Paradox of optimism: opposition coordination against autocratic incumbents in Turkey’s 2019 and 2023 elections

ABSTRACT

In the 2019 local and 2023 general elections, Turkey’s opposition parties joined forces in pursuit of a common objective: to oust autocratic incumbents and democratize the political system. While they achieved noteworthy successes in 2019, replicating these gains in the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections proved elusive. This study reveals that coordinating opposition efforts becomes more challenging during general elections, particularly when a charismatic presidential candidate, capable of fostering synergy among opposition factions and voters, is absent. Additionally, when opposition parties span the ideological spectrum, crafting a unified campaign around a shared manifesto becomes more intricate. The resulting atmosphere of uncertainty is exacerbated further in the absence of decisive leadership. Most importantly, the research highlights a paradox: as optimism for electoral victory grows, parties become more inclined to form alliances but less willing to nominate a strong leader, due to concerns about power-sharing overshadowing electoral success. This paradox diminishes the chances of opposition victory.

KEYWORDS:

• Opposition coordination
• authoritarian elections
• Turkey
• populism

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Evren Balta

Evren Balta holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the Graduate Center, CUNY (2007), an MA in Sociology from Middle East Technical University (1999), and an MIA from Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs (2001). She received her BA degree in International Relations from Ankara University, Faculty of Political Sciences. Her articles have appeared in many different journals, such as Party Politics, Ethnic and Racial Studies, Sociology, and Gender Place & Culture. She is the author of Politics of the Future (with Fuat Keyman, Ayrinti Publications, 2022), The American Passport in Turkey: National Citizenship in the Age of Transnationalism (with O Altan-Olcay, UPenn, 2020), Age of Uneasiness (İletisim Publications, 2019), and Global Security Complex (İletisim Publications, 2012). She is the editor of Neighbors with Suspicion: Dynamics of Turkish-Russian Relations (with G. Ozcan and B. Besgul, İletisim Publications, 2017), Introduction to Global Politics (Iletisim Publications, 2014), and Military, State and Politics in Turkey (with I. Akca, Bilgi University Publications, 2010). Her book, The American Passport, received the American Sociological Association Global and Transnational Sociology section’s Best Book by an International Scholar Award.

Seda Demiralp

Seda Demiralp holds a PhD in Political Science from the Department of Public Affairs at American University in Washington DC (2008). She received her BA degree from Boğaziçi University, Department of Political Science and International Relations. Prior to joining Işık University she taught at the School of International Service at American University as a visiting assistant professor. She is currently an associate professor of political science at the Department of International Relations, Işık University. Her studies mainly concentrate on democratization, state–business relations, and Middle East politics. Some of her recent work also considers representation of femininity and masculinity in Middle Eastern literature. Her work has been published in various journals, including Comparative Politics, Third World Quarterly, Middle East Journal, Middle Eastern Studies, Arab Studies Quarterly, New Perspectives on Turkey, and Turkish Studies.