Exploring the dynamics of stakeholders’ perspectives towards planning low-carbon energy transitions: a case of the Nigerian power sector

ABSTRACT

This study uses a multi-stakeholder analysis approach to consolidate low-carbon energy planning and facilitate energy transition (ET). To do this, we assess factors that influence ET strategies in the Nigerian power sector. Here we employ both quantitative and qualitative data obtained via well-structured, and concise questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. While our study brings to light a sustainable approach to achieving a low-carbon future, it identified technology, motivation and finance as variables that are significant in accelerating the country’s transition to clean energy. It revealed that prioritising low-interest rate and tax holiday for investors’ of solar energy and consistence expansion in energy efficiency (EE) is pertinent to achieving a sustainable low-carbon future in Nigeria. We conclude that robust policy frameworks that prioritise investment in solar energy and EE through incentivising energy management solutions with appropriate financial tools and fostering active verbal support through advocacy are essential to ET in Nigeria.

KEYWORDS:

• Clean energy planning
• energy transitions
• multi-stakeholder energy analysis
• Nigerian power sector
• energy efficient technology
• solar energy

1. Introduction

Global warming (GW) is threatening our existence on earth. To date, every region has experienced diverse challenges due to global warming caused by increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions (NASA 2021). Globally, about 65% of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are due to fossil fuels use, a dynamic shift to clean energy sources is pertinent to curb the continues emissions of CO₂ (IPCC 2014). Transitioning from fossil fuel to a cleaner energy paradigm requires reliable and ambitious measures by nations to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhance the security of their respective energy systems. As such, several governments have pledged their commitments to limit their emissions (Parry 2015). While most developed economies are committed to cutting down their GHG emissions, some developing countries are concerned about ensuring the security of the energy supply (IRENA 2017). Meanwhile, a three- to five-fold increase in electricity demand is projected in developing countries over the next 30 years (Ahuja and Tatsutani 2009). This increasing energy demand will be met by fossil fuel resources if a deliberate clean energy future driven by decarbonisation of the power sector is not prioritised (Fankhauser and Jotzo 2017). Therefore, it is opined that emerging economies fully harness the economic prosperity that comes with low-carbon development.

It is worth noting that planning a low-carbon energy future is one of the prerequisites to limiting GHG emissions that may have the potential to cause a rise in global average temperature. Such planning is pertinent in the energy sector because fossil-led economies are depleting (OPEC 2016) and constitute critical environmental and health challenges through indoor and outdoor air pollution (Manisalidis et al. 2020). Furthermore, large hydropower plants are increasingly threatened by shrinking rivers, thereby shaking the security of electricity supplies in countries dependent on hydropower (Kaunda, Kimambo, and Nielsen 2012).

Several studies have explored thematic area of energy transition, including perspectives of energy transitions(Khalilpour 2018; Schreurs 2020), including international reports (OECD/IEA and IRENA, “Executive Summary/Chapter 1” 2017; IEA 2017; IEA 2023). For example, Doran et al. (2022) examine how people perceived societal low carbon transition and its possible pathways, with respect to energy production and use. Solar, wind and hydro were perceived to be more effective for mitigating impact on climate change, whereas, energy production from nuclear was perceived to have no mitigating impact. Also, Sorman et al. (2020) examine expert stakeholders that guide future energy insights on low-carbon transitions in Spain.

Emerging economies have committed to cutting down emissions in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, these nations struggle to meet low-carbon commitments made in their respective NDCs (UNDP 2016). In the case of Nigeria, the government has pledged in her NDCs to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2030, when compared to business-as-usual levels (NDC 2021). The GHG emissions have been consistently rising with about 271% increase since 1990 (shown in Figure 1), and was the 17th biggest (2nd in Africa) after South Africa (Hansen 2021). There is indeed need to abate GHG emissions in Nigeria for both economic prosperity and social wellbeing.

Figure 1. Carbon emissions in Nigeria from 1960 to 2020. Data source: (TealTool 2021).

In addition, a silent crisis is unfolding in developing countries like Nigeria, where about 85 million of its population live without access to electricity (World Bank 2021). This shortage makes the residents heavily dependent on wood, which has remained scarce and over-exploited, thus making more vulnerable the poor and endangering efforts to reduce poverty, thereby making Nigeria the country with the largest energy access deficit in the world (World Bank 2021). Transitioning to clean energy tends to improve and bridge the country’s existing energy gap and deficit (World Bank 2021). This transiting to a low-carbon energy system is not simply a matter of replacing polluting electricity sources with renewables, but rather creating new power systems that enhance energy security, based on efficiency, renewable, and flexible and decentralised (including off-grid) infrastructure, thus preventing a situation in which growing demand is met with fossil fuel sources (IRENA 2021; Li and Jiang 2019).

To achieve a successful penetration of clean energy in Nigeria, the government in 2005 developed a medium to a long-term plan to gradually face out crude oil. In the medium term, Nigeria envisions an energy transition from crude oil to a less carbon-intensive economy, increasingly powered by natural gas (The Guardian 2021). The impact of renewable energy on the national energy supply was also forecasted to be felt in the medium term. In the long term, the country’s total dependence on hydrocarbons was envisioned to decrease significantly. Moreover, the plan was updated in 2011. It sought to increase the quota of renewable electricity by 13%, 23%, and 36%, respectively, in 2015, 2025, and 2030. In contrast, IEA and IRENA projected renewable energy to account for about 10% of the Nigerian total energy consumption by 2025 (IEA/IRENA 2013). Unfortunately, fifteen years after, the growth, exploration, and utilisation of renewable energy have not been significantly felt. Currently, the share of renewable energy in the total electricity consumption is still marginal (Ojo, Awogbemi, and Ojo 2020).

Furthermore, despite a series of policy frameworks, laws, regulations, legislation, standards, policies, strategies, and plans to propel national low-carbon development, little impact on clean energy has been achieved in attaining the needed energy security. Achieving a low-carbon energy agenda in Nigeria could have been hampered by a lack of robust and proper stakeholders’ involvement in the short-, medium-, and long-term planning processes (OECD/IEA/NEA/ITF 2015). According to Yawson & Greiman (2014), there is a need to conduct a stakeholder analysis that aimed at gleaning vital information essential to planning a low-carbon energy future at the national level. Eventually, a well-planned low-carbon energy sector would enable successful realisation of nation’s strategies and plan. Consequently, scholars recommend that stakeholder analysis be both a tool and approach to understanding the preferences and views of experts on a subject matter and enhancing communication between researchers and policymakers (Balane et al. 2020).

Consequently, using a multi-stakeholder analysis, the current study applied an interactive approach to consolidate low-carbon energy planning and facilitate Nigeria’s energy transition. Thus, the approach was designed to capture technology uncertainties and complexities in finance innovation that are peculiar to developing clean energy portfolios in emerging economies. In light of this, the study explores the dynamics of stakeholders’ perspectives toward planning a low-carbon energy future of the Nigerian power sector. Hence, the study adopts a systematic and descriptive statistical approach to analyse stakeholders’ views in the context of low-carbon energy planning.

The rest of this study is organised as follows: Section 2 details the theoretical and conceptual framework, Section 3 set out the methodology which elucidates techniques used to explore the dynamics of stakeholder analysis, Section 4 provides findings from analysis of data, and Section 5 discusses the implication of this investigation, while Section 6 concludes the study with some policy implication.

2. Theoretical and conceptual framework

This section introduces the conceptual and theoretical framework adopted for this study. While Section 2.1 presents the theoretical framework, which provides understanding of techniques that forms the basis, Section 2.2 presents the conceptual framework of this study.

2.1. Theoretical framework

2.1.1. Planning and energy transitions paradigm

The world is changing, wherein our climate is altered due to the continued exploitation of fossil resources. Given the severity of the threat posed by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily driven by fossil fuel combustion, it is increasingly recognised that the entire world needs to transit to a cleaner source of energy production, coupled with behavioural change (York and Bell 2019). Changing the energy infrastructure, architecture, and wise use of existing resources to meet our daily energy needs is a way of mitigating and ameliorating the abrupt changes posed by global warming. Smil (2010) considered this pattern of energy transition and implied complete decarbonisation of the current energy system. In contrast, Fattouh et al. (2018) believed that energy transition is a radical shift in the energy systems’ exploitation from an existing model to a new paradigm, such as renewable energy (specifically solar and wind resources).

Although climate change and its impacts are global, mitigating these impacts through transitioning to clean energy is somewhat country-specific. Different nations are at various stages of economic, infrastructure, and technology development. The sub-Saharan African countries (especially Nigeria) have experienced several changes in their energy evolution, which have not been sustainable due to inconsistent energy policy, technical know-how, and conspicuous corruption (Adewuyi et al. 2020). To this end, current study approach to energy transition in the developing clime would be different from those experienced in the developed economies due to some significant differences in their realities, such as rate of development, infrastructure, and political stability. These changes in realities require vast understanding of dynamics involved in energy transition of emerging economies and how to implement major relevancies into her future energy planning. Implementing energy transition prospects into the national energy planning would enhance the global realisation of mitigation efforts. However, planning a holistic energy transition is best achieved by a concerted effort, where relevant stakeholders are involved in the planning process. Additionally, developing countries face many challenges in implementing renewable technologies; they often suffer from a lack of resources, a dearth of political will, and challenging national priorities that prevent establishing any facilitative action (Adewuyi et al. 2020).

The situation in the Nigerian Power sector is similar to those of some developing countries, where there is a wide gap between modern energy supply and demand. In these countries, the wide gap has resulted in the consistent black-out, brownout, and frequent power sheds, thereby making most power consumers engage in dirty, polluting, unreliable power supply through self-supply from petrol or diesel generators. Several attempts and strategies to plan a low-carbon development are yet to succeed because of no evidence of improved livelihood and economic prosperity. However, transitioning to clean energy could be influenced by several variables which include but not limited to technology, innovation, finance, knowledge, and information about energy transitions, motivation to adopt clean transition(Komendantova 2021; Biresselioglu and Demir 2021; WEF 2023). In the light of the challenges confronting the Nigerian energy sector transitioning to cleaner energy will to be confronted by divers’ bottlenecks. For these reasons, our study investigates the relationships between energy transition and energy transitions factors such as technological innovation, finance, information, and motivation. Investigation is based on perspectives of energy stakeholder. Would the changes in the aforementioned variables translate into developing the country’s low-carbon agenda?

This study thus identified the following research questions: (i) which clean energy technologies should be prioritised to plan a low carbon future? (ii) how would this transition look like in achieving a sustainable future? (iii) what financial innovation would most be relevant in the power sector to enhance a low-carbon future? (iv) how would the aforementioned variables have effect on Nigeria energy transition? To this end, current study therefore considers one dependent variable (i.e. energy transition) and four independent variables (i.e. technology, motivation, finance, information) to develop the study’s hypothesis. The four hypotheses considered are presented as follows: where H₀ and H_a represents the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis, respectively.

H₀: innovation does not have significant effect on energy transition

H_a: innovation has significant effect on energy transition

H_o: technology does not have significant effect on energy transition

H_a: technology has significant effect on energy transition

H_o: motivation does not have significant effect on energy transition

H_a: motivation has significant effect on energy transition

H_o: finance does not have significant effect on energy transition

H_a: finance has significant effect on energy transition

2.1.2. Concept of stakeholder theory and motivation for energy transition

Although the concept of stakeholder is broad, however, its usage is dependent on the content and research framework (Franklin 2020). Considering the complex nature of defining stakeholder theory and motivation, Franklin (2020) proposes a system dynamics approach for making theories of stakeholder motivation. In the similar view, stakeholder engagement should be strategically inclusive, while considering the following stakeholders’ values: representative, transparent, accessible, responsive, and accountable. When the aforementioned values are holistically and critically achieved in view to stakeholder analysis, it will result in a sustainable policy (Skordoulis, Ntanos, and Kyriakopoulos 2020).

Studies have shown that a significant way of enhancing robust policy and implementation is through stakeholder analysis (Doran et al. 2022; Balane et al. 2020; Varvasovszky 2000). According to Schmeer (2000), a stakeholder is any entity/organisation or actor with a declared or conceivable interest or stake in a promoted policy. Stakeholder analysis is, therefore, both an approach and a tool (Varvasovszky 2000; Varvasovszky and Brugha 2000). It aims at generating knowledge about an actor’s preference on a subject matter for policy implication (Mulyaningrum et al. 2013). This study employed stakeholder analysis to evaluate key actors and assess their interests, positions, views, alliances, and perspectives to enhance planning a low-carbon energy future in the Nigerian power sector. The approach allows scientists to interact effectively with key stakeholders and to know their support and interest in sharing their opinions on energy transition policy and related programmes. The conduct of stakeholder analysis could allow for the proper aligning of government policies in such a manner that prevents potential misunderstandings and misinterpretations during implementation (Edomah, Bazilian, and Sovacool 2020). This procedure implies that when stakeholder analysis is conducted early, policy implementation processes such as matters about energy transition are more likely to succeed (Yawson and Greiman 2015).

In the light of that, Balane et al. (2020) applied stakeholder analysis for developing a framework that contributes to policy implementation research by offering practical tools for analysing the characteristics of actors in the health sector and also policymaking in defining the legality of lumbering in the private forest (Mulyaningrum et al. 2013). The work of Pizarro-irizar et al. (2020) conducted a stakeholder analysis that assessed their perspectives on low-carbon energy transitions. Their study employed an approach of quantitative data collection via an online survey and stakeholders’ engagement to identify barriers between stakeholders and scientists concerning climate change mitigation actions. In addition, the results from their study revealed that there is a need for more communication between stakeholders and modellers (scientists). Similarly, van Wijk (2021) assessed the acceleration of energy transition in the Dutch power sector, from the perspective of a utility power company in collaboration with their stakeholders, by creating stakeholder values using the stakeholder theory (Bidhan et al. 2010). After that, a robust understanding was established through a shared purpose between the power company and the stakeholders. Also, stakeholder theory was applied to assess the adoption of solar energy technology in Lebanon, focusing on the socio-cultural dimension. The study revealed that social, cultural, geographic, and market dimensions played a crucial role in the uptake of solar energy technology by different consumer groups (Elmustapha, Hoppe, and Bressers 2018). In a similar light, Sovacool (2016) examines the temporal scale of energy transition on a global and national scale. Sovacool found that timing of energy transition may not always be supported by empirical evidence. Sovacool therefore argues that a more holistic approach and transparent conception to assessing energy transitions should be considered.

To achieve a holistic analysis of national energy transition, current study has applied approaches and tools of stakeholder analysis ‘transparent conception’ outlined by Varvasovszky (2000), Varvasovszky and Brugha (2000) and Yawson and Greiman (2015) and considered a systemic approach – ‘an holistic approach,’ thus making the work novel (Sovacool 2016). This approach, therefore, enhances the credibility of the study by exploring the dynamics of stakeholders’ preferences via a system thinking method. System thinking found its root application from system dynamics, where a causal loop diagram is employed to understand interactions and feedback loops between relevant variables (Shari and Moumouni 2020; Shari, Moumouni, and Momodu 2020).

2.2 Conceptual framework of the study

A systemic approach was utilised to design a conceptual framework for this research. The systemic approach is part of the system thinking conceptual framework (Banson 2016), which qualitatively explains the study objectives, i.e. stakeholders’ perspective to energy planning and a national low-carbon energy transitions agenda. The conceptual framework elucidates the (i) methodology and (ii) theoretical/conceptual framework to design a methodological background for the study. Figure 2 shows a framework that has informed the orientation of the research. According to Figure 2, the study has evolved through five-phase steps, including:

1. Research perspective and agenda: stakeholders’ engagement, views, drivers, and opinion,

2. Data (primary data), which includes quantitative and qualitative data,

3. Surveys in the form of structured interviews and online & real-time questionnaires,

4. Analyses that are statistical and qualitative based on system thinking; see Sterman (2000), Maani and Maharaj (2004), Shari and Moumouni (2020), and Shari et al. (2020) for more details, and

5. Policy implication on planning a low-carbon energy future.

Figure 2. Conceptual framework of study (Source: Authors).

The innovative aspect of this work is the perspective and plan that informed stakeholder engagement study. We carried out that initiative through a two-way survey, i.e. combined online and real-time questionnaire, alongside some structured interviews with decision-making stakeholders and non-decision-making stakeholders in the electricity sector (Edomah, Ndulue, and Lemaire 2021).

3. Method

3.1. Research design

This section presents information concerning the research design, data type, data collection, and data analysis for the case of planning a low-carbon energy future from the viewpoint of relevant stakeholders in the Nigerian power sector.

In this study, special attention was paid to the views and perspectives of relevant stakeholders in the power sector. A mixed methodology was employed to assess their viewpoints: a structured survey approach using stakeholder interviews for qualitative data and a questionnaire for quantitative data (Pizarro-irizar et al. 2020). The theoretical approach employed enables us to gain insight from existing literature (Elmustapha, Hoppe, and Bressers 2018). On the one hand, information feedback was employed to show relationships and patterns observed in the qualitative survey, to understand the information feedback that explains causal relationships among stakeholders’ opinions towards planning a low-carbon energy future in Nigeria. On the other hand, quantitative data collected via questionnaire survey were analysed using a statistical approach in IBM SPSS and R software (SPSS 2020; Harris 2018).

To achieve the goals of the study, the questionnaire investigated four main criteria:

1. Mapping stakeholders and their core motivations,

2. Informing about low-carbon energy transitions,

3. Technology options and preferences, and finally

4. Issues concerning national energy transition and financial innovation.

Additionally, the stakeholders’ interviews explored three thematic issues of energy transitions:

1. Personal experience on energy transitions,

2. Energy transitions and its concerns, and

3. Finances and economies of energy transitions.

Figure 3 presents the framework that governs the survey. Furthermore, this exact figure illustrates the interrelationships between data collected via questionnaires and interviews. It is also worth noting that information captured with the use of questionnaires was closed-ended. As such, it might not reveal information related to some uncertainties and dynamic patterns of the study. This fact was made up for in the interview, according to Nayak and Narayan (2019). Outcomes would thereby map relevant uncertainties of low-carbon energy transitions.

Figure 3. Framework approach to survey data collection (Source: Authors).

3.2. Data

The surveys have considered various protocols due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the peculiarity of the Nigerian workplaces, such as limited stakeholders’ time, work from home (WFH) policy, and available resources. As a result, the questionnaire was concisely designed, and interview sessions were done with appropriate permission. Besides, it is important to state that stakeholders’ in the power sector were identified and not selected at random but the selection was made based on guidance from the National Energy Master Plan (ECN, “Energy Commission of Nigeria FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA,” Abuja 2018).

The limited schedule of respondents informed the snowball sampling technique during the survey process (Dragan and Isaic-Maniu 2013). According to Table 1, respondents and their affiliations were carefully selected among the following: (i) government (46.9%); (ii) service providers (19.4%); (iii) regulators (4.1%); (iv) financial actors (5.1%); (v) science, academia, and research institutes (14.3%); and (vi) others (10.2%), which includes inter-government organisations, consumers, associations, trade unions and workers, advisors, civil societies, and media. The respondents cut across local, national, and international parastatals. The approach remains helpful to illustrate how the views of stakeholders can be incorporated into the planning of a low-carbon energy transition. These selections, therefore, captured the stakeholders’ core motivation in the questionnaire. Furthermore, observation research – more-structured and less-structured – was conducted to guide the collection of quantitative and qualitative data, respectively. This scheme is in line with Sapsford & Jupp (Sapsford and Jupp 1996).

Table 1. Affiliations of the stakeholders (%).

Affiliation	Percentage
Governments	46.9%
Service providers	19.4%
Regulators	4.1%
Financial actors	5.1%
Science, academia, and research institutes	14.3%
Others	10.2%
Total	100%

The selected stakeholders were consulted during stakeholders’ and policy review conferences, meetings, and workshops organised by the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) between November 2020 and July 2021. About 150 samples of the questionnaire were administered during those mentioned energy policy conferences.

Furthermore, energy organisations/stakeholders such as the Electricity Consumer Associations not represented during the workshops were visited. Hence, the stakeholders answered about 45% of the administered questionnaires upon retrieval. In addition, an online survey via Google form was utilised to reach more stakeholders that would have been otherwise left behind. This strategy also allowed us to reach out to others that attended the multi-technical online events. About twenty-four (24) responses were obtained from the online survey, out of which 96% were relevant – making a total of 98 samples of questionnaires retrieved from physical and/or virtual surveys. However, from 98% of the recovered questionnaires, about 75% were obtained from in-person surveys, while 25% were online. In addition, several other interview sessions (online, calls, and face-to-face) were scheduled and conducted successfully. Three (3) comprehensive interview sessions were granted and recorded. It is worth pointing out that special permissions were taken from each respondent before the recording took place.

In addition, stakeholder sampling biases that could ensue as a result of selection biases were circumvented by avoiding convenient sampling, that is authors have made a consistent effort to collect data and information from not only easily available and accessible respondents but also made a conscious effort to mobilise responses from the different subgroups that make up a particular group of interest, in the form of focused group discussion and interview. In addition, respondents who did not respond to the interview and questionnaire on time were politely informed and reminded. More importantly, the authors have carefully and systematically defined the target population for the survey, the parameters for sample selection, and the sampling frame of the study. These are represented in Table 1, and Figures 4 and 5, respectively.

Figure 4. Stakeholders’ area of interest in power sector.

Figure 5. Stakeholders’ involvement in clean energy projects.

The quantitative data were analysed accordingly employing descriptive and inferential statistical approaches. Meanwhile, the Pearson correlation coefficient using the Pearson correlation formula shown in Equation 1 has been used for the inferential approach. (1) $r=={\displaystyle \frac{\sum \left(x_i-\overline{x}\right)\left(y_i-\overline{y}\right)}{\sqrt{\sum {\left(x_i-\overline{x}\right)}^2\sum {\left(y_i-\overline{y}\right)}^2}}}$(1) where r represents correlation coefficient,$\rho \left(x,y\right)$ represents Pearson correlation of the independent variable $x$ and independent variable y;$x_i$ is the values of the x-variable in a sample;$\overline{x}$ represents mean of x-variable; $y_i$ are values of the y-variable in a sample; $\overline{y}$ represents mean of the y-variable. Results were systematically cross-checked for inconsistencies in the responses from respondents and any missing data. Afterward, we coded the results with Microsoft Excel and Python. We then carried out meticulous checks for data consistency purposes. Recorded voice interviews were manually transcribed and coded. The data collection, debugging, cleaning, and analysis process was rigorous. Therefore, a preliminary understanding of the relationships and patterns was observed. These observations helped to guide the analysis and result presentations.

4. Results

This section presents the main findings of the study. The outcome of the study is outlined as follows: (i) mapping stakeholders’ core motivation and affiliation (Section 4.1), (ii) response on stakeholders’ perception of energy transitions such as low-carbon transitions and technology options & preference (Section 4.2), and finally (iii) economies and finances of energy transition (Section 4.3) using both descriptive and inferential statistical approaches.

4.1. Mapping of stakeholders and their core motivations

This section presents the analysis of stakeholders’ affiliation and their core motivations concerning the primary area of interest in clean energy projects. The transitions of the latter are equally covered in this section.

4.1.1. Primary areas of interest in the power sector

The main objective of this sub-sector is to confirm the sampling of respondents during the various surveys and the alignment of their interests and affiliations to low-carbon energy transitions. As a result, Figure 3 portrays eight primary areas of interest of stakeholders’ engagement in the power sector; these include (i) policymaking, (ii) policy coordination, (iii) investment and finance, (iv) supply and electrification, (v) system operator, (vi) transmission and distribution, (vii) market operator, and (viii) research and development. Categorical variables assessed on the Likert scale, abbreviated as M – Most important, I – important, N – Neutral, L – less important, and Lt – least important, were utilised to categorise and investigate stakeholders’ affiliations and priorities concerning their area of interest (see Figure 4).

According to the outcome of stakeholder’s primary area of interest represented in Figure 4, about 72.7% and 78.4% of government affiliates claimed that policymaking and policy coordination, respectively, are the essential areas of interest to their organisations. This perception indicates that affiliates from government parastatals have interests, ranging from Most Important (M) to Important (I), and are involved in all the core areas of interest in the power sector. Also, service providers claimed that the core area of interest is market operator (87.5%), transmission and distribution (91.7%), and system operator (80%).

Also, financial actors found most relevance in investment and finance (25%) and were sometimes involved in policy coordination. Affiliates from science, academia, research institutes, and the government claimed that research and development are the most important. In contrast, ‘others’ show no significant interest in research and development (R&D), policy coordination, and system operator. Overall, this implies that stakeholders in the power sector have mixed and overlapping interests, as shown in Figure 4.

Considering the stakeholders’ involvement in multiple clean energy projects as presented in Figure 5, about 88.8% of the respondents claimed to be involved in one or more clean energy projects. Of these proportions, advocacy and innovative renewable energy and energy efficiency projects are the most executed tasks, with 76.5% of the respondents in clean projects. In comparison, R&D (72.4%) is the second most executed project among the respondents. In addition, fewer stakeholders’ have performed projects related to investments in clean cook stoves (44.9%). It is worthy to note that the various respondents engaged in other pilot projects, such as the following:

1. renewable technologies (solar panels, mini-grid, biofuel refinery, etc.),

2. design and construction of hydropower plant,

3. training awareness and capacity building, and

4. Nuclear technologies.

The above-mentioned were areas of clean energy projects that respondents undertook with a 13.2% proportion of the total claimed clean energy projects.

Concerning the involvement of stakeholders at different stages of the development of energy projects, affiliates from the government are always involved in one or more of the early stages (conception, planning, design, and feasibility studies), development/deliberation stages, funding, evaluation, and monitoring. Service operators claimed to be often involved in the implementation/operation stage of clean energy projects. Compared to the government's affiliates, service providers are constantly engaged in the execution and communication stage of the energy projects.

4.2. Perceptions of stakeholders on energy transitions

This subsection assessed stakeholders’ views and tasks in relation to energy transition and presents the results of the survey by outlining stakeholders’ opinion on information about energy transition, technical and behavioural requirements, and financial innovation options toward planning a low-carbon future.

4.2.1. Information about low-carbon energy transition

To sample the opinion of stakeholders and the level of how informed they are about the energy transition stakeholders’ analysis have proven that: all respondents claimed to be aware of the concept of the energy transition. Also, to affirm the claim, about 75.5% of the respondents asserted to be mindful of the international treaty on climate change – the Paris Agreement. In addition, about 91.8% of the respondents affirmed that energy transition is a significant structural shift in the energy sector from fossil fuel-based energy production systems to renewable energy sources. This implies that most of the respondents are aware and familiar with the concepts, implication of energy transitions.

The results show that about 69.4% of respondents claimed that the Nigerian energy system had not undergone significant structural changes in its power sector regarding low-carbon transitions. Meanwhile, about 56.1% of respondents have not been involved in low-carbon/clean energy training for the power sector. The dependency on fossil fuel is still significant to about 67.3%, and the respondents consented that reliance on fossil fuel is not fading out any soon in the Nigerian energy space. This could result from Nigeria’s heavy dependence on fossil fuel for electricity generation in the form of captive/self-electricity generation from diesel-powered generators. Because of the dependency on fossil fuels, respondents suggested the need to increase advocacy about low-carbon development and include it in the nation’s education curriculum across all levels. As such, about 92.9% of respondents claim that the concept of a low-carbon energy future in the nation’s academic curriculum to enhance advocacy would promote clean energy.

To further affirm respondents’ perception of the energy transition, Table 2 presents descriptive statistics of the five-point Likert scale on stakeholders’ opinions regarding the most critical task of energy transitions. On the five Likert scales, the mean is considered on an interval of 1–1.8, which means ‘least important’; 1.81–2.60, meaning ‘less important’; 2.61–3.40, meaning ‘neutral’; 3.41–4.20, meaning ‘important’; and finally, 4.21–5, which stands for ‘most important.’

Table 2. Descriptive statistics on relevant tasks that describes energy transition.

	N	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Std. Deviation
Sustaining in every way possible	93	2	5	4.56	.598
Develop energy efficiency standards	93	2	5	4.52	.653
Making others aware of the importance of energy transition	94	2	5	4.48	.582
Gaining more Knowledge of the topic	94	3	5	4.39	.513
Implementing clean energy agenda	94	3	5	4.50	.600
Develop clean energy policy	95	1	5	4.59	.644
Valid N	90

Note: 5- most important, 4- important, 3- neutral, 2- less important, 1- least important.

According to Table 2, most respondents considered sustainability in all its ramifications as the essential task of the energy transition, shown by a mean of 4.56. Also, respondents agreed that developing energy efficiency standards is a crucial task in the energy transition. Furthermore, the respondents claimed that capacity building alongside gaining knowledge of clean energy is another important task of the energy transition. More so, more respondents have considered the development of clean energy policies as the most significant task of the energy transition with a mean of 4.59.

In addition, Table 2 affirms that advocacy makes others aware of the importance of energy transition and gaining more knowledge about the energy transition. These are the most relevant tasks to be prioritised in achieving a low-carbon energy future. However, developing an appropriate clean energy policy takes prominence among the tasks considered.

To further confirm the outcomes from Table 2, relevant and actionable concepts that would boost the achievement of a low-carbon energy future are presented as the mean on a five-point Likert scale in Table 3. Most respondents agreed that sustainability, affordability, reliability, safety, power infrastructure, and feasibility are critical in achieving low-carbon development. Nonetheless, the majority (according to the mean) of respondents have claimed that achieving a sustainable low-carbon energy future is the most relevant agenda of energy transitions. At the same time, affordability is rated as the second (mean 4.61) most crucial concept in energy transitions. Furthermore, respondents acknowledged that smart grid systems and decentralisation are also important to achieving a low-carbon future. This fact implies that affordable clean energy is crucial in attaining energy transitions, which is likely going to come through decentralised and smart grid systems. In contrast, respondents were neutral to the idea of a central utility grid system (the mean was 3.26).

Table 3. Descriptive statistics on the relevant concept to drive a low-carbon energy future for a successful energy transition.

	N	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Std. Deviation
Affordability	96	3	5	4.61	.550
Reliability	96	2	5	4.59	.573
Sustainability	96	3	5	4.65	.523
Feasibility	93	2	5	4.34	.634
Safety	95	3	5	4.52	.650
Decentralisation (off-grid)	96	2	5	4.07	.849
Central utility grid system	91	1	5	3.26	1.094
Smart grid system	94	2	5	4.10	.791
Power infrastructure	92	2	5	4.40	.712
Valid N	85

Note. 5- most important, 4- important, 3- neutral, 2- less important, 1- least important.

We further carried out an analysis as shown in Table 4; respondents reaffirmed that advocacy of clean energy and investment in climate change would enhance low-carbon development. The outcomes (Table 4) also showed that energy-efficient products and human behaviours are important and play significant roles in achieving sustainable energy transitions. In addition, respondents claimed that transitioning to clean energy was a possible solution that could bring about economic prosperity by meeting electricity demand.

Table 4. Descriptive statistics on the relevant concept to drive a low-carbon energy future.

	N	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Std. Deviation
The energy transition is an important subject, which should definitely get attention in my environment.	97	3	5	4.71	.499
The government should take measurements against global warming, not the Nigerian residents.	96	1	5	3.26	1.275
Transitioning to cleaner energy is a possible solution to power supply-demand gap and bring about economic prosperity.	96	2	5	4.11	.832

4.2.2. Technology options and preferences

To achieve the sustainable development goal seven (7) by 2030 and the African Union (AU) agenda on energy access and clean transition by 2063, it remains vital that stakeholders lead the way and collectively act now. Hence, Figure 6 shows stakeholders’ preferences on potential technologies necessary for achieving SDGs 7 and the AU agenda. More respondents have considered solar photovoltaic (77.1%) and energy efficiency (62.8%) as the two most critical technological approaches in the short-medium (2030) and long term (2063). In contrast, less than 2% of respondents considered coal an essential and/or important technology; this could be due to the adverse contribution of coal to the environment. In a bid to consider technology that could make coal cleaner, respondents were neutral to carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a technology. Also, only about 21.6% of respondents considered CCS as necessary (Figure 6). This state of mind could be due to the current state-of-the-art and the technical know-how about CCS technology. For other technologies (not stated in the survey), over 60% of those that selected other technology have considered nuclear as part of the future clean energy mix, implying that nuclear might gain future relevancy and attention among low-carbon future technology mix in Nigeria.

Figure 6. Required technology to achieve SDGs 7 (2030) and AU 2063.

Considering climate change mitigation and investment, about 84.5%, 69.6%, in that order, of respondents, have shown support for solar energy and energy efficiency as the most important means (see Figure 7) that should attract support, investment, and prioritisation. Respondents also considered storage (45%) and green hydrogen (40.3%) important, while they claimed that coal and CCS technologies should receive minor support in terms of investment in climate change mitigation.

Figure 7. Technology to be invested in to enhance resilience against climate change impact.

Figure 8 shows the evolution of technology as Nigeria transits to a low-carbon. Analysis indicates that energy efficiency technology, solar technology, wind, and hydropower would expand relative to coal which is likely to phase out. However, respondents claimed that natural gas (NG) is expected to grow in the next 30 years for both fuel and technology. This growth could be attributable to the low-carbon content nature of NG, developed technology of NG exploration, and the nation’s commitment to its utilisation as for cooking and as a substitute fuel for automobiles.

Figure 8. Evolution of technology in Nigeria.

Lastly, considering stakeholders’ perspectives, technologies that should be of interest and are likely to drive Nigeria’s low-carbon future are solar energy (solar photovoltaic) and energy efficiency. These choices of technologies are also emphasised in the Nigerian Energy Master Plan.

4.3. Financial innovation for low-carbon future

This subsection examines stakeholders’ views on financial innovation, which would otherwise be prioritised to achieve appropriate clean energy development in Nigeria. In Figure 9, stakeholders’ responses indicate that Nigeria is not giving much attention/consideration to low-carbon actions in the annual budget. However, respondents proffer solutions that would push energy transitions to the national debate to gain relevant attention in the country’s yearly budget.

Figure 9. Attention giving to energy transition in the Nigeria national annual budget.

Respondents who claimed that the country was not giving much attention to energy transition in its annual energy budget suggested some innovations that could enhance transitioning to clean energy. Responses in Figure 10 show that clean energy advocacy (21.4%) and proper policy and implementation (27.6%) of low-carbon energy initiatives were considered as innovations that could enhance energy transitions to gain relevance in the nation’s budget (Figure 10). However, about 1.01% of respondents claimed that commitments to climate change, such as the Paris Agreement, could drive this innovation. This commitment implies that policy and implementation, advocacy, investment through subsidy and partnership (with relevant local and international stakeholders), and capacity building are relevant innovations that would significantly promote investment in Nigeria’s clean energy space.

Figure 10. Innovation for low-carbon energy to support energy transition in Nigeria.

The respondents further revealed that driving all financial innovations to motivate clean development was essential to achieving a low-carbon future. About 54.1% of the stakeholders identified tax holidays on renewable energy components such as batteries, solar panels, connecting cables, etc., as the most important among other financial instruments shown in Figure 11. About 51.5% of stakeholders also argued that low-interest rate loan by commercial banks to investors of clean energy projects was also a relevant financial tool.

Figure 11. Financial innovations to enhance a low-carbon energy transition.

Access to foreign exchange (FOREX) is also found to be a financial instrument that could facilitate the importation of RE components. No respondent perceived this innovation as less or least important, as shown in Figure 11; easy access to grants for investors is also considered an instrument to drive renewable energy penetration. Further, the outcomes in Figure 11 revealed that all financial tools or innovations were relevant but should be aligned with the necessary renewable energy intervention to augment the nation’s clean energy ambition for the near and far future.

This study also accessed stakeholders’ views on random issues ranging from price, research and development, liberalisation, partnership, energy efficiency and behaviour, tariffs, and social aspects of the energy transition. Figure 12 depicts these viewpoints. It can be observed from Figure 12 that investing in research and development, mainly in clean energy projects (59.4%), and incentives that encourage energy efficiency behaviour (57.9%) could expand the number of clean energy users. Prioritising these types of investments would undoubtedly foster the achievement of the needed low-carbon transition goals. Most of the respondents were neutral to the conclusion that an increase in electricity tariff from the grid would encourage low-carbon development. However, about 41.7% of respondents agreed that an increase in the price of fossil-fuel products (e.g. petrol, diesel) could promote low-carbon development and the much-needed energy transitions in the power sector. Meanwhile, few respondents, 31.6% and 15.8%, ‘disagreed’ and ‘strongly disagreed,’ respectively, that full engagement of private investors could slow down the energy transition process. This behaviour implies that the involvement of the private sector would be beneficial in enhancing future clean energy development in Nigeria.

Figure 12. Selected drivers of a low-carbon energy future.

In addition, respondents claimed that the current ease of doing business in Nigeria had delayed investment in clean energy. This Assertion could be due to issues related to insecurity in some parts of the country, the COVID 19 pandemic, and the current recovery from the economic recession. In conclusion, financial innovations such as incentives, subsidies, tax holidays, interest rates, FOREX, and access to grants are innovations considered alongside:

• investments in research and development,

• prices of energy efficiency appliances, and

• partnerships with relevant academic and research institutes.

The three points above may help facilitate the transition to clean energy. Therefore, it is worth noting that efforts geared towards achieving a clean energy future in Nigeria were interlocking and thus followed a causal relationship pattern.

4.4. Inferential analysis on energy transition

We conducted the inferential analysis of the study considering energy transition as the dependent variable and variables such as finance, motivation, technology, information, and innovation were independent variables. This implies that the inferential statistics has assessed the correlation between energy transitions and the listed independent variables. While considering the hypothesis, the following results were obtained and stated in sub-Section 4.5.1

1. Energy transition and technology

Person product correlation of energy transition and technology was found to be weak positive and statistically significant (r = 0.377, p < 0.001). Hence, H_a was supported. In other words, this shows that an advancement in technology will encourage the use of modern energy sources like natural gas and solar as against the use of traditional and unclean energy sources such as charcoal and firewood which are not environmentally health wise unfriendly. In addition, p value of 0.000 (p < 0.001) implied that we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that indeed, technology has a significant effect on energy transitions at one percent level of significance. This further reiterates that technology is a key factor to consider facilitating the transition from the use of unclean energy to cleaner energy sources.

1. Energy transition and motivation

The result revealed that the correlation coefficient of 0.321 implies that the association between energy transition and motivation is positive but weak. This further implies that if stakeholders are better motivated they would be willing to embrace clean energy and thus transitioning to cleaner energy future. Also, p value of 0.001 implied that we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. This further implied that motivation has a significant effect on energy transitions. Thus, we accept the alternative hypothesis.

b.	Energy transition and finance

Pearson correlation analysis of finance as independent variable and energy transition as dependent variable revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.466, this implies that association between energy transition and finance is positive, with moderate relationship. It implied that finance played a significant role in achieving energy transition. Moreover, p-value of 0.000 implied that we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that indeed, finance has a significant effect on energy transitions at one percent level of significance. This further reiterates that finance is a key factor to consider accelerating the transition from the use of unclean energy to cleaner energy sources.

c.	Energy transition and information

Correlation analysis between energy transition and information showed a correlation coefficient of 0.130, this implies that association between information and energy transition is positive but very weak. Also, the same analysis revealed p-value of 0.202, the p-value of way higher than the level of significant (to be precise at 0.01). This implies that we accept the null hypothesis and reject the alternative hypothesis. Further, it implied that there are no enough evidences that correlation exist between information about energy transition and the transition itself.

4.5. Qualitative analysis of survey

This subsection shows the themes and subsequently explains the outcome from the interviews of some selected stakeholders affiliated with the NPS. Authors identified four basic themes resulting from the analysis of the qualitative data, they include: (i) technology; (ii) incentives; (iii) advocacy; and (iv) clean energy behaviour. These four themes are in tandem with results obtained from the quantitative analysis. Interviewed stakeholders’ were willing to share their experiences and perspectives about the future of the Nigerian energy sector, especially in the power sector. Some unusual trends were observed in the qualitative outcomes which would require a causal approach in order to further simplify its complexities.

On this note, a causal loop diagram (CLD) and a wordcloud modelling approach were employed as a qualitative modelling approach so as to explore in detail the four key themes identified from the analysis of the quantitative data. Patterns were generated to enhance proper visualisation of the outcomes and how one variable could have a qualitative impact on the other. More so, the wordcloud thus, show consistency and frequency in the survey result. Figures 13 and 14 show the most frequent words used by respondents to describe their opinions about energy transitions. These views are illustrated in the wordcloud and the causal loop diagram in Figures 13 and 14, respectively. Figure 13, which represents the wordcloud relative size, elucidates the most frequent words used by respondents and most relevant to Nigeria’s energy transitions. Most respondents felt advocacy was the most pertinent instrument that could enhance future clean energy in Nigeria. However, renewable energy was mainly considered to be a paramount factor (especially solar photovoltaic). In contrast, energy efficiency and behaviour, Feed-in Tariffs (FiT), technology transfer, in that order, were also considered as necessary as clean energy drivers. Furthermore, respondents considered rebates, tax exemptions, and loans as some essential financial measures that could enhance Nigeria’s clean energy solution.

Figure 13. Wordcloud of frequent words used by respondents.

Figure 14. Causal loop diagram for national energy transitions.

Analysis of Figure 14 shows a causal relationship between interdependent variables of the energy transition, as reported earlier in Figure 13. This causal relationship illustrates the impacts of one variable over the other. Three reinforcing loops (R), i.e. technology, incentives, and behaviour, were represented. A balancing loop is always needed to bring things back to equilibrium. Therefore, according to the stakeholders, one balancing loop (B), i.e. advocacy, is paramount in achieving a clean and sustainable future in Nigeria and beyond. The reinforcing loops suggest that the system would continue to grow and stabilise the balancing loop. The balancing loop (advocacy) means that insecurity in some parts of the country is a significant threat that could thwart clean energy development. Meanwhile, polarities on the arrowhead suggest either an increase (+) or decrease (-) effect of each connecting variable.

Outcomes from the interviews revealed that advocacy in all its ramifications are relevant; the development of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency technologies and behaviour, among other parameters, is crucial to achieving a clean energy transition. Results from quantitative data fit perfectly and support all that we obtained from the qualitative survey.

A careful and a closer assessment of the CLD would suggest that energy transition in the power sector would be driven not only by technological innovations but also more from the appropriate policies. However, vices such as insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic should be put in proper check as these could negatively impact the favourable outcome of technology innovation in the country. More so, there is need for behavioural change among present and proposed users of modern energy, this would encourage the adoption of energy efficiency and energy conservation as an ancillary driver of clean energy transitions. Further, financial incentives if well deployed among users will have high tendency to motivate users and more adoption of clean technologies. The effective use of financial incentive is in resonance to result obtained from the quantitative analysis.

Finally, the qualitative analysis of the data revealed that advocating through encouragement, promoters, and clean energy campaigns across different strata of Nigerian citizens would increase their awareness and inform them of the need to utilise clean technologies, and, thus, support the clean transition paradigm. Quantitative analysis revealed that advocacy in the form of information had no significant effect on the energy transition. Authors contend that information might not have a direct effect on the energy transition. However, it would have to be specific, as in the qualitative study. In that study, advocacy was revealed to be a primary driver of the energy transition, but other factors have also been identified and attributed to advocacy.

5. Discussions

Developing a national low-carbon energy future requires a concerted effort of relevant affiliations in the energy sector. This study assessed the views, perspectives, and interests of relevant stakeholders in the Nigerian power sector towards developing a clean energy future. This section discusses outcomes from the results analysed by explaining insights gained from stakeholders’ opinions and views concerning low-carbon energy development in Nigeria. Despite the NPS undergoing several structural changes towards a low-carbon energy future, and with the nation’s low inclusion of renewable energy in its energy mix, the current study discusses issues concerning approaches through which the country could achieve pathways to a robust clean energy future.

The study argues that there exists a strong relationship between advocacy and academic curriculum for promoting low-carbon development. Energy efficiency and solar energy (importantly, energy efficiency standards and solar photovoltaic) would be the most significant technologies, with a greater expansion in the future compared to other clean energy technologies. It was also deduced from Oyedepo (2012) that to achieve a sustainable clean energy future, the full exploitation, promotion of renewable energy resources, and energy efficiency practices across all sectors would be required. This observation is in agreement with the findings in this current study. This work found that attention and investment should be directed to developing capacity in solar photovoltaic and related technologies. This outcome is in tandem with Sorman et al. (2020) on stakeholder’s preference on energy transitions that primary solar PV, among other clean energy technologies would be the most preferred energy technology in the near future.

Necessary structural changes to the Nigerian infrastructure system to enhance solar energy penetration and energy efficiency standards are critical to the sought energy transitions. This suggests that training in electricity management and supply from renewable energy (such as in solar photovoltaic) should be included in the ongoing Tertiary Institutions Entrepreneurship Scheme (TIES) by the central bank of Nigeria (CBN 2021). We also found that nuclear energy is likely to gain prominence in the far future. The utilisation of fossil-fuel sources, viz., natural gas, is the most preferred energy source in transitioning to cleaner energy. Accordingly, this could form a significant portion in the Nigeria's future energy low-carbon mix and unlock some economic opportunities for the country if properly harnessed.

The study also maintains that advocacy in the form of public information about energy-efficient products, such as energy-saving bulbs and caution on phantom load (removal of electric devices from power sources when not in use) in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, should be prioritised. Lindberg & Kammermann (2021) observed over Europe that advocacy could accelerate the European energy transition. Also, the United Nations identifies advocacy and policy for clean energy as an effective energy transitions strategy towards achieving SDGs 7 (UN 2021). The UN report affirms that policy framing is an effective action plan for clean energy. This institution also asserts that a holistic assessment must inform energy system planning, economic policymaking, and other policy; this step is necessary to ensure a just and inclusive energy transition at the regional, national, and local levels’ (UN 2021).

In contrast, this work, in line with Ugwuishiwu et al. (2019) affirm that coal utilisation alongside CCS might not happen soon due to low technical know-how, and resultant exponential increase in the price of electricity. According to the current technology status and future outlook of the CCS in developing countries, CCS development in emerging economies is uncertain. This development may not be adopted due to the novelty of the technology in the region (Kulichenko and Ereira 2011). Future energy should also be driven by an energy policy that makes clean energy affordable, reliable, and sustainable.

Furthermore, the study found that to enhance clean energy, the government should expand low-carbon technologies and efficient behaviour through prioritised financial innovations. These financial tools may include: tax holiday on renewable energy components, low-interest rates, easy access to finance, and incentives that will encourage energy efficiency behaviour. Similar study from Sorman et al. (2020) affirmed that revenue from environmental taxes is preferred among stakeholders to finance energy efficiency and renewable energy. Careful consideration of these tools would mean that the major bottleneck, i.e. finance needed to achieve a low-carbon energy future, has been removed. Further liberalisation of the power sector could also drive the required low-carbon future.

More so, current study revealed that variables such as technology, motivation, and finance are significant to achieving energy transition in the Nigerian power sector. Our result is in tandem with Shari et al (Epe et al. 2022). The study argues that finance and motivation are main drivers of energy transition in Nigeria, likewise, Hall et al. (2018), Temmes et al. (2021), IEA (2021) and Isah et al. (2023) identified finance as a significant driver to achieving low carbon development, also, the study argues that finance towards energy transition should look beyond affordability. More so, Armi et al., Temmes et al. (2021) and Isah et al. (2023) buttress the role of finance to energy transition revealing that small sizes of investments could increase the transaction cost of projects and financing. However, result from current study revealed that information might not play significant role in the transitioning processes to clean energy in Nigeria. However, the role of information do not have a direct effect on energy transition in developing nations due to weak infrastructure that could facilitate effective information capturing and dissemination among clean energy users. This implies that there could be insufficient information that enhance the development low-carbon utilisation in developing countries, especially to facilitate energy access (WHO, “the Energy Access Situation in Developing Countries” 2009).

6. Conclusions and policy implications

The study confirmed that careful interaction between core motivation, information on low-carbon development, technology preference, and financial innovations are areas that would determine low-carbon energy evolution in the Nigerian power sector.

This study, therefore, concludes that low-carbon development in Nigeria is feasible with the use of appropriate financing tools, technology development, and behaviour. Improved advocacy is also a significant means of building confidence in energy efficiency behaviour. This method could be driven by developing appropriate clean energy policies and collaborations with national and international partners. However, it is preferable to adopt a combination of clean technologies alongside investment in natural gas. This type of approach appreciates integrating a top-down and bottom-up way to planning a low-carbon energy future in Nigeria – a combination of supply (technologically driven) and demand-side management in national energy system planning (Ghersi 2015).

There is a need for further liberalisation of upstream and downstream of the power sector to enable the involvement of more relevant stakeholders in clean energy projects across the various stages of energy transitioning in Nigeria. Energy finance plays a crucial role in achieving a low-carbon future. However, no best financial innovation perfectly fits the energy transition, but specific innovation would be required to drive a particular technology or approach (be it bottom-up or top-down or hybrid). Hence, to reduce investors’ risk on investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, proper allocation of financial incentives could alleviate threats to investment in clean energy.

Additionally, further perspectives could consider developing scenario pathways to a low-carbon energy future from a stakeholder viewpoint through an analytical approach. Such an analytical approach could include optimisation and modelling the evolution of low-carbon energy transitions pathways, design low-carbon energy scenarios and system flexibility, which allow analytical assessment of intermittent renewable penetration and explore appropriate energy efficiency policies.

6.1. Policy implication on the evidence of low-carbon energy future

1. The nation should give active verbal support through advocacy on developing low-carbon energy across the four sectors: (i) residential, (ii) commercial, (iii) transportation, and (iv) industrial.

2. The nation should develop a sustainable clean energy policy and subsequently pass into law the clean energy agenda.

3. The nation should ensure the inclusion of energy transition studies into the curricula of educational institutions.

4. The nation should ensure that future clean energy will be affordable through subsidies and rebates, thus enhancing sustainability.

6.2. Policy implication on technology preferences

1. The nation should prioritise solar energy and speed up investment in renewable, i.e. solar photovoltaic and thermal, among other clean energy technologies, to fast track achieving SDG 7.

2. The nation should intensify its efforts towards the promotion of energy-efficient technologies and conservation.

3. The nation should enhance natural gas development (among other fossil fuel sources) for power generation, while nuclear should be considered a future driver of clean energy.

4. The nation should enforce measures that enhance decentralisation and smart energy systems.

6.3. Policy implication on financial innovations

1. The nation should consider tax holidays as a financial innovation on RE components, such as solar panels, batteries, the balance of the system (BOS), etc.,

2. The nation should enhance investment in research and development in clean energy.

3. The nation should encourage energy efficiency by incentivising energy management with the appropriate financial tools, e.g. low-income tax rates/tax exemption period on energy-efficient components.

Finally, based on the results, we recommend that assessing stakeholder perspectives and preferences on energy transition is germane to planning a low-carbon future. In addition, the study presents a sustainable approach to identifying critical drivers for relevant legislation to achieving policy insights that will compel a low-carbon development.

It was noticed that the current analysis had some caveats.

First, stakeholders’ perception of the Nigerian energy transition agenda was assessed as ways the proposed transition framework could be achieved. While stakeholders’ opinions and perceptions are important to achieving energy transition, it is worthwhile to mention that they could misestimate the transition process and the complexities involved. Consequently, future studies could assess its complex dynamics, which would examine how current energy challenges in Nigeria could influence the temporal scale of energy transitions. More so, the current study only considered stakeholder perspectives on transitioning to clean energy with a focus on the power sector. Though the power sector needs significant reform and transition to modern electricity, there are other sectors that need to be investigated such as transportation, clean cooking, and refineries.

Second, we explored stakeholders’ perspectives concerning four thematic trends, i.e. (i) energy transition and its motivation; (ii) information/knowledge about energy transitions; (iii) technology that could shape this transition; and (iv) perception due to finance. In reality, other thematic factors (e.g. market dynamics, socioeconomic, and techno-economic factors) can influence energy transition beyond the thematic areas considered here. This implies that there is room for further analysis of the Nigerian energy transition considering these thematic areas.

Third, due to the nature of the analysis (i.e. descriptive, inferential statistics, and casual loop analysis), outcomes should be considered as perception, opinion, and as such a qualitative analysis. In spite of the fact that the analysis considered was more likely to inform Nigeria about its future, a detailed numerical analysis would provide a more precise and quantitative evaluation. While acknowledging these limitations, our analysis has shown the overall stakeholders’ dynamics surrounding the Nigerian energy transition to clean energy and beyond. This is in addition to the existing evidence base for policymaking on the subject matter of our inquiry.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung through West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, (WASCAL), Niger.