The rise of China and the US-Western Europe alliance: a crack in the liberal building?

ABSTRACT

The system of alliances is the only element of US power that China is unable and unwilling to surpass in the foreseeable future. However, in the past decade, China’s rise has posed a challenge to the transatlantic alliance in the form of a potential alliance drift that has not been addressed by existing literature. Western European allies of the United States have not hesitated at times to adopt a stance contrary to Washington’s interests, but at other times, they still maintain a position similar to that of the United States when dealing with China. This paper argues that the presence of security concerns is what largely prevents them from adopting a position favourable to China. This conclusion is reached after the examination of three factors (economic opportunities, security concerns and Washington’s pressures) in the behaviour of Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Spain in three crucial cases for the balance of power between Washington and Beijing: the AIIB, the BRI and Huawei’s 5G. The evolution of their responses suggests that China’s rise, once a divisive aspect among allies, has the potential to become an unexpected source of unity for the transatlantic alliance.

KEYWORDS:

• Transatlantic alliance
• China’s rise
• systemic rivalry
• United States
• Western Europe

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 For the data on the overall participation of third countries, including the five countries of analysis, in the AIIB see: https://www.aiib.org/en/about-aiib/governance/members-of-bank/index.html. For the BRI: https://greenfdc.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri/. For the adoption of Huawei’s 5G – until 2021 –, see: https://www.cfr.org/blog/china-huawei-5g.