A Study of Russia’s Demographic Problems in the Twenty-First Century

ABSTRACT

Russia today faces acute demographic problems, which have been the focus of government policy and media attention. Since studies of population migration are a special topic of demography that requires a separate analysis, the article focuses on the problems of natural population change. In the scientific literature, the study of Russia’s demographic problems represents a distinct perspective. The experts are well versed in the subject and can address nuances that are overlooked “from the outside.” Many social scientists are critical of the government’s attempts to solve Russia’s demographic problems. Government achievements are often downplayed because they have not been completely successful. First, although Russia’s mortality rate has declined for most of the twenty-first century, it is still high when compared to most European countries. Second, although Russia’s birth rate is higher than in most European countries, it is still below the world average. These two facts have both positive and negative interpretations. Nevertheless, all demographic projections indicate that Russia’s population will continue to naturally decline in the coming decades. To solve this problem, it is necessary to research new approaches and develop new demographic policies, which are possible only through the combined efforts of all Russian demographers, despite their theoretical and practical disagreements. The national project Demography and related programs can help address these problems only if the proposed policies are scientifically studied and adapted to real Russian conditions.

KEYWORDS:

• birth rate
• demographic problems
• demographic projections
• mortality
• population size
• Russia

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

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2. Kontseptsiia demograficheskoi politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2025 goda (utverzhdena Ukazom Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 9 oktiabria 2007 goda) (available at https://base.garant.ru/191961/53f89421bbdaf741eb2d1ecc4ddb4c33/#friends; accessed on May 15, 2021).

3. Ukaz Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii “O natsional’nykh tseliakh razvitiia Rossii do 2030 goda” ot 21 iunia 2020 goda No. 474//Prezident Rossii (available at http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63728; accessed on May 15, 2021).

4. These demographic reports were published in subsequent years at the Institute of Demography of the Higher School of Economics. The last of the published reports was “Naselenie Rossii, 2018” [6].

5. Hereinafter, the figures for Russia and its regions, unless otherwise indicated, are according to Rosstat (available at https://rosstat.gov.ru; accessed May 15, 2021).

6. Currently, it is the Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

7. Rossiia: 10 let reform. Sotsial’no-demograficheskaia situatsiia, ed. N.M. Rimashevskaia (Moscow: Institute of Socio-Economic Problems of the Population of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2002), 368 pages.

8. In this section, we mainly consider the general rates of birth and death, since they determine the dynamics of the population (in terms of natural change at the current time).

9. Site data Stopcoranavirus.rf (available at https://stop-coronavirus.rf; accessed on January 5, 2021).

10. “Golikova nazvala chislo rossiian s VICh,” RIA Novosti (available at https://ria.ru/20210201/vich-1595529689.html; accessed March 15, 2021).

11 “Predpolozhitel’naia chislennost’ naseleniia Rossiiskoi Federatsii do 2016 goda,” Statisticheskii biulleten’ (Moscow: Russian State Statistics Committee on Statistics, 2000), 149 pages.

12 Official website of Rosstat (available at https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781; accessed on May 15, 2021).

13 Official website of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (available at https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population; accessed on May 15, 2021).