Electoral Competition and Policy-Making Under the Fourth Merkel Government. Driven by ‘Fridays for Future’ and the Pandemic?

ABSTRACT

Did electoral competition shape the policies of the fourth Merkel government? We answer this question in five steps. First, we theoretically discuss under which conditions electoral competition affects public policies. Only in publicly salient issue areas in which opposition parties advocate credible alternatives and only if policy satisfaction influences voting intention will the government modify its policies. Next, we identify the two most salient issue areas, climate change and the Corona pandemic. Third, opposition parties offered credible alternatives, the Greens (and the Left) in climate policy and the FDP (and the AfD) regarding Corona management. Fourth, governing parties could not be certain to participate in the next government. Furthermore, voting intention for the Christian democrats as leading party of the government was related to policy success, while the Greens (and the Left) and the FDP (and the AfD) could benefit from dissatisfaction with climate change policy and Corona management, respectively. Finally, only regarding climate change did the government respond to electoral pressure by an increase in press releases, while communication about Corona was driven by voters’ problem perception. These findings are corroborated by brief case studies of policy-making processes.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

SUPPLEMENTAL DATA AND RESEARCH MATERIALS

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed on the Taylor & Francis website, doi:10.1080/09644008.2023.2198213.

Notes

1 In the original CHES data, lower scores indicate a higher advocacy of environmental protection. We recoded the variable by subtracting the original value from 10. Hence, in the following, higher scores reflect stronger support for environmental protection.

2 For 2014, no data for environmental salience are available.

3 The support of the University of Heidelberg's Center for Advanced Studies (Marsilius-Kolleg) is gratefully acknowledged.

4 Unfortunately, only the second survey also included a question on the economic situation, more specifically, how the pandemic had changed respondents’ economic situation. If included in our main model, we would lose more than half of our observations. Hence, we only ran regressions including this variable as robustness checks. Results remain mostly unchanged.

5 The coefficient for satisfaction with the Corona management in the AfD regression loses statistical significance if we include the variable on the individual economic consequences of the pandemic on the respondents and thus restrict our sample to the second survey conducted in December only and at the same time include all policy satisfaction variables at the same time.

6 The coefficient for satisfaction with climate change policy in the regression for voting intention for the Left loses statistical significance if we include the variable on the individual economic consequences of the pandemic on the respondents and thus restrict our sample to the second survey conducted in December only.

7 Regarding climate change, we searched for the German key words ‘Umwelt’ (environment), ‘Klimaschutz’ (climate protection) and ‘Fridays for Future’. Regarding Corona management, we searched for the words ‘Corona’, ‘Covid-19’ and ‘Pandemie’ (pandemic).

8 https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/klima-umwelt-co2-1.4337412 (accessed 20/03/2022).

9 https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2019-05/klimaschutzgesetz-svenja-schulze-umweltministerium-klimakabinett (accessed 20/03/2022).

10 https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/klimapaket-und-klimaschutzgesetz-vom-bundeskabinett-angenommen-a-1290659.html (accessed 20/03/2022).

11 In 2021, the Climate Change Act was tightened substantially. This reform had nothing to do with electoral competition, however, but responded to an earlier decision of the Constitutional Court.

12 https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2021/Maerz_2021/ (accessed 21/03/2022).

13 https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/angela-merkel-und-die-corona-osterruhe-die-nacht-in-der-deutschland-scheiterte-a-212138c6-0002-0001-0000-000176746224?context=issue (accessed 21/03/2022).

14 https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2021/April_2021/ (accessed 21/03/2022)

15 Interestingly, Person, Behnke, and Jürgens (forthcoming) fail to find effects of electoral competition on the implementation of Corona measures at the Länder level, too.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Reimut Zohlnhöfer

Reimut Zohlnhöfer is professor of political science at the Institute of Political Science, Heidelberg University, Germany. His research interests include comparative political economy, policy processes and German politics. He has published in journals such as the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, European Journal of Political Research, European Political Science Review, Journal of European Public Policy, Socio-Economic Review and West European Politics.

Fabian Engler

Fabian Engler is a postdoctoral researcher and lecturer at the Institute of Political Science, Heidelberg University, Germany. His research interests include comparative political economy, political parties and MPs’ legislative behaviour. He has published in journals such as the British Journal of Industrial Relations, British Journal of Political Science, European Journal of Political Research, Journal of European Public Policy, Parliamentary Affairs and Policy Studies Journal.