Predictive models for social functioning in healthy young adults: A machine learning study integrating neuroanatomical, cognitive, and behavioral data

ABSTRACT

Poor social functioning is an emerging public health problem associated with physical and mental health consequences. Developing prognostic tools is critical to identify individuals at risk for poor social functioning and guide interventions. We aimed to inform prediction models of social functioning by evaluating models relying on bio-behavioral data using machine learning. With data from the Human Connectome Project Healthy Young Adult sample (age 22–35, N = 1,101), we built Support Vector Regression models to estimate social functioning from variable sets of brain morphology to behavior with increasing complexity: 1) brain-only model, 2) brain-cognition model, 3) cognition-behavioral model, and 4) combined brain-cognition-behavioral model. Predictive accuracy of each model was assessed and the importance of individual variables for model performance was determined. The combined and cognition-behavioral models significantly predicted social functioning, whereas the brain-only and brain-cognition models did not. Negative affect, psychological wellbeing, extraversion, withdrawal, and cortical thickness of the rostral middle-frontal and superior-temporal regions were the most important predictors in the combined model. Results demonstrate that social functioning can be accurately predicted using machine learning methods. Behavioral markers may be more significant predictors of social functioning than brain measures for healthy young adults and may represent important leverage points for preventative intervention.

KEYWORDS:

• Human Connectome Project
• functional outcome
• artificial intelligence
• multivariate pattern analysis
• support vector regression
• neuroimaging biomakers

Acknowledgement

Data were provided by the Human Connectome Project, WU-Minn Consortium (Principal Investigators: David Van Essen and Kamil Ugurbil; 1U54MH091657) funded by the 16 NIH Institutes and Centers that support the NIH Blueprint for Neuroscience Research; and by the McDonnell Center for Systems Neuroscience at Washington University.

Disclosure statement

Dr. Vinogradov serves on the Scientific Advisory Board for Psyberguide. She also has scientific collaborations with scientists at PositScience, Inc. Ms. Miley and Drs. Michalowski, Yu, Leng, and McMorris have no conflicts of interest to report.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/17470919.2022.2132285

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by National Institute of Mental Health Grants 1F31MH124278 (KM), 1R01MH120589-01 and 5P50MH119569-02, and the National Institutes of Health’s National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, Grants TL1R002493 and UL1TR002494 (KM, EL).