STWTs

It is expected to find various STWT patterns among YPWD in Germany. STWTs via regular in-firm training leading to regular employment is expected, which correspond to the general ideal-type of people without disabilities. The existence of this transition type would indicate that YPWD has access to it. Due to the specific needs of many YPWD, there are further patterns that are structured by the specific programmes, such as STWTs via company-external vocational training before entering the labour market, as well as patterns involving sheltered workshops. Company-external vocational training is likely to be strongly linked with pre-vocational training schemes. Although sheltered workshops have the objective of qualifying people for the regular labour market, it is expected YPWD who have been trained in sheltered workshops take their first steps on the labour market in sheltered employment. Provision of VR may be challenging in some cases as it requires comprehensive recognition of (social) support needs and good cooperation between the counsellor and the young person. Thus, it is expected that some YPWD are unable to benefit from VR opportunities, resulting in them experiencing spells of unemployment alternating with short periods of employment or vocational training.

Dimensions of social inequality

About the question of social differences, the present study takes into account differences in the STWTs by type of disability and the timing of VR. As mentioned above, many YPWD in Germany, in particular those with learning disabilities, are diagnosed during schooling and attend special schools. Hence, it is expected that smooth transitions into vocational training are more accessible for young people with learning disabilities. Furthermore, there is an increasing number of young people with psychological health issues. They enter VR later after school. In the transition phase, psychological issues that were not previously apparent often seem to manifest themselves. Young people with psychological disabilities, therefore, tend to be older and better educated on average than young people with other disabilities [6]. It can be anticipated, however, that the disadvantages experienced by this group of YPWD will continue beyond their general schooling, resulting in young people with psychological disabilities being ceteris paribus, other characteristics being equal, more likely to exhibit problematic unemployment career patterns and to enter VR later after school.

School qualifications themselves are important in the transition to vocational training because employers, who are the gatekeepers to apprenticeship positions [39], use them as signals of a young person’s productivity or trainability [40,41]. Young people who have completed intermediate secondary school have an advantage over those from lower secondary schools. It is therefore expected that higher school qualifications increase the likelihood of YPWD having STWTs in which they complete regular in-firm training and enter stable employment. In addition, school qualifications are taken into account by career advisors when providing advice to young people and selecting programme participants [41]. In the interaction with caseworkers as well as in the school context, school leavers with lower qualifications are likely to have negative experiences and to encounter stigmatisation that may also lead to their withdrawal from the training market [42,43]. It is expected that YPWD with low school qualifications is more likely to transition to employment via company-external vocational training (in combination with pre-vocational training) or sheltered workshops and to experience unstable unemployment careers.

The family background is also important, as familial poverty restricts individual development skills, orientations, and ambitions that are important in the STWT [44,45]. Furthermore, financial stress also limits parents’ abilities to support their children with their education [46]. This is an even more pressing issue in the context of YPWD. Individuals from poor families are more likely to have health issues than their peers not affected by poverty [47]. In addition, children educated at special schools for young people with learning disabilities are more likely to come from low-income families [48]. The combination of health issues together with poor or non-existent school qualifications and poverty may increase the likelihood of a problematic STWT [49,50]. It is therefore expected that familial poverty is a singular differentiating factor for access to the different STWT patterns. Young people from families with low financial resources are less likely to be found in STWT patterns involving regular in-firm training.

Materials and methods

Data and sample

The empirical analysis made use of the German Reha-Process Data Panel (RehaPro), which is based on administrative data from the FEA [6]. The representative data contains (disability-specific) information on all individuals who applied for VR financed by the FEA, including precise daily information on the VR process, participation in active labour market programmes, periods of unemployment, regular and subsidised employment, and vocational training. The database was created in a data generation project, in which the data of the observation period from 06/2006 to 04/2016 were prepared for scientific research for the first time.

The sample for the analysis consisted of the 2008 cohort of school leavers who had completed lower or intermediate secondary education and had gone on to apply for VR (N = 15 723). The study population was limited to those who had received career guidance (outside of VR), because this is the only group for which there is information about the school leaving date. One cannot observe the entire 2008 school-leaver cohort as not all YPWD in VR received career guidance, so the information about the school leaving date is not available in the register. Because key information about the cohort of school leavers is missing in the official statistical data, it cannot exactly be said how many YPWD are lost in the sample. It is known, however, that between 2006 and 2016 on average 30% of those who started VR in each year had missing values for the variable “end of schooling” due to not having received general career guidance outside of VR. Still, the excluded group can be regarded as missing at random. On the one hand, this may concern young people not seeking guidance because they already have a clear career path in mind; on the other hand, they may be young people who find their way directly to the VR team of the FEA (e.g., via special schools or clinics) and receive career guidance in this context [6,51]. Thus, this group of young people is quite likely to differ in terms of education, disability, and social background.

The analysis concentrates on the cohort of 2008, for whom there is a sufficiently long observation period to examine STWTs comprehensively, including delayed transitions at the two thresholds. This is particularly necessary for the group of YPWD as their transitions may be lengthened due to recognition and acceptance processes and sickness periods. However, the 2008 cohort left school during the global great recession. This recession affected Germany only briefly and to a relatively small extent to the labour market for young people. Although training conditions have improved steadily since 2009, there are still young people who are unable to access in-company training [26].

The observation period covers 78 months, from July 2008 to December 2014. For the cohort study, the daily status information was collapsed to monthly data.

Statistical analysis and measures

Sequence analysis [52] was used to identify typical STWT patterns among YPWD. Sequence analysis is an exploratory method to identify patterns in sequences of states in longitudinal data [52], and is, therefore, an established method in careers research [53]. It has previously been applied in rehabilitation sciences, for example, to study the return to work of workers with work-related physical disorders [54], and has provided insights into the adequacy of policy interventions [55].

This study aims to complement the CA: the STWT patterns reveal the way YPWD manoeuvre through their STWTs. In the given institutional VR setting, the patterns show the extent to which YPWD achieve functionings for working life and how this is related to their initial functionings as they are unequally allocated to different transition pathways.

The sequence analysis is based on statistical definitions of similarity in the individual month-by-month sequences about their order and timing in the STWT. Each month is assigned to one of eleven distinct employment states:

1. unemployment (with or without benefit receipt),

2. employment covered by social security (contributed employment),

3. sheltered employment (also includes marginal part-time employment),

4. subsidised in-firm training (the employer receives training subsidies from the FEA),

5. vocational training in a sheltered workshop,

6. company-external vocational training (e.g., at a vocational training centre),

7. unsubsidised in-firm training (the employer receives no training subsidies),

8. pre-vocational programmes (vocational preparation programmes to help the participant to find a career perspective and to gain a lower secondary school qualification),

9. job creation programmes (“1-euro jobs”)

10. other programmes,

11. data gap, i.e., periods of economic inactivity, self-employment, child-rearing or shorter sickness periods outside employment and benefit receipt, periods of further education, or full-time school-based vocational training are not recorded in the database. These activities are not part of the FEA’s central responsibilities.

The optimal matching (OM) procedure was applied to compare the individual sequences of states in the STWTs. For this, the employment status for each person in each of the 78 months after completing general schooling was identified. OM analysis investigates whether there are comparable structures and differences within individual STWTs that can be aggregated to typical patterns. This is done by comparing each sequence in a sample with every other sequence and calculating dissimilarity measures [56] between the sequences. It counts the number of transformations required to transfer one sequence into another using deletion, insertion, or substitution of the states of a sequence. Costs are assigned to each of these transformations. In this study, the costs of insertion and deletion (“indel costs”) were each set at 1, and substitution costs were set at 2 so that substitutions are as expensive as one insertion and one deletion and are interchangeable in their use [53]. The OM procedure calculates the distance between any two sequences as the minimum possible transformation costs. Thus, the lower the costs, the more similar the sequences. A matrix of distances for all sequence combinations was generated.

To identify typical STWT patterns, a hierarchical cluster algorithm (Ward’s method [57]) was applied to the distance matrix. This groups the STWT sequences according to their similarity; sequences within a particular group are close to one another and far from other sequences. The optimal number of clusters was determined by statistical indicators (values of ASW, HG, PBC, HC) [58] and the interpretability of content. Finally, a six-cluster solution was presented.

Sequence visualisations were used to answer the explorative research question regarding the typical STWT patterns of YPWD in Germany. Then, a multinomial logistic regression was used to examine whether individual and regional vocational training market characteristics predicted the likelihood of an individual belonging to one of the six clusters after leaving school. To permit the comparability of findings across the STWT clusters, average marginal effects (AME) were estimated. The AME is to be interpreted as the difference between the likelihood of belonging to a specific STWT pattern and the likelihood of any other pattern.

In applying a multinomial logistic regression model, it is assumed that the STWT patterns have no clear order. Although a smooth STWT via in-company vocational training could generally be considered the ideal type in Germany, it is not easy to determine what is better or less favourable for the population under consideration in this study. YPWD may benefit more from training within a supportive environment given their support needs during vocational training periods. Another important issue is the assumption of the independence of irrelevant alternatives in multinomial logistic regression models. As a robustness test, a multinomial probit model was calculated where this assumption was relaxed. The results did not change.

The following independent variables (or functionings) were used: school qualification (as of July 2008), acceptance to VR in 2008 (or later), and type of (main) disability reported at the time of acceptance into the programme. Receipt of basic income support in July 2008 was an indicator of a poor household. Control variables were gender, age 17 or older (as of July 2008), foreign (non-German) nationality as well as a classification of the regional vocational training market conditions [59]. In the cluster description, the “reason for ending VR” was also included as an indicator of further individual health problems as well as problems in the VR process and interaction with VR counsellors. This information could not be used for the regression, as the indicator is measured at the end of VR, not at the beginning, which is the case with all the other variables. Thus, the STWT and VR may be interrelated processes, i.e., problems in the STWT may influence the course of VR and vice versa.

The data were prepared using STATA 14.v2, the sequence analysis and clustering were conducted using RStudio and both the descriptive analysis and the regression model were measured using STATA 14.v2.

Results

Sample characterisation

The sample comprised YPWD in VR who had left school in 2008, and consisted of 15 723 individuals. Table 1 displays their descriptive characteristics in total as well as for each cluster. There were 62% males and 38% females in the sample. Sixty percent were 17 years of age or older. 88% had German nationality, 12% were non-German. Almost half of the population (49%) had a lower secondary school qualification, 41% had no (general) school qualification; only 10% held an intermediate secondary school qualification. Sixty-four percent began VR in the year in which they left school (2008). Sixty-five percent of the young people had a learning disability and 19% a psychological or mental disability. About one-third of the population were members of households in receipt of basic income support.

Table 1. Characterisation of the six STWT clusters and the total sample (descriptive analysis, as %).

	Cluster 1: company-external – successful (n = 3007; 19%)	Cluster 2: company-external – delayed/problematic (n = 4717; 30%)	Cluster 3: in-firm training (n = 2404; 15%)	Cluster 4: unemployment/ programme career (n = 1740; 11%)	Cluster 5: sheltered workshops (n = 1143; 7%)	Cluster 6: gaps (n = 2712; 17%)	Total sample (n = 15 723)
Disability
Psychological/mental disability	5	14	11	18	61	31	19
Learning disability	79	70	63	71	28	54	65
Other disabilities	15	16	26	11	11	16	16
School qualification
No (general) school qualification	36	34	31	48	83	43	41
Lower secondary school qualification	57	57	52	45	14	44	49
Intermediate secondary school qualification	6	9	16	7	2	13	10
Regional structure of vocational training market
District in eastern Germany, low share of school leavers  and high unemployment	14	19	9	17	15	12	15
Dynamic urban districts in western Germany and surrounding areas	7	9	8	11	12	11	9
Districts in western Germany, large companies	22	26	23	31	30	30	26
Districts in western Germany, no large companies, low unemployment	46	37	48	30	35	37	39
No information	10	10	12	11	9	11	10
Reasons for ending VR
Rehabilitation still ongoing	2	12	4	7	1	10	7
Employment	79	28	44	7	2	6	32
Sickness/medical rehabilitation	1	5	2	7	2	11	5
Rejection/not taking-up rehabilitation	3	5	12	8	1	10	6
A lack of cooperation or poor labour market integration prospects	10	31	23	54	9	38	28
Other reasons	5	19	15	18	85	25	21
Receipt of basic income support
No	78	65	76	33	76	62	66
Yes	22	35	24	67	22	36	34
No information	0	0	0	1	1	2	1
Acceptance into VR
In 2008	80	60	63	55	82	50	64
After 2008	20	40	37	45	18	50	36
Sex
Female	28	42	29	37	40	51	38
Male	72	58	71	63	60	49	62
Nationality
German	88	90	86	85	91	85	88
Non-German	12	10	14	15	9	15	12
Age
Aged under 17	40	40	46	40	18	43	40
Aged 17 or older	60	60	54	60	82	57	60

Source: RehaPro, own calculation.

Description of the trajectories observed in the six STWT clusters

Six STWT clusters were identified within the whole sample. To describe them, three plots for each cluster are provided. The sequence index plot displays each sequence of states for each of the 78 months (Figure 1, first plot) so that the importance of states and timing within individual STWT are visible. The next two plots switch to an aggregated level of observation: the status proportion plot (Figure 1, second plot) shows the share of YPWD that exhibited the respective state during the 78 months after leaving school in 2008. Finally, the modal plot (Figure 1, third plot) describes the sequence that was observed most often for the respective cluster.

Figure 1. Typical STWTs for young people with disabilities leaving school in 2008 and subsequently participating in VR. Source: RehaPro, own illustration and calculation, 78-month observation period starting in July 2008 and ending in December 2014; Number of observations = 15 723.

The first cluster accounted for 19% of the sample. The young people in this cluster underwent company-external vocational training before entering employment. About 30% attended pre-vocational programmes after leaving school, ∼40% started vocational training straight after school. At the end of the observation period, about 90% of the young people in this cluster were in employment. This cluster showed successful STWTs via company-external vocational training (cluster 1: company-external training – successful).

The second cluster was the largest one (30%). Company-external vocational training was also the dominant state here, but, compared to the first cluster, a smaller share of the school leavers started company-external vocational training in the first year after leaving school. About one-third attended pre-vocational programmes and another third was in unregistered states (data gap). At the end of the observation period, about 20% were employed and about 30% were unemployed. This cluster was less successful in terms of employment than the first one; the large proportion of data gaps in the first year after leaving school indicated a delayed VR transition (cluster 2: company-external – delayed/problematic). This pattern challenges the formulated expectations since the combination of pre-vocational training and company-external training did not lead straight to employment integration for a relatively substantial share of YPWD.

The young people in the third cluster (15%) completed in-firm vocational training, mainly in a regular unsubsidised form, before taking up employment. A smaller share of young people participated in pre-vocational training compared to the first two clusters. In the last year of observation about 70% were employed (cluster 3: in-firm training). This cluster represents the STWT pattern that is regarded as the ideal type among young people in Germany in general and is targeted by social policies. However, this group is significantly smaller than that of young people undergoing company-external training.

Most of the young people in the fourth cluster participated in pre-vocational training after leaving school. Afterward, a relatively large share was unemployed, participated in different active labour market programmes, or exhibited unregistered states (data gaps). Only a small share was employed after VR. The sequence index plot clearly illustrates (Figure 1, plot 1) that the YPWD in this cluster repeatedly moved between states without ever reaching stable vocational training or employment (cluster 4: unemployment/programme career).

The young people in the fifth cluster (7%) took up vocational training in the context of a sheltered workshop that led directly to sheltered employment (cluster 5: sheltered workshop).

The sixth cluster (17%) comprised young people for whom the administrative data did not report any status over relevant periods of time. One cannot observe whether the young people mastered the first and second threshold of the STWT, as shares of vocational training, as well as both employment and unemployment, were low throughout the observation period (cluster 6: gaps).

Characterisation of young people belonging to the six STWT clusters

A multinomial logistic regression model was used to predict differences in the likelihood of an individual belonging to one of the six clusters after leaving school (Table 2). Where it adds to the discussion, the descriptive characterisation of the clusters displayed in Table 1 is referred to.

Table 2. Characterisation of the six STWT clusters (multinomial logistic regression, AME, sig., standard error).

	Cluster 1: company-external – successful			Cluster 2: company-external – delayed/problematic			Cluster 3: in-firm training			Cluster 4: unemployment/ programme career			Cluster 5: sheltered workshops			Cluster 6: gaps
Disability
Reference: psychological/mental disability
Learning disability	0.16***		0.01	0.10***		0.01	0.07***		0.01	0.01		0.01	−0.21***		0.01	−0.13***		0.01
Other disabilities	0.09***		0.01	0.04***		0.01	0.13***		0.01	−0.02*		0.01	−0.16***		0.01	−0.08***		0.01
School qualification
Reference: no (general) school qual.
Lower secondary school qual.	0.07***		0.01	0.09***		0.01	0.04***		0.01	−0.03***		0.01	−0.11***		0.01	−0.06***		0.01
Intermediate secondary school qual.	0.05***		0.01	0.04*		0.02	0.15***		0.01	−0.05***		0.01	−0.13***		0.01	−0.06***		0.01
Regional vocational training market conditions
Reference: district in eastern Germany, low share of school leavers and high unemployment
Dynamic urban districts in western Germany and districts in surrounding areas	−0.04***		0.01	−0.10***		0.02	0.05***		0.01	0.01		0.01	0.02*		0.01	0.06***		0.01
Districts in western Germany, large companies	−0.03*		0.01	−0.07***		0.01	0.03***		0.01	0.01		0.01	0.00		0.01	0.05***		0.01
Districts in western Germany, no large companies. low unemployment	0.03**		0.01	−0.10***		0.01	0.08***		0.01	−0.03***		0.01	0.00		0.01	0.02*		0.01
Household in receipt of basic income support	−0.06***		0.01	0		0.01	−0.03***		0.01	0.09***		0.01	−0.02***		0	0.01		0.01
Acceptance into VR after 2008	−0.13***		0.01	0.04***		0.01	−0.01		0.01	0.06***		0.01	−0.04***		0	0.09***		0.01
Male	0.07***		0.01	−0.04***		0.01	0.06***		0.01	0.01		0.01	−0.01		0	−0.09***		0.01
German nationality	0.01		0.01	−0.03***		0.01	0.07***		0.01	−0.02**		0.01	0.01*		0.01	−0.05***		0.01
Aged 17 or above	0.01		0.01	0		0.01	−0.03***		0.01	0		0.01	0.04***		0	−0.02**		0.01
N	14 078

Source: RehaPro, own calculations.

*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001, 95 confidence interval.

Our results showed that young people with learning disabilities who were accepted into VR early were relatively more likely to experience a successful STWT via company-external vocational training (cluster 1). These two factors were the strongest predictors. Young people with learning disabilities were 16 percentage points (PP) more likely to follow this pathway after completing general schooling compared to young people with psychological disabilities. This indicates the expected differences according to disability type given otherwise equal timing of VR and characteristics, such as school qualifications. Access to VR after 2008 reduced the likelihood by 13 PP. In addition, this STWT was more likely for young men and for school leavers with a secondary school qualification than was the case for those with no qualifications.

A delayed/problematic STWT via company-external vocational training (cluster 2) was also more likely among young people with a learning disability and those with a lower secondary school qualification. In contrast to cluster 1, the regional market conditions were particularly important here. This STWT was more common among young people living in eastern Germany, in regions characterised by a relatively small share of school leavers and high unemployment. Young people in regions with more favourable conditions were between 7 and 10 PP less likely to be in this cluster.

Access to an STWT via in-firm vocational training (cluster 3) differed significantly depending on the type of school leaving certificate. Young people with an intermediate secondary school qualification were 15 PP more likely to transition this way compared to young people with no general school qualification. An STWT via in-firm vocational training was also more likely for men, for those with German nationality, and young people with other (mainly physical) disabilities than for those with psychological disabilities. Furthermore, STWTs via in-firm training were more likely for young people living in districts in western Germany with relatively low unemployment and few large companies.

The likelihood of experiencing recurrent unemployment or a programme career (cluster 4) was higher for individuals with no school qualifications and those starting VR after 2008. Furthermore, belonging to a poor household increased the likelihood by 9 PP. It should be mentioned that the type of disability and the school-leaving qualifications were less important for this problematic STWT than belonging to a household in receipt of welfare benefits. The descriptive evidence in Table 1 also shows that about half of the young people in this cluster discontinued VR during the observation period due to a lack of cooperation with their VR counsellors.

A transition to and retention in a sheltered workshop (cluster 5) was above all a matter of disability type and school qualifications. Young people with mental or psychological disabilities were 21 PP more likely to be in this cluster than those with learning disabilities. Leaving school with no qualifications increased the likelihood by 11 PP compared to those with intermediate secondary school qualifications. A further predictor was leaving school at a relatively higher age, which is an indicator of early difficulties in education.

The likelihood of belonging to the sixth cluster, gaps, was also higher for young people with a psychological or mental disability and without school qualifications. However, in contrast to the other clusters, this one contained more women, more non-Germans, and more individuals starting VR after 2008. A large share of young people in this cluster discontinued VR due to medical rehabilitation or sickness (11%, see Table 1), while others discontinued VR due to insufficient cooperation with the VR counsellors or a lack of labour market integration prospects (38%).

Discussion

This is the first study to analyse the STWTs of school leavers with disabilities using Germany as an example. About 70% of the observed young people who left school with at best an intermediate secondary school qualification participated in vocational training. The results thus show that vocational training is formative in this life stage for YPWD, as has been determined previously for those without disabilities [e.g., 12,13,15]. However, YPWD still faces a stronger variability in the available programmes in VR, such as regular in-firm training, company-external training, or sheltered workshops. The results of this study show that different programmes are associated with differences in the potential to achieve sustainable employment integration for young people [12]. Therefore, VR programmes provide different opportunities and capabilities for individuals with disabilities. A somewhat alarming finding, however, is that as many as 11% of the observed school leavers with disabilities experienced highly problematic unemployment and programme careers (cluster 4). These YPWD failed to take up either stable vocational training or employment during the six years after leaving school. These unstable careers that develop already in the first years after leaving general schooling challenge the aims of VR.

Company-external vocational training plays a major role in the STWTs of YPWD. In contrast, in-firm vocational training, which is the main form of vocational training for young people without disabilities in Germany [26], was found relatively seldom in the group of YPWD. Thus, an STWT via company-external vocational training can be regarded as an institutionalised standard for YPWD. Contrary to the expectations derived from the literature, this STWT pattern was not likely to be more accessible to young people without qualifications. YPWD with lower secondary school certificates is the main group in company-external training programs. However, it does not guarantee a successful labour market transition, as a large share of the young people observed were unemployed following company-external vocational training. Therefore, the so-called second threshold in the STWT, the transition to employment, is even more critical for YPWD than the first threshold. In-firm training is still considered advantageous, as trainees are often retained as regular employees by the training company on completion of training. Although trainees in company-external vocational training programmes often pass short periods of work experience in companies (especially at the end of the vocational training phase), these programmes cannot achieve the same integrative effect as in-firm vocational training. In this respect, findings indicate a relative advantage of young men in the group of YPWD who are more likely to be in in-company training – or the pattern of successful company-external training. The findings are closely related to the prevailing gender-typical occupational choice in different VET segments. In general, young men in Germany find many attractive occupations in in-firm vocational training, while training for female-typical social and health occupations takes place in the school-based vocational system [60]. Thus, the strong promotion of vocational training in firms or company-external programmes is more conducive to young men with disabilities.

Differences are observable according to young people’s functionings. YPWD are allocated to different transition patterns depending on their school qualification, their type of disability as well as their social background. Of these factors, school qualifications is found to be an important criterion. In particular, an intermediate secondary school qualification facilitates access to in-firm vocational training, but only a small share of YPWD reach this qualification level. In addition, regional labour market conditions partly determine whether young people’s transitions from company-external training into employment are successful (cluster 1) or problematic (cluster 2) and whether YPWD participates in in-firm training (cluster 3).

In addition, the type of disability represents a functioning that seems to determine certain pathways to VR programmes, such as vocational training in sheltered workshops. These programmes lead to fewer capabilities for a transition to the regular labour market. Particularly the STWTs of young people with mental and psychological disabilities are strongly institutionalised (cluster 5). This selection occurs at an early stage of schooling. For this particularly disadvantaged subgroup, sheltered workshops constitute an alternative to regular vocational training. However, this STWT describes an institutional setting with path dependencies in a segmented secondary labour market. Thus, this pattern conflicts with the aim of sheltered employment, which is to prepare the participants for the regular labour market [61,62].

Furthermore, the young people in the highly problematic unemployment and programme career cluster (cluster 4) were mainly YPWD from poor families whose VR started after 2008. The data also showed non-cooperation to be the major reason for VR drop-out, unlike other clusters, which points to problematic interactions with VR counsellors. The interpretation of the findings is that the interaction between disability and poverty in the family is constraint for mastering the challenges [63] involved in the STWT, thereby increasing the associated complexities [64]. It is important for families to have financial resources at their disposal and for parents to have possibilities to support their children. Young people from poor backgrounds are less likely to possess knowledge about procedures and competencies that would enable them to take advantage of active labour market programmes, comply with behavioural requirements, and to negotiate individual preferences. Studies have revealed social differences in institutional counselling procedures [65,66], which can be interpreted as one facet of unequal capabilities in the VR process.

Rehabilitation counsellors may also interpret an unstable health status (or motivation) as non-cooperation. The study by Van Hal et al. [67] focuses on the return to work in the Netherlands and the role of public policies in this context. The authors describe an organisational logic of counselling that interprets health stability as an indicator of motivation, willpower, and employability. This logic – which can also be found in the German context – is particularly problematic for rehabilitants whose health is not stable (e.g., with both chronic and psychological health issues). This might well also apply to the population studied, which includes a large number of young people with psychological disabilities. Having an unstable health condition might thus prevent some rehabilitants from benefiting from the available options in VR due to their being considered not motivated or not stable enough.

This might also apply to the group of YPWD in the gap cluster (cluster 6). Here, long episodes of inactivity lead neither to vocational training nor to (un-)employment. The members of this group are more likely to drop out of VR for medical reasons. Thus, periods of sickness and medical treatment after leaving school play a role and may explain gaps in the administrative data. It also points to health instability and the problems with organisational logic mentioned above. This implication is supported by relatively large shares of non-cooperation with counsellors in this cluster – a similar factor to that found in the unemployment/programme career cluster (cluster 4).

Strengths and limitations

The use of administrative data allowed us to observe the employment trajectories of a large sample of school leavers with disabilities over a considerable period. The study was able to detect and quantify typical transition patterns in this under-researched group of young people facing particularly difficult challenges in their STWTs due to health problems. Furthermore, sociodemographic, regional and rehabilitation-specific information characterised the YPWD in the different transition patterns.

However, administrative data also have limitations. For instance, the data are only available for a limited observation period, so the analysis refers only to one cohort of school leavers. Analyses for later cohorts will be possible with data that are soon to be updated so that the question as to how stable the patterns are, for instance in times of changing labour market conditions, can soon be addressed. Furthermore, this study cannot draw a complete picture of all school leavers with disabilities in 2008 because the year the individual left school is not available for those who did not receive general career guidance from the FEA. This may concern young people not seeking guidance because they already had a clear career path in mind, or they may be young people who found their way directly to the VR team of the FEA (e.g., via special schools or clinics) and received career guidance in this context. However, this group is likely to differ in terms of education, disability, and social background and are thus missing at random. This may mean, however, that both the quantitative significance of regular STWTs and problematic careers within the cohort are underestimated in this study. Furthermore, health information and occupational capabilities are scarce due to data disclosure restrictions and institution-specific measurement [68], e.g., multiple disabilities cannot be identified. Other inequality-relevant factors are thus also underexposed, such as ethnic inequalities, since the data only contain information on nationality. Finally, periods of inactivity in the STWTs cannot be observed in detail and there is no information on the hours worked by employed persons, so the quality of the employment is underreported. To overcome the shortfalls of administrative data, linkage with survey data could help here in future research.

Implications for research and practice

Nonetheless, the study yields several implications for VR practice. First, vocational training is a prerequisite for labour market entry and serves as a conversion factor for many YPWD. However, if the structural conditions on the local labour market are unfavourable, YPWD does not transition to employment. Second, selection into training within sheltered workshops takes place at an early stage and leads to highly institutionalised trajectories. Transitions into employment on the regular labour market are seldom. This automatism is mainly based on functionings, such as age, the type of disability, and school qualification. These automatic pathways should be reconsidered to permit greater permeability into the regular labour market. General arrangements for this were laid down in the German Federal Participation Act in 2018 [69]. Finally, young people from poor households should be targeted to a greater extent in the context of VR counselling. These actions could be interpreted as additional or group-specific conversion factors in the language of the CA. Although this study cannot give insights into the detailed mechanisms in this subgroup, receipt of basic income support in the (parental) household leads to a risk of problematic employment biographies being reproduced.

Although this study answers crucial questions concerning the STWTs of YPWD, as well as the determinants of more successful or problematic transitions and the role played by VR in this context, it also raises questions for future research. The database used provides opportunities to address various further research questions, for example on the causal effect of support programmes for subsequent employment outcomes, or on the characteristics of social inequality that remain important for individual transitions. Furthermore, the problematic situation of young people from poor households should be addressed to explore the specific details of non-cooperation in VR, e.g., by using qualitative methods to formulate implications for VR practice explicitly. It would be possible, for example, to examine whether these young people have undiagnosed psychological problems that are not recognised by VR counsellors or whether mental health problems are identified by counsellors and are seen as non-cooperation. If the latter is the case, it is very difficult to allocate those young people to the programmes they might need to complete VR. Furthermore, the STWT patterns of YPWD should be compared with those of later cohorts to obtain deeper insights into the role of institutional settings.

Concluding remarks

This study shows that VR is an instrument to build bridges in the STWT. The CA helps to understand why VR can be an opportunity for a large part of the population with disabilities. Furthermore, the CA helps to explain why VR serves as a conversion factor for some but not all YPWD. This is due to differences in their functionings, which hinder their access to capabilities in the context of VR. This particularly concerns people from poor households, people with unstable health, and people living in areas with difficult vocational training markets. However, it also concerns young people with certain (presumably) severe (mental and psychological) disabilities and very low education levels. This study shows that these young people either experience automatic pathways into sheltered workshops or none at all. All of these personal characteristics prevent them from benefiting from VR. Therefore, public policy needs to take specific action to target this group of young people.

Ethical approval

All procedures performed in this study were under the code of ethics of the German Sociological Association and with the 1964 Helsinki Declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. Since administrative data refer to social security data, formal individual consent is not required.

Disclosure statement

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are particularly protected social data. According to §75 Book X of the German Social Code, the data are available on request from The Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs via the Institute for Employment Research (department DIM). Data can only be analysed at the Institute for Employment Research or one of its locations outside Germany.

Additional information

Funding

This study was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. The funder had no involvement in the study whatsoever.