Spatial vulnerability assessment of urbanites of Rawalpindi to the combined effects of climate change and pandemics using GIS mapping

ABSTRACT

Pakistan is urbanising at an extremely high pace and if this urbanisation is left unplanned, it can not only increase the vulnerability of its residents, but it can be the source of high GHG emissions, thereby increasing vulnerability to climate change. Moreover, not all city inhabitants are equally vulnerable to climate change and Pandemics like Covid-19. This study estimated the vulnerability ranking of urban union councils of Rawalpindi through a composite index without assigning weights, considering 20 physical, economic, social and institutional indicators as drivers of vulnerability, with an emphasis on climate change and the outbreak of chronic diseases. A survey is conducted from the urban residents of Rawalpindi, to measure the vulnerability towards climate change and the outbreak of Covid-19. The sample size was 440 households. The results showed that union councils of New Katarian-II, Dhaman and MC Stadium B Block were less vulnerable as compared to other areas of Rawalpindi with the lowest vulnerability ranking of MC Stadium B Block as 404 and the most vulnerable ranking of Dhok Ratta, UC-2 as 895. Densely populated areas of Dhok Ratta were more vulnerable to high chronic disease exposure and death rates. This study concluded that high population density and composition, low healthcare facilities in slums coupled with low income were the main reasons for chronic disease outbreaks in urban areas. Urban planning or master plans can be a solution for such densely populated areas and high-rise buildings with green infrastructure can reduce the impact of the heat island effect.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19
• vulnerability to climate change
• population density
• urban planning
• composite index

JEL Classifications:

• I00
• Q56
• R23

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Ethical approval

We confirm that this work is original and has not been published elsewhere, nor is it currently under consideration for publication elsewhere.

Consent to participate

Moreover, informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

Data availability statement

Data will be available on request.