Trading for survival: trade policy as a credible signal, alliance strategy, and public preferences in Taiwan

Abstract

This article examines the connection between trade policy, alliance strategy, and public preferences. It argues that when a contentious trade agreement is perceived as a credible signal for aligning with a powerful adversary (bandwagoning), it is likely to provoke domestic opposition due to its negative impact on state survival. Conversely, when a contentious trade agreement is seen as a credible signal for counterbalancing an adversary with a non-threatening great power (balancing), it is likely to face less domestic resistance as it enhances state survival. Using a comparative case study design, this article compares two cases in Taiwan: the movement against the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) in 2014 and the backlash against lifting the import ban on US pork containing ractopamine in 2021. In the CSSTA case, the government’s desired trade partner, China, was not sufficiently supported domestically due to public fears of negative security externalities. In the US pork case, the government sent a cue to the public that a trade deal with the US was a credible commitment required to strengthen the bilateral strategic relationship. This message was echoed by people who recognized the positive security externality and the preservation of Taiwan’s sovereignty and political institutions.

Keywords:

• Trade policy
• survival
• alliance
• Taiwan
• Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement
• US pork

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 The poll can be accessed at https://ws.mac.gov.tw/001/Upload/OldFile/public/Attachment/96210255328.pdf.

2 The poll can be accessed at https://ws.mac.gov.tw/001/Upload/OldFile/public/Attachment/4511957623.pdf.

3 TVBS is seen as a pro-KMT media organization that supports further cross-Strait integration. Its poll is methodologically representative.

https://cc.tvbs.com.tw/portal/file/poll_center/2017/20170602/20140324223108658.pdf.

4 The TNSS is conducted by the Program in Asian Security Studies at Duke University. The data can be accessed at https://sites.duke.edu/tnss/. The survey of 2014 was conducted in December 2014.

5 The TVBS poll can be accessed at https://cc.tvbs.com.tw/portal/file/poll_center/2017/20170602/20140321224523298.pdf.

6 Data were collected by the author. Information on all incidents released by the MND can be accessed at https://tinyurl.com/4cajd5tm.

7 Tsai’s posts can be accessed on her Facebook page (3.1 million followers): https://tinyurl.com/5y89x6k4 and https://tinyurl.com/43td5y7h.

8 Lai’s remarks can be accessed on his Facebook page (780,000 followers): https://tinyurl.com/55pmnt7n.

9 Su’s statements can be accessed on his Facebook page (1.2 million followers): https://tinyurl.com/yckmb76u.

10 Hsiao’s remarks can be accessed on her Facebook page (220,000 followers): https://tinyurl.com/2p5bk62c.

11 Please refer to footnote 4. The survey of 2020 was conducted on October 27-31. The data can be accessed at https://sites.duke.edu/tnss/.

12 Please refer to Hsueh (2022) for more detailed analysis of the public opinion on alliance choice in Taiwan.

13 The survey can be accessed at https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6965/Party202206.jpg.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Ian Tsung-yen Chen

Ian Tsung-yen Chen is an Associate Professor at the Institute of Political Science and a Research Fellow at the Sun Yat-sen Research Center for Social Sciences at National Sun Yat-sen University in Taiwan. His research focuses on international political economy, international organizations and Taiwan’s foreign relations. He published the book Configuring the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2021 through Routledge.