979
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Stability analysis of an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with sexual transmission in a patchy environment

, &
Article: 2227216 | Received 15 Jul 2022, Accepted 14 Jun 2023, Published online: 28 Jun 2023

ABSTRACT

A multi-patch HIV/AIDS model with heterosexual transmission is formulated to investigate the impact of population migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. We derive the basic reproduction number R0 and prove that if R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If R0>1 and certain conditions are satisfied, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. We apply the model to two patches and conduct numerical simulations. If HIV/AIDS becomes extinct in each patch when two patches are isolated, the disease remains extinct in two patches when the population migration occurs; if HIV/AIDS spreads in each patch when two patches are isolated, the disease remains persistent in two patches when the population migration occurs; if the disease disappears in one patch and spreads in the other patch when they are isolated, the disease can spread or disappear in two patches if migration rates of individuals are suitably chosen.

MATHEMATICS SUBJECT CLASSIFICATIONS:

1. Introduction

HIV/AIDS remains one of the world's most significant public health challenges [Citation1]. AIDS is mainly transmitted through three ways: sexual contact, blood and mother and infant, and sexual transmission is the most important way to spread AIDS in China. Since the discovery of HIV in the early 1980s, the disease has spread in successive waves to most regions around the global [Citation37]. More than 95% of the newly diagnosed HIV infected people in China are sexually transmitted, and about 70% of them are heterosexual transmission [Citation4]. With the growth of travel among cities and countries, new infectious diseases are developing regionally and globally much faster than before [Citation19]. In the process of population migration, HIV/AIDS can easily spread from one region to another.

Many disease transmission models in multiple patches environment have been proposed and investigated. See , for example [Citation6, Citation7]. Li et al. [Citation22] established the SIR model of population migration in n patches, analysed the stability of disease-free equilibrium, and proved endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable by constructing Lyapunov function and combining graph theory. Guo et al. [Citation16] also studied global stability of the endemic equilibrium by constructing Lyapunov function and combining graph theory. Arino et al. [Citation5] established an epidemic model of n cities to study the impact of human movement between cities on disease transmission. Wang et al. [Citation33] established an SIS model of n patches, which assumes that the susceptible individuals and infected individuals of each patch have the same diffusion rate. Under the same assumptions, Jin et al. [Citation18] further proved the uniqueness and global stability of endemic equilibrium by using monotone dynamic system theory. Wang et al. [Citation34] established a multi-patch SEIQR model to discuss the impact of entry–exit inspection on disease control. Gao et al. [Citation15] established a multi-patch SIS model to study the impact of media reports and human movement on disease transmission, and conducted numerical simulation on the two patches. The results show that when the two patches are isolated, the disease disappears in the first patch and prevails in the second patch. When the two patches are connected by travel, the disease may extinct in both patches. Cosner et al. [Citation12] established a patch model to study the impact of human movement on media transmission and took two patches as examples for numerical simulation. Mccormack et al. [Citation25] studied the multi-patch deterministic SIS model and random SIR model for wild animal diseases and took three patches as examples to conduct numerical simulation to study the influence of three different movement rates on disease transmission. Gao et al. [Citation14] established the SIS epidemic model for n patches with a standard incidence rate. Finally, two patches are taken as examples for numerical simulation. Zhang et al. [Citation35] established a two-patch model for the spread of West Nile virus. Wang et al. [Citation32] proposed an epidemic model to describe the dynamics of disease spread between two patches due to population dispersal. As far as we know, few people have established a model of HIV/AIDS transmission in a patchy environment.

In the research on HIV/AIDS, Bacaër et al. [Citation8] proposed an HIV/AIDS epidemic model, considering both injecting drug use and heterosexual transmission and give out some numerical results. Zhao et al. [Citation37] established a model of AIDS transmission including three age groups, analysed the global dynamics of the system and further demonstrated the difference of AIDS transmission in different age groups by numerical simulation. Cai et al. [Citation10] established an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment. However, there have been relatively few studies linking HIV/AIDS to patches. Kheiri et al. [Citation20] formulated a fractional order model for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in a patchy environment to investigate the effect of human movement on the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic among patches. The model was established in combination with Euler model and adopted bilinear incidence. The basic reproduction number R0 was derived and numerical simulation is done in two patches. The simulation showed that the disease died out in patch 2 and became endemic in patch 1 when there was no migration between two patches, that is, they are isolated. The disease became endemic in both patches when there was migration between two patches. When two sexes are considered, there is still less research on the impact of population migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS.

Cosner et al. [Citation12] and Sattenspiel et al. [Citation27] introduced two models of human movement, including Euler movement model and Lagrange movement model. The former only considers the individuals' migration from one place to another without tracking the individuals ' behaviour. It considers that the individuals will not return after migration. After reaching a place, the individuals have no memory of the previous position. The latter, in contrast, tracks individuals ' behaviour, which considers the individuals temporary travel to another location and return to the previous location. Citron et al. [Citation11] further introduced the two models and pointed out that the flow model is the Euler movement model and the simple trip model is the Lagrangian movement model. Examples are given to illustrate how to combine the two models with the research problems. Combined with the Euler movement model, our goal is establish a patch model of HIV/AIDS to study the impact of population migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS among regions.

The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In the next section, combined with the Euler movement model, we develop a new HIV/AIDS model with heterosexual transmission and constant recruitment rate in a patchy environment. In Section 3, we derive the basic reproduction number R0 which serves as a threshold for the disease extinction and persistence. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is proved. When certain conditions are satisfied, the global stability of the endemic equilibrium is also proved. In Section 4, we apply the model to two patches. In Section 5, we conduct numerical simulations using the data from Beijing City and Yunnan Province in China. First, we present time series diagrams under different conditions. Next, we use contour plots to show the relationship between R0 and migration rates. Finally, we make a comparison between no migration and migration in two patches. In Section 6, we conduct sensitivity analysis of R0. In Section 7, we give a brief conclusion.

2. Model formulation

In this section, we propose a susceptible-infected-AIDS (SIA) model with standard incidence for the heterosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS with population migration between patches. A patch can be interpreted as a city, a province or a country, etc. Let n be the total number of patches. In patch i, the population is divided into six subclasses: the susceptible female, the susceptible male, the infective female (no clinical symptoms of AIDS), the infective male, the AIDS female and the AIDS male whose numbers are denoted by Sif(t),Sim(t),Iif(t),Iim(t),Aif(t),Aim(t) respectively. Susceptible individuals are transformed into infected individuals through contact with heterosexual infected individuals. The total population in patch i at time t is given by Ni(t)=Sif(t)+Sim(t)+Iif(t)+Iim(t)+Aif(t)+Aim(t). The flow diagram of HIV/AIDS transmission in patch i is illustrated in Figure .

We assume that susceptible individuals become infected individuals through contact with heterosexual infected individuals and they have the same transmission rate. Moreover, we assume that susceptible individuals, infected individuals and AIDS individuals of each patch have the same migration rate. Based on these assumptions, a multi-patch SIA epidemic model with standard incidence is expressed in terms of the following system of ordinary differential equations: (1) dSifdt=εiΛiβiSifIimNimμifSif+j=1,jin(mijSjfmjiSif),dIifdt=βiSifIimNim(μif+γif)Iif+j=1,jin(mijIjfmjiIif),dAifdt=γifIif(μif+dif)Aif+j=1,jin(mijAjfmjiAif),dSimdt=(1εi)ΛiβiSimIifNifμimSim+j=1,jin(mijSjmmjiSim),dIimdt=βiSimIifNif(μim+γim)Iim+j=1,jin(mijIjmmjiIim),dAimdt=γimIim(μim+dim)Aim+j=1,jin(mijAjmmjiAim),(1) where i=1,2,,n, Nif=Sif+Iif+Aif, Nim=Sim+Iim+Aim. Then Ni(t)=Nif(t)+Nim(t). N(t) is the total population over all patches at time t, then N(t)=i=1nNi(t). The parameters in this model are all non-negative constants. We summarize the state variables and the model parameters in Table . The migration matrix M=(mij) is not required to be symmetric, namely, the migration rate from the patch i to j may not be the same as that from the patch j to i, 0mij,mji1, where, i,j=1,2,,n. Here the movement of humans between patches is governed by the Euler approach [Citation11], that is, humans change their residences when they move from one patch to another. Furthermore, it is assumed that all parameters in the model are strictly positive with the exception of the migration rates.

Figure 1. The flow diagram of HIV/AIDS transmission in patch i.

Figure 1. The flow diagram of HIV/AIDS transmission in patch i.

The initial conditions of system (Equation1) is given by Sif0,Sim0,Iif0,Iim0,Aif0,Aim0,i=1,2,,n.

Table 1. State variables and parameters interpretation of system (Equation1).

Theorem 2.1

Solutions of system (Equation1) with nonnegative initial conditions uniquely exist and remain nonnegative for all time t0. Moreover, the system (Equation1) is point dissipative.

Proof.

It is simple to verify that the vector field defined by the right-hand side of (Equation1) is locally Lipschitz on R+6n, so there exists a unique solution of system (Equation1) t0. Next, we prove the nonnegativity of the solution. By the first equation (Equation1), we have dSifdt>εiΛiβiSifIimNimμifSifmiSif,where mi=j=1,jinmji.Then dSifdt+βiSifIimNim+μifSif+miSif>εiΛi.Let λ(t)=βiIim(t)Nim(t), then dSif(t)dte0tλ(u)du+(μif+mi)t+Sif(t)(λ(t)+μif+mi)e0tλ(u)du+(μif+mi)t>εiΛie0tλ(u)du+(μif+mi)t,namely ddt[Sif(t)e0tλ(u)du+(μif+mi)t]>εiΛie0tλ(u)du+(μif+mi)t.Then Sif(t)e0tλ(u)du+(μif+mi)tSif(0)>0tεiΛie0uλ(v)dv+(μif+mi)udu.Hence, we have Sif(t)=Sif(0)e0tλ(u)du+(μif+mi)t+e0tλ(u)du+(μif+mi)t×0tεiΛie0uλ(v)dv+(μif+mi)udu0.Similarly, Iif(t)0,Aif(t)0,Sim(t)0,Iim(t)0,Aim(t)0.

Let μ=min{μ1f,μ2f,,μnf,μ1m,μ2m,,μnm} and Λ¯=i=1nΛi. The total population over all patches, denoted by N=i=1nNi, satisfies dNdt=i=1n(ΛiμifNifμimNimdifAifdimAim)Λ¯μN,which implies that limtsupNΛ¯μ. Thus the system (Equation1) is point dissipative.

Let A=[μ1f+j1mj1m12m1nm21μ2f+j2mj2m2nmn1mn2μnf+jnmjn],B=[μ1m+j1mj1m12m1nm21μ2m+j2mj2m2nmn1mn2μnm+jnmjn],since all off-diagonal entries of A and B are non-positive, it follows from the first and the forth equations of (Equation1) that dSifdtεiΛiμifSif+j=1,jin(mijSjfmjiSif)=(ASf0ASf)i0,dSimdt(1εi)ΛiμimSim+j=1,jin(mijSjmmjiSim)=(ASm0ASm)i0,when Sif=Sif0,SjfSjf0,Sim=Sim0,SjmSjm0 for ji. Thus the feasible region of (Equation1) can be chosen as X={S1f,I1f,A1f,,Snf,Inf,Anf,S1m,I1m,A1m,,Snm,Inm,AnmR+6n|NΛ¯μ,SifSif0,SimSim0,1in}.It can be verified that X is positively invariant with respect to (Equation1).

3. Mathematical analysis

In this section, we first study the existence and uniqueness of the disease-free equilibrium for (Equation1) and calculate the basic reproduction number R0. Then, we study the stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Finally, we study the existence, uniqueness and stability of the endemic equilibrium.

3.1. Disease-free equilibrium and the basic reproduction number

To find the disease-free equilibrium of (Equation1), we consider the following linear system: ASf=εΛ,BSm=(1ε)Λ,where Sf=(S1f,S2f,,Snf)T, Sm=(S1m,S2m,,Snm)T, ε=diag(ε1,ε2,,εn), Λ=(Λ1,Λ2,,Λn)T. Since all off-diagonal entries of A are non-positive and the sum of the entries in each column of A is positive, so A is a nonsingular M-matrix and A10 [Citation9]. Hence, linear system ASf=εΛ has a unique positive solution Sf0=(S1f0,S2f0,,Snf0)T=A1εΛ>0. Mathematically, if Iif=0 for all i at a steady state, then by summing the third equation of (Equation1) up from 1 to n, we have i=1n(μif+dif)Aif+i=1nj=1n(mijAjfmjiAif)=0.Hence, i=1n(μif+dif)Aif=0. This implies Aif=0 for i=1,2,,n. In the same way, linear system BSm=(1ε)Λ has also a unique positive solution Sm0=(S1m0,S2m0,,Snm0)T=B1(1ε)Λ>0 and Aim=0 for i=1,2,,n. As a consequence, system (Equation1) has a unique disease-free equilibrium E0=(S1f0,0,0,S1m0,0,0,,Snf0,0,0,Snm0,0,0).

To derive the basic reproduction number for (Equation1), we use the next generation operator approach as described by Diekmann [Citation13] and van den Driessche and Watmough [Citation31]. Let x=(I1f,,Inf,I1m,,Inm,A1f,,Anf,A1m,,Anm),then system (Equation1) can be written as dxdt=F(x)V(x),where F(x)=(β1S1fI1mN1m,,βnSnfInmNnm,β1S1mI1fN1f,,βnSnmInfNnf,0,,0,0,,0)T,V(x)=[(μ1f+γ1f+j1mj1)I1fj1m1jIjf(μnf+γnf+jnmjn)InfjnmnjIjf(μ1m+γ1m+j1mj1)I1mj1m1jIjm(μnm+γnm+jnmjn)InmjnmnjIjmγ1fI1f+(μ1f+d1f+j1mj1)A1fj1m1jAjfγnfI1f+(μnf+dnf+jnmjn)AnfjnmnjAjfγ1mI1m+(μ1m+d1m+j1mj1)A1mj1m1jAjmγnmI1m+(μnm+dnm+jnmjn)AnmjnmnjAjm].Then the new infection and transition matrices are, respectively, given by F=[0F1200F2100000000000],V=[V110000V2200V310V3300V420V44],where F12=diag(β1S1f0S1m0,β2S2f0S2m0,,βnSnf0Snm0),F21=diag(β1S1m0S1f0,β2S2m0S2f0,,βnSnm0Snf0),V11=[μ1f+γ1f+j1mj1m12m1nm21μ2f+γ2f+j2mj2m2nmn1mn2μnf+γnf+jnmjn],V22=[μ1m+γ1m+j1mj1m12m1nm21μ2m+γ2m+j2mj2m2nmn1mn2μnm+γnm+jnmjn],V33=[μ1f+d1f+j1mj1m12m1nm21μ2f+d2f+j2mj2m2nmn1mn2μnf+dnf+jnmjn],V44=[μ1m+d1m+j1mj1m12m1nm21μ2m+d2m+j2mj2m2nmn1mn2μnm+dnm+jnmjn],

and V31=diag(γ1f,γ2f,,γnf),V42=diag(γ1m,γ2m,,γnm).Since Vii, for i = 1, 2, 3, 4, is a strictly diagonally dominant matrix, by the Gershgorin circle theorem, the real parts of its eigenvalues are positive and therefore Vii1 exists. So the inverse of V exists and equals V1=[V1110000V22100V331V31V1110V33100V441V42V2210V441].Thus the next generation matrix of system (Equation1) is FV1=[0F12V22100F21V11100000000000].By calculating (FV1)2, we find the basic reproduction number R0=ρ(F12V221F21V111),where ρ represents the spectral radius of the matrix.

The basic reproduction number for the ith patch in isolation (i.e. there is no migration between patch i and other patches) is given by R0(i)=βi(μif+γif)(μim+γim).

3.2. Global stability of the disease-free equilibrium

Following Theorem 2 of [Citation31], we have the following result on the local stability of E0. FV=[V11F1200F21V2200V310V3300V420V44].Define s(FV)=max{Reλ:λ is an eigenvalue of FV}, so s(FV) is a simple eigenvalue of FV with a positive eigenvector [Citation28]. By Theorem 2 of van den Driessche and Watmough [Citation31], there hold two equivalences: s(FV)>0R0>1,s(FV)<0R0<1.

Theorem 3.1

The disease-free equilibrium E0 of system (Equation1) is locally asymptotically stable if R0<1 and unstable if R0>1.

Proof.

To prove the local stability of disease-free equilibrium E0 of system (Equation1), we check the hypotheses (A1)–(A5) in [Citation31]. Hypotheses (A1)–(A4) are easily verified, while (A5) is satisfied if all eigenvalues of the 6n×6n matrix JE0=[FV0J3J4] have negative real parts, where J3=[0F12F210],J4=[A00B].The eigenvalues of JE0 are the eigenvalues of FV and J4. The matrices A and B are two nonsingular M-matrices. Thus A and B have all eigenvalues with negative real parts, so J4 has all eigenvalues with negative real parts. Consequently, the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium depends only on eigenvalues of FV. Thus if R0<1, then s(FV)<0 and s(JE0)<0, the disease-free equilibrium E0 of system (Equation1) is locally asymptotically stable.

Theorem 3.2

The disease-free equilibrium E0 of system (Equation1) is globally asymptotically stable if R0<1.

Proof.

Since SifNif, SimNim, thus (2) dIifdtβiSif0Sim0Iim(μif+γif)Iif+j=1n(mijIjfmjiIif),dIimdtβiSim0Sif0Iif(μim+γim)Iim+j=1n(mijIjmmjiIim),dAifdt=γifIif(μif+dif)Aif+j=1n(mijAjfmjiAif),dAimdt=γimIim(μim+dim)Aim+j=1n(mijAjmmjiAim).(2) Consider the following auxiliary system: (3) dI¯ifdt=βiSif0Sim0I¯im(μif+γif)I¯if+j=1n(mijI¯jfmjiI¯if),dI¯imdt=βiSim0Sif0I¯if(μim+γim)I¯im+j=1n(mijI¯jmmjiI¯im),dA¯ifdt=γifI¯if(μif+dif)A¯if+j=1n(mijA¯jfmjiA¯if),dA¯imdt=γimI¯im(μim+dim)A¯im+j=1n(mijA¯jmmjiA¯im).(3) The right side has the coefficient matrix FV. Since R0<1 if and only if s(FV)<0. By the Perron Frobenius theorem, all eigenvalues of the matrix FV have negative real parts when s(FV)<0. Therefore it has (I¯1f,,I¯nf,I¯1m,,I¯nm,A¯1f,,A¯nf,A¯1m,,A¯nm)(0,,0,0,,0,0,,0,0,,0)as t. Using the comparison principle of Smith and Waltman, namely Theorem B.1[Citation28], we know that (I1f,,Inf,I1m,,Inm,A1f,,Anf,A1m,,Anm)(0,,0,0,,0,0,,0,0,,0)as t. So, (Equation1) is an asymptotically autonomous system with limit affine system dSifdt=εiΛi(μif+j=1,jinmji)Sif+j=1,jinmijSjf,dSimdt=(1εi)Λi(μim+j=1,jinmji)Sim+j=1,jinmijSjm.By the theory of asymptotic autonomous system of Thieme [Citation29], it is also known that (S1f,,Snf,S1m,,Snm)(S1f0,,Snf0,S1m0,,Snm0), t. So E0 is globally attractive when R0<1. It follows that the disease-free equilibrium E0 of system (Equation1) is globally asymptotically stable when R0<1.

3.3. The uniform persistence of system (1)

Using the techniques of persistence theory [Citation36], we can show the uniform persistence of the disease and the existence of at least one endemic equilibrium when R0>1. Thus the basic reproduction number R0 is a threshold parameter of the disease dynamics. The proof below is analogous to those of Theorem 2.3 in Wang and Zhao [Citation33] and Theorem 3.7 in Gao and Ruan [Citation15].

Theorem 3.3

For system (Equation1), assume that M=(mij) is irreducible, then if R0>1, the disease is uniformly persistent, i.e. there exists a constant k>0, such that every solution Φt(x0)=(S1f(t),,Snf(t),S1m(t),,Snm(t), I1f(t),,Inf(t),I1m(t),, Inm(t),A1f(t),,Anf(t),A1m(t),,Anm(t)) of system (Equation1) with x0=(S1f(0),, Snf(0)S1m(0),,Snm(0), I1f(0),,Inf(0),I1m(0), ,Inm(0),A1f(0),,Anf(0),A1m(0),,Anm(0))X0 satisfies limtinf(I1f(t),,Inf(t),I1m(t),,Inm(t),A1f(t),,Anf(t),A1m(t),,Anm(t))>(k,,k)1×4n,and (Equation1) admits at least one endemic equilibrium.

Proof.

Let X={(S1f,,Snf,S1m,,Snm,I1f,,Inf,I1m,,Inm,A1f,,Anf,A1m,,Anm):Sif0,Sim0,Iif0,Iim0,Aif0,Aim0,i=1,2,,n},X0={(S1f,,Snf,S1m,,Snm,I1f,,Inf,I1m,,Inm,A1f,,Anf,A1m,,Anm)X:Iif>0,Iim>0,Aif>0,Aim>0,i=1,2,,n},X0=XX0={(S1f,,Snf,S1m,,Snm,I1f,,Inf,I1m,,Inm,A1f,,Anf,A1m,,Anm)X:Iif=0,Iim=0,Aif=0,Aim=0,forsomei{1,2,,n}}.

It suffices to prove that X0 repels uniformly the solutions of system (Equation1) in X0. Clearly, X0 is relatively closed in X. It is immediate that X and X0 are positively invariant. Theorem 2.1 implies that system (Equation1) is point dissipative.

Denote Mα={x0X0:Φt(x0)X0fort0,i=1,2,,n},D={x0X:Iif=0,Iim=0,Aif=0,Aim=0,i=1,2,,n}. Obviously, DMα. On the other hand, we have I1f(0)++Inf(0)+I1m(0)++Inm(0)+A1f(0)++Anf(0)+A1m(0)++Anm(0)>0 for any x0X0D. By the irreducibility of the migration matrix M=(mij)n×n, we know that Φt(x0)X0 for all t>0. Therefore, x0Mα and MαD, which implies that Mα=D.

The disease-free equilibrium E0 is the unique equilibrium in Mα. Let Ws(E0) be the stable manifold of E0. We now show that Ws(E0)X0= when R0>1.

Let Mε=FVϵF. Since s(FV)>0 if and only if R0>1, there is an ϵ1>0 such that s(Mϵ)>0 for ϵ[0,ϵ1]. Choose η small enough such that Sif(0)Nim(0)Sif0Sim0ϵ1 and Sim(0)Nif(0)Sim0Sif0ϵ1 for i=1,2,,n, x0E0∥≤η.

We now show that limtsupx0E0∥>η for x0X0, where is the usual Euclidean norm. Suppose not, then x0E0∥≤η for t0 and dIifdt(βiSif0Sim0ϵ1)Iim(μif+γif+jimji)Iif+jimijIjf,dIimdt(βiSim0Sif0ϵ1)Iif(μim+γim+jimji)Iim+jimijIjm,dAifdt=γifIif(μif+dif+jimji)Aif+jimijAjf,dAimdt=γimIim(μim+dim+jimji)Aim+jimijAjm.Consider an auxiliary system dudt=Mϵ1u.Note that Mϵ1 has a positive eigenvalue s(Mϵ1) associated to a positive eigenvector. By the comparison theorem, we have limt(Iif(t),Iim(t),Aif(t),Aim(t))=(,,,),i=1,2,,n.The above conclusions contradict the assumptions. Since E0 is globally stable in Mα, it follows that E0 is an isolated invariant set and Ws(E0)X0=. By Theorem 4.6 in Thieme [Citation30], system (Equation1) is uniformly persistent with respect to (X0,X0).

3.4. Uniqueness and global stability of the endemic equilibrium

In this section, if R0>1, we derive a sufficient condition that the endemic equilibrium is unique and globally asymptotically stable. Our proof utilizes the graph-theoretical approach developed in [Citation16, Citation17, Citation23].

Theorem 3.4

Assume that M=(mij) is irreducible, and there exist ηj1,ηj2>0 such that Sjf=ηj1Ijf,Sjm=ηj2Ijm for all 1i,jn, then the endemic equilibrium E of system (Equation1) is unique and globally asymptotically stable in int(X) when R0>1.

The proof process of Theorem 3.4, see Appendix 1.

4. Application to two patches

In the case where the patch number n is 2, (Equation1) reduces to (4) dS1fdt=ε1Λ1β1S1fI1mN1mμ1fS1f+m12S2fm21S1f,dI1fdt=β1S1fI1mN1m(μ1f+γ1f)I1f+m12I2fm21I1f,dA1fdt=γ1fI1f(μ1f+d1f)A1f+m12A2fm21A1f,dS1mdt=(1ε1)Λ1β1S1mI1fN1fμ1mS1m+m12S2mm21S1m,dI1mdt=β1S1mI1fN1f(μ1m+γ1m)I1m+m12I2mm21I1m,dA1mdt=γ1mI1m(μ1m+d1m)A1m+m12A2mm21A1m,dS2fdt=ε2Λ2β2S2fI2mN2mμ2fS2f+m21S1fm12S2f,dI2fdt=β2S2fI2mN2m(μ2f+γ2f)I2f+m21I1fm12I2f,dA2fdt=γ2fI2f(μ2f+d2f)A2f+m21A1fm12A2f,dS2mdt=(1ε2)Λ2β2S2mI2fN2fμ2mS2m+m21S1mm12S2m,dI2mdt=β2S2mI2fN2f(μ2m+γ2m)I2m+m21I1mm12I2m,dA2mdt=γ2mI2m(μ2m+d2m)A2m+m21A1mm12A2m,(4) where the parameters m21 and m12 denote, respectively, the migration rates from patches 1 to 2 and from patches 2 to 1.

If R0<1, the unique disease-free equilibrium of (Equation4) is E0=(S1f0,0,0,S1m0,0,0,S2f0,0,0,S2m0,0,0),where S1f0=(μ2f+m12)ε1Λ1+m12ε2Λ2(μ1f+m21)(μ2f+m12)m12m21,S2f0=(μ1f+m21)ε2Λ2+m21ε1Λ1(μ1f+m21)(μ2f+m12)m12m21,S1m0=(μ2m+m12)(1ε1)Λ1+m12(1ε2)Λ2(μ1m+m21)(μ2m+m12)m12m21,S2m0=(μ1m+m21)(1ε2)Λ2+m21(1ε1)Λ1(μ1m+m21)(μ2m+m12)m12m21.Now F12V221F21V111 becomes [abcd], where a=1M1M2[β12(μ2f+γ2f+m12)(μ2m+γ2m+m12)+β1β2m12m21S1f0S2m0S1m0S2f0],b=1M1M2[β12m12(μ2m+γ2m+m12)+β1β2m12(μ1f+γ1f+m21)S1f0S2m0S1m0S2f0],c=1M1M2[β1β2m21(μ2f+γ2f+m12)S1m0S2f0S1f0S2m0+β22m21(μ1m+γ1m+m21)],d=1M1M2[β1β2m12m21S1m0S2f0S1f0S2m0+β22(μ1f+γ1f+m21)(μ1m+γ1m+m21)],where M1=(μ1f+γ1f+m21)(μ2f+γ2f+m12)m12m21,M2=(μ1m+γ1m+m21)(μ2m+γ2m+m12)m12m21.Its characteristic equation is λ2(a+d)λ+adbc=0, we have λ1=a+d+(a+d)24(adbc)2,λ2=a+d(a+d)24(adbc)2.It is easy to see that R0=ρ(F12V221F21V111)=λ1.

When the relationship between m21 and m12 satisfies bcad + a + d−1 = 0, R0=1.

The basic reproduction number for the ith patch in isolation (i.e. there is no migration between patch i and other patches) is given by R0(1)=β1(μ1f+γ1f)(μ1m+γ1m),R0(2)=β2(μ2f+γ2f)(μ2m+γ2m).It is well known that R0(1) is a reproduction number of the disease in the first patch and R0(2) is a reproduction number of the disease in the second patch.

If R0>1, and there exist η11,η21,η12,η22>0 such that S1f=η11I1f,S2f=η21I2f,S1m=η12I1m and S2m=η22I2m, the unique endemic equilibrium of (Equation4) is E=(S1f,I1f,A1f,S1m,I1m,A1m,S2f,I2f,A2f,S2m,I2m,A2m),where I1f=qf[(μ2f+m12)ε1Λ1+m12ε2Λ2]+m12γ2f[m21ε1Λ1+(μ1f+m21)ε2Λ2]m21m12γ1fγ2fpfqf,I1m=qm[(μ2m+m12)(1ε1)Λ1+m12(1ε2)Λ2]+m12γ2m[m21(1ε1)Λ1+(μ1m+m21)(1ε2)Λ2]m21m12γ1mγ2mpmqm,I2f=m21γ1f[(μ2f+m12)ε1Λ1+m12ε2Λ2]+pf[m21ε1Λ1+(μ1f+m21)ε2Λ2]m21m12γ1fγ2fpfqf,I2m=m21γ1m[(μ2m+m12)(1ε1)Λ1+m12(1ε2)Λ2]+pm[m21(1ε1)Λ1+(μ1m+m21)(1ε2)Λ2]m21m12γ1mγ2mpmqm,S1f=(μ2f+m12)ε1Λ1+m12ε2Λ2+[m21m12(μ2f+m12)(μ1f+γ1f+m21)]I1fm12γ2fI2f(μ1f+m21)(μ2f+m12)m21m12,S1m=(μ2m+m12)(1ε1)Λ1+m12(1ε2)Λ2+[m21m12(μ2m+m12)(μ1m+γ1m+m21)]I1mm12γ2mI2m(μ1m+m21)(μ2m+m12)m21m12,S2f=m21ε1Λ1+(μ1f+m21)ε2Λ2m21γ1fI1f+[m21m12(μ1f+m21)(μ2f+γ2f+m12)]I2f(μ1f+m21)(μ2f+m12)m21m12,S2m=m21(1ε1)Λ1+(μ1m+m21)(1ε2)Λ2m21γ1mI1m+[m21m12(μ1m+m21)(μ2m+γ2m+m12)]I2m(μ1m+m21)(μ2m+m12)m21m12,A1f=(μ2f+d2f+m12)γ1fI1f+m12γ2fI2f(μ1f+d1f+m21)(μ2f+d2f+m12)m21m12,A1m=(μ2m+d2m+m12)γ1mI1m+m12γ2mI2m(μ1m+d1m+m21)(μ2m+d2m+m12)m21m12,A2f=m21γ1fI1f+(μ1f+d1f+m21)γ2fI2f(μ1f+d1f+m21)(μ2f+d2f+m12)m21m12,A2m=m21γ1mI1m+(μ1m+d1m+m21)γ2mI2m(μ1m+d1m+m21)(μ2m+d2m+m12)m21m12,

where pf=(η11+1)m21m12(μ2f+m12)(μ1f+γ1f+m21)η11(μ1f+m21)(μ2f+m12),qf=(η21+1)m21m12(μ1f+m21)(μ2f+γ2f+m12)η21(μ1f+m21)(μ2f+m12),pm=(η12+1)m21m12(μ2m+m12)(μ1m+γ1m+m21)η12(μ1m+m21)(μ2m+m12),qm=(η22+1)m21m12(μ1m+m21)(μ2m+γ2m+m12)η22(μ1m+m21)(μ2m+m12).

5. Numerical simulations

To have a more comprehensive understanding of the spread of HIV/AIDS between patches, we conduct numerical simulations for different situations to present various possible results. We introduce it from three aspects: in Section 5.1, we present time series diagrams under different conditions; in Section 5.2, we use contour plots to show the relationship between R0 and migration rates; in Section 5.3, we make a comparison between no migration and migration.

We consider a particular case of system (Equation1) with two patches. We study the impact of population migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic with heterosexual transmission. At the same time, we also verify the theoretical analysis. We choose the data from the Beijing City and Yunnan Province, Beijing City is regarded as the first patch, Yunnan Province is regarded as the second patch. We choose 2017 as the initial time. The initial population size is given as follows: S1f0=10704298,I1f0=538A1f0=164S1m0=11236585I1m0=1833A1m0=582S2f0=23092948I2f0=1804A2f0=1248S2m0=24898433I2m0=6142A2m0=4425 respectively. The data is from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention [Citation4], Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics [Citation2] and Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics [Citation3]. Given that women generally live longer than men and men have higher death rates due to AIDS, we choose μ1f=0.0120,μ1m=0.0127,μ2f=0.0122,μ2m=0.0130,d1f=0.045,d1m=0.049,d2f=0.333,d2m=0.369, and βi is selected from the range of 0.011−0.95 [Citation26]. For the transfer rates from stage Iif to Aif and from stage Iim to Aim in the two regions, we select the populations of I (the infected) and A (the AIDS) in the two regions from 2015 to 2017 from the China Center for Disease Control and prevention to calculate their average, consider that men have higher transfer rates from stage I to A than women, we choose γ1f=0.30,γ1m=0.32,γ2f=0.71,γ2m=0.73. For convenience, these model parameters values in numerical simulations are given in Table , with a time scale of a year.

Table 2. Model parameter values in numerical simulations.

5.1. Time series diagrams

To fully understand the spread of disease between patches, we will present time series diagrams under different conditions. For system (Equation1), we present some cases where the disease dies out or persists in each isolated patch but becomes endemic or extinct, respectively, when there are suitable migration rates between them. We simulate the changes of susceptible, infected and AIDS individuals over time in two patches in each case. R0(1) and R0(2) are the basic reproduction numbers for both patches in isolation. If R0(i)<1, then we call patch i a low-risk patch in isolation, while if R0(i)>1, then we call it a high-risk patch in isolation. R0 is the basic reproduction number when two patches are connected.

5.1.1. R0(1)<1,R0(2)<1

Assuming β1=0.30, β2=0.69. We fix the migration rates by letting m21=0,m12=0, thus the basic reproduction numbers for both patches in isolation are R0(1)=0.9311<1, R0(2)=0.9419<1. This shows when there is no migration between the two patches, they are low-risk patches and the disease dies out in both patches.

If we fix the migration rates by letting m21=0.03,m12=0.01, and get R0=0.9407<1. This shows that the disease still dies out in both patches. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches are presented in Figure .

5.1.2. R0(1)>1,R0(2)>1

Assuming β1=0.37, β2=0.82. We fix the migration rates by letting m21=0,m12=0, thus the basic reproduction numbers for both patches in isolation are R0(1)=1.1484>1, R0(2)=1.1194>1. This shows when there is no migration between the two patches, they are high-risk patches and the disease becomes endemic in both patches. If we fix the migration rates by letting m21=0.03,m12=0.01, and get R0=1.1241>1. This shows that the disease still becomes endemic in both patches and there exists an endemic equilibrium. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches are presented in Figure .

Figure 2. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.30,β2=0.69,m21=0.03,m12=0.01, other parameters are shown in Table , and the basic reproduction number R0=0.9407<1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

Figure 2. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.30,β2=0.69,m21=0.03,m12=0.01, other parameters are shown in Table 2, and the basic reproduction number R0=0.9407<1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

5.1.3. R0(1)>1,R0(2)<1

Assuming β1=0.37, β2=0.69. We fix the migration rates by letting m21=0,m12=0, that is, there is no migration between the two patches. Thus the basic reproduction numbers for both patches in isolation are R0(1)=1.1484>1, R0(2)=0.9419<1. This shows that the disease becomes endemic in high-risk patch 1 and dies out in low-risk patch 2. When migration occurs and migration rates are set differently, the spread of disease may be different. If we fix the migration rates by letting m21=0.48,m12=0.10, thus R0=0.9616<1. Therefore, the disease-free equilibrium of (Equation1) E0 is globally asymptotically stable, the disease dies out in two patches, which means that patch 1 changes from a high-risk patch to a low-risk patch. In this way, migration can decrease the spread of disease. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches are presented in Figure .

Figure 3. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.37,β2=0.82,m21=0.03,m12=0.01, other parameters are shown in Table , and the basic reproduction number R0=1.1241>1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

Figure 3. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.37,β2=0.82,m21=0.03,m12=0.01, other parameters are shown in Table 2, and the basic reproduction number R0=1.1241>1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

If we fix the migration rates by letting m21=0.02,m12=0.35, thus R0=1.1303>1. Hence, the endemic equilibrium of (Equation1) E is globally asymptotically stable, the disease becomes endemic in both patches and there exists an endemic equilibrium, which means that patch 2 changes from a low-risk patch to a high-risk patch. In this way, migration can increase the spread of disease. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches are presented in Figure .

5.1.4. R0(1)<1,R0(2)>1

Assuming β1=0.30, β2=0.82. We fix the migration rates by letting m21=0,m12=0, that is, there is no migration between the two patches. Thus the basic reproduction numbers for both patches in isolation are R0(1)=0.9311<1, R0(2)=1.1194>1. This shows that the disease dies out in low-risk patch 1 and becomes endemic in high-risk patch 2. When migration occurs and migration rates are set differently, the spread of disease may be different.

If we fix the migration rates by letting m21=0.05,m12=0.70, thus R0=0.9620<1. Therefore, the disease-free equilibrium of (Equation1) E0 is globally asymptotically stable, the disease dies out in two patches, which means that patch 2 changes from a high-risk patch to a low-risk patch. In this way, migration can decrease the spread of disease. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches are presented in Figure . If we fix the migration rates by letting m21=0.01,m12=0.02, thus R0=1.0947>1. Therefore, the disease becomes endemic in both patches and there exists an endemic equilibrium, which means that patch 1 changes from a low-risk patch to a high-risk patch. In this way, migration can increase the spread of disease. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches are presented in Figure .

These cases suggest that the effect of population migration on disease transmission is related to the status of the two patches in isolation. If HIV/AIDS becomes extinct in each patch when two patches are isolated, the disease remains extinct in two patches when the population migration occurs; if HIV/AIDS spreads in each patch when two patches are isolated, the disease remains persistent in two patches when the population migration occurs; if the disease disappears in one patch and spreads in the other patch when they are isolated, the disease can spread or disappear in two patches if migration rates of individuals are suitably chosen.

Figure 4. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.37,β2=0.69,m21=0.48,m12=0.10, other parameters are shown in Table , and the basic reproduction number R0=0.9616<1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

Figure 4. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.37,β2=0.69,m21=0.48,m12=0.10, other parameters are shown in Table 2, and the basic reproduction number R0=0.9616<1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

Figure 5. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.37,β2=0.69,m21=0.02,m12=0.35, other parameters are shown in Table , and the basic reproduction number R0=1.1303>1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

Figure 5. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.37,β2=0.69,m21=0.02,m12=0.35, other parameters are shown in Table 2, and the basic reproduction number R0=1.1303>1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

Figure 6. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.30,β2=0.82,m21=0.05,m12=0.70, other parameters are shown in Table , and the basic reproduction number R0=0.9620<1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

Figure 6. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.30,β2=0.82,m21=0.05,m12=0.70, other parameters are shown in Table 2, and the basic reproduction number R0=0.9620<1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

Figure 7. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.30,β2=0.82,m21=0.01,m12=0.02, other parameters are shown in Table , and the basic reproduction number R0=1.0947>1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

Figure 7. Time series diagrams of different individuals in two patches with β1=0.30,β2=0.82,m21=0.01,m12=0.02, other parameters are shown in Table 2, and the basic reproduction number R0=1.0947>1: (a) susceptible individuals, (b) infective individuals and (c) AIDS individuals.

5.2. R0 versus migration rates m21 and m12

Sections 5.1.1 –5.1.4 show that the different migration rates between two patches may have different impacts on the spread of HIV/AIDS. To further understand the impacts of migration rates on the spread of HIV/AIDS, we use contour plots to show the relationship between R0 and migration rates.

5.2.1. R0(1)<1,R0(2)<1

In Figure , when β1=0.30,β2=0.69, the respective basic reproduction numbers of the disease for both patches in isolation are R0(1)=0.9311<1,R0(2)=0.9419<1, and no matter how migration rates m21 and m12 are set, R0<1. Thus if HIV/AIDS becomes extinct in each patch when two patches are isolated, the disease remains extinct in two patches when population migration between two patches occurs.

5.2.2. R0(1)>1,R0(2)>1

In Figure , when β1=0.37,β2=0.82, the respective basic reproduction numbers of the disease for both patches in isolation are R0(1)=1.1484>1,R0(2)=1.1194>1, and no matter how migration rates m21 and m12 are set, R0>1. Thus if HIV/AIDS spreads in each patch when two patches are isolated, the disease remains persistent in two patches when population migration between two patches occurs.

5.2.3. R0(1)>1,R0(2)<1

In Figure , according to Section 5.1.3, when β1=0.37,β2=0.69, R0(1)=1.1484>1,R0(2)=0.9419<1. Thus HIV/AIDS spreads in the first patch (Beijing City) and disappears in the second patch (Yunnan Province) when two patches are isolated. The red line denotes ‘R0=1’, that is the relationship between m21 and m12 satisfies bcad + a + d−1 = 0. When the relationship between m21 and m12 is below the red line, that is bcad + a + d−1<0, then R0<1, which means the disease will disappear in the two patches, otherwise it will spread.

5.2.4. R0(1)<1,R0(2)>1

In Figure , according to Section 5.1.4, when β1=0.30,β2=0.82, R0(1)=0.9311<1,R0(2)=1.1194>1. Thus HIV/AIDS disappears in the first patch (Beijing City) and spreads in the second patch (Yunnan Province) when two patches are isolated. The red line denotes ‘R0=1’, that is the relationship between m21 and m12 satisfies bcad + a + d−1 = 0. When the relationship between m21 and m12 is above the red line, that is bcad + a + d−1<0, then R0<1, which means the disease will disappear in the two patches, otherwise it will spread.

If two patches are low-risk when isolated, they are still low-risk regardless of migration. If two patches are high-risk when isolated, they are still high-risk regardless of migration. If one patch is low-risk and the other is high-risk in isolation, migration may make two patches low-risk and two patches high-risk. Therefore, when two patches are low-risk in isolation, we hardly need to control the migration rates. When one patch is low-risk and the other patch is high-risk in isolation, we can control the migration rates to make R0<1 according to Figures and , so that two patches are low-risk. Otherwise, if the migration rates are not properly controlled, the low-risk patch may become high-risk patch. After that, no matter how the migration rates are controlled, it is difficult to reverse the situation, and the disease will spread in two patches.

Figure 8. The contour plot of the basic reproduction number R0 versus migration rates m21 and m12 under parameters setting: β1=0.30,β2=0.69. Other parameters are shown in Table .

Figure 8. The contour plot of the basic reproduction number R0 versus migration rates m21 and m12 under parameters setting: β1=0.30,β2=0.69. Other parameters are shown in Table 2.

Figure 9. The contour plot of the basic reproduction number R0 versus migration rates m21 and m12 under parameter setting: β1=0.37,β2=0.82. Other parameters are shown in Table .

Figure 9. The contour plot of the basic reproduction number R0 versus migration rates m21 and m12 under parameter setting: β1=0.37,β2=0.82. Other parameters are shown in Table 2.

Figure 10. The contour plot of the basic reproduction number R0 versus migration rates m21 and m12 under parameters setting: β1=0.37,β2=0.69. Other parameters are shown in Table .

Figure 10. The contour plot of the basic reproduction number R0 versus migration rates m21 and m12 under parameters setting: β1=0.37,β2=0.69. Other parameters are shown in Table 2.

Figure 11. The contour plot of the basic reproduction number R0 versus migration rates m21 and m12 under parameters setting: β1=0.30,β2=0.82. Other parameters are shown in Table .

Figure 11. The contour plot of the basic reproduction number R0 versus migration rates m21 and m12 under parameters setting: β1=0.30,β2=0.82. Other parameters are shown in Table 2.

5.3. Comparison between no migration and migration in two patches

We consider β1=0.37,β2=0.69. When there is no migration between the two patches, i.e. m21=m12=0, the basic reproduction numbers for both patches in isolation are R0(1)=1.1484>1,R0(2)=0.9419<1. This shows that when there is no migration between the two patches, the disease becomes endemic in patch 1 and dies out in patch 2.

Figure 12. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 1 with β1=0.37,R0(1)=1.1484>1,β2=0.69,R0(2)=0.9419<1,R0=1.1188>1. Other parameters are shown in Table : (a) infective individuals and (b) AIDS individuals.

Figure 12. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 1 with β1=0.37,R0(1)=1.1484>1,β2=0.69,R0(2)=0.9419<1,R0=1.1188>1. Other parameters are shown in Table 2: (a) infective individuals and (b) AIDS individuals.

Figure 13. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 2 with β1=0.37,R0(1)=1.1484>1,β2=0.69,R0(2)=0.9419<1,R0=1.1188>1. Other parameters are shown in Table : (a) infective individuals and (b) AIDS individuals.

Figure 13. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 2 with β1=0.37,R0(1)=1.1484>1,β2=0.69,R0(2)=0.9419<1,R0=1.1188>1. Other parameters are shown in Table 2: (a) infective individuals and (b) AIDS individuals.

Figure 14. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 1 with β1=0.37,R0(1)=1.1484>1,β2=0.69,R0(2)=0.9419<1,R0=0.9800<1. Other parameters are shown in Table : (a) infective individuals and (b) AIDS individuals.

Figure 14. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 1 with β1=0.37,R0(1)=1.1484>1,β2=0.69,R0(2)=0.9419<1,R0=0.9800<1. Other parameters are shown in Table 2: (a) infective individuals and (b) AIDS individuals.

Figure 15. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 2 with β1=0.37,R0(1)=1.1484>1,β2=0.69,R0(2)=0.9419<1,R0=0.9800<1. Other parameters are shown in Table : (a) infective individuals and (b) AIDS individuals.

Figure 15. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 2 with β1=0.37,R0(1)=1.1484>1,β2=0.69,R0(2)=0.9419<1,R0=0.9800<1. Other parameters are shown in Table 2: (a) infective individuals and (b) AIDS individuals.

We fix the migration rates by letting m21=0.01,m12=0.02, thus R0=1.1188>1. Therefore, the disease becomes endemic in both patches and there exists an endemic equilibrium. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 1 is presented in Figure  and comparison between no migration and migration in patch 2 is presented in Figure . We fix the migration rates by letting m21=0.25,m12=0.10, thus R0=0.9800<1. Therefore, the disease dies out in two patches and there exists a disease-free equilibrium. Comparison between no migration and migration in patch 1 is presented in Figure , comparison between no migration and migration in patch 2 is presented in Figure .

It can be seen from Figures and that when migration occurs, the disease is still prevalent in patch 1, and the number of infected individuals becomes more; the disease also begin to spread in patch 2. It can be seen from Figures and that when migration occurs, the disease disappears in patch 1; the disease still disappears in patch 2.

6. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R0

To analyse the effects of the parameter values on the basic reproduction number R0 of system (Equation1), we perform sensitivity analysis by Latin square sampling and partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) methods [Citation24]. We tested for significant PRCC for parameters of R0. When R0(1)<1, PRCC is given in Table , and PRCC values of the parameters against the basic reproduction number R0 are shown Figure . When R0(1)>1, PRCCs are given in Table , and PRCC values of the parameters against the basic reproduction number R0 are shown in Figure . The parameters β1 and β2 of system (Equation1) have positive and significant impact on the basic reproduction number R0, which indicate that decreasing the transmission rates of sexual β1 and β2 in two patches is two effective measures to reduce the basic reproduction number R0. The parameters γ1f,γ1m,γ2f,γ2m,μ1f,μ1m,μ2f,μ2m have negative impacts on the basic reproduction number R0, of which γ1f,γ1m,γ2f,γ2m have more significant negative impacts on R0. It means that if these transfer rates can be strictly controlled, R0 will decrease, that is, if the number of infected individuals can be controlled, the disease will gradually disappear. We have shown that the impact of migration rates m21 and m12 on the basic reproduction number R0 is always one positive and one negative. In Figure , when R0(1)<1, m21 has a positive impact and m12 has a negative impact. This is also shown in Figures and of the contour plots. However, in Figure , when R0(1)>1, m21 has a negative impact and m12 has a positive impact. This is also shown in Figures and of the contour plots. Therefore, we should effectively control the migration rates according to the actual situation of the two patches, so as to reduce R0 and make the disease disappear gradually. From the perspective of the research process, the most effective measure to control and prevent HIV/AIDS spread is to reduce contact with infected individuals, thereby reducing the parameter values of β1 and β2. From the perspective of control, R0 can be reduced by increasing publicity, education and using condoms, etc. In Figure , it is shown that decreasing transmission rates can reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS in two patches. Hence, to control the spread of HIV/AIDS, the intervention measure must be taken.

7. Conclusion

Cosner et al. [Citation12] and Sattenspiel et al. [Citation27] introduced two models of human movement, including Euler movement model and Lagrange movement model. Citron et al. [Citation11] further introduced the two models and examples were given to illustrate how to combine the two models with the research problems. Therefore, Euler movement and Lagrange movement are usually considered for individual movement.

Figure 16. Value of correlation coefficient for outcome R0 when R0(1)<1.

Figure 16. Value of correlation coefficient for outcome R0 when R0(1)<1.

Figure 17. Value of correlation coefficient for outcome R0 when R0(1)>1.

Figure 17. Value of correlation coefficient for outcome R0 when R0(1)>1.

Figure 18. Influence of different transmission rate parameters on HIV/AIDS transmission in two patches with m21=0.01,m12=0.02. Other parameters are shown in Table : (a) infective individuals in patch 1, (b) AIDS individuals in patch 1, (c) infective individuals in patch 2 and (d) AIDS individuals in patch 2.

Figure 18. Influence of different transmission rate parameters on HIV/AIDS transmission in two patches with m21=0.01,m12=0.02. Other parameters are shown in Table 2: (a) infective individuals in patch 1, (b) AIDS individuals in patch 1, (c) infective individuals in patch 2 and (d) AIDS individuals in patch 2.

Table 3. The PRCC of the parameters in system (Equation1) when R0(1)<1.

Table 4. The PRCC of the parameters in system (Equation1) when R0(1)>1.

In this paper, we considered the movement of individuals as the form of Euler movement. And we have proposed an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with heterosexual transmission in a patchy environment to study the dynamics of disease transmission under the influence of population migration among patches. A patch can be interpreted as a city, a province or a country, etc. We have shown that R0<1 implies that the disease-free equilibrium is unique and globally asymptotically stable and R0>1 implies that the disease is uniformly persistent if migration matrix M=(mij) is irreducible. If M=(mij) is irreducible and there exist ηj1,ηj2>0 such that Sjf=ηj1Ijf,Sjm=ηj2Ijm for all 1i,jn, the endemic equilibrium E is unique and globally asymptotically stable. We have selected two patches for numerical simulations. We have chosen the data from the Beijing City and Yunnan Province, Beijing City is regarded as the first patch, Yunnan Province is regarded as the second patch. Population migration may increase the spread of disease, turning a low-risk patch into a high-risk patch, or it may reduce the spread of disease, turning a high-risk patch into a low-risk patch. The effect of population migration on disease transmission is related to the status of the two patches in isolation. If HIV/AIDS becomes extinct in each patch when two patches are isolated, the disease remains extinct in two patches when the population migration occurs; if HIV/AIDS spreads in each patch when two patches are isolated, the disease remains persistent in two patches when the population migration occurs; if the disease disappears in one patch and spreads in the other patch when they are isolated, the disease can spread or disappear in two patches if migration rates of individuals are suitably chosen. We have shown that the impacts of migration rates m21 and m12 on the basic reproduction number R0 is always one positive and one negative. When R0(1)<1, m21 has a positive impact and m12 has a negative impact; when R0(1)>1, m21 has a negative impact and m12 has a positive impact. When two patches are low-risk in isolation, we hardly need to control the migration rates. When one patch is low-risk and the other patch is high-risk in isolation, we can control the migration rates to make R0<1 according to Figures , so that two patches are low-risk. Otherwise, if the migration rates are not properly controlled, the low-risk patch may become high-risk patch. After that, no matter how the migration rates are controlled, it is difficult to reverse the situation, and the disease will spread in two patches. Therefore, we should effectively control the migration rates according to the actual situation of the two patches, so as to reduce R0 and make the disease reduce gradually. In addition, Figure has shown that reducing contact with infected individuals, i.e. reducing the parameter values of β1 and β2 is also a key measure to reduce the spread of the disease. The model established in this paper is helpful to understand the spread of HIV/AIDS among regions when population migration occurs. In addition, the model can also be used in other regions. These studies enrich the research on patches.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the referees for their helpful suggestions that improved the presentation of this manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work is supported by the National Sciences Foundation of China (No. 11971278), Shanxi Provincial Research and Development Program (No. 202102130501002) and Health Commission of Shanxi Province (2020XM18).

References

  • World Health Organization, 10 facts about HIV/AIDS. Available at http://www.who.int/news-room/facts-in-pictures/detail/hiv-aids.
  • Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics. Available at http://tjj.beijing.gov.cn/.
  • Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Available at http://stats.yn.gov.cn/.
  • Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Available at https://ncaids.chinacdc.cn/
  • Julien Arino and P. Van Den Driessche, A multi-city epidemic model, Math. Popul. Stud. 10 (2003), pp. 175–193.
  • Julien Arino and Pauline Van Den Driessche, The basic reproduction number in a multi-city compartmental epidemic model, in Positive Systems, Springer, 2003, pp. 135–142.
  • Julien Arino and P. Van Den Driessche, Disease spread in metapopulations, Fields Inst. Commun. 48 (2006), pp. 1–13.
  • Nicolas Bacaër, Xamxinur Abdurahman, and Jianli Ye, Modeling the HIV/AIDS epidemic among injecting drug users and sex workers in kunming, China, Bull. Math. Biol. 68 (2006), pp. 525–550.
  • Abraham Berman and Robert J. Plemmons, Nonnegative Matrices in the Mathematical Sciences, SIAM, 1994.
  • Liming Cai, Xuezhi Li, Mini Ghosh, and Baozhu Guo, Stability analysis of an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 229 (2009), pp. 313–323.
  • Daniel T. Citron, Carlos A. Guerra, Andrew J. Dolgert, Sean L. Wu, John M. Henry, and David L.Smith, Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 118 (2021), Article ID e2007488118.
  • Chris Cosner, John C. Beier, Robert Stephen Cantrell, D. Impoinvil, Lev Kapitanski, Matthew DavidPotts, A. Troyo, and Shigui Ruan, The effects of human movement on the persistence of vector-borne diseases, J. Theor. Biol. 258 (2009), pp. 550–560.
  • Odo Diekmann, Johan A.J. Heesterbeek, and Johan Andre PeterMetz, On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations, J. Math. Biol. 28 (1990), pp. 365–382.
  • Daozhou Gao, Travel frequency and infectious diseases, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 79 (2019), pp. 1581–1606.
  • Daozhou Gao and Shigui Ruan, An SIS patch model with variable transmission coefficients, Math. Biosci. 232 (2011), pp. 110–115.
  • Hongbin Guo, Michael Y. Li, and Zhisheng Shuai, Global stability of the endemic equilibrium of multigroup SIR epidemic models, Can. Appl. Math. Q. 14 (2006), pp. 259–284.
  • Hongbin Guo, Michael Li, and Zhisheng Shuai, A graph-theoretic approach to the method of global Lyapunov functions, Proc. Am. Math. Soc. 136 (2008), pp. 2793–2802.
  • Yu Jin and Wendi Wang, The effect of population dispersal on the spread of a disease, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 308 (2005), pp. 343–364.
  • Kate E. Jones, Nikkita G. Patel, Marc A. Levy, Adam Storeygard, Deborah Balk, John L. Gittleman, and Peter Daszak, Global trends in emerging infectious diseases, Nature 451 (2008), pp. 990–993.
  • Hossein Kheiri and Mohsen Jafari, Stability analysis of a fractional order model for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in a patchy environment, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 346 (2019), pp. 323–339.
  • J.P. LaSalle, The Stability of Dynamical Systems, Regional Conference Ser, Applied Mathematics, SIAM, Philadelphia, 1976.
  • Michael Li and Zhisheng Shuai, Global stability of an epidemic model in a patchy environment, Can. Appl. Math. Q. 17 (2009), pp. 175–187.
  • Michael Y. Li and Zhisheng Shuai, Global-stability problem for coupled systems of differential equations on networks, J. Differ. Equ. 248 (2010), pp. 1–20.
  • Simeone Marino, Ian B. Hogue, Christian J. Ray, and Denise E. Kirschner, A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology, J. Theor. Biol. 254 (2008), pp. 178–196.
  • Robert K. Mccormack and Linda J.S. Allen, Multi-patch deterministic and stochastic models for wildlife diseases, J. Biol. Dyn. 1 (2007), pp. 63–85.
  • Z. Mukandavire, W. Garira, and C. Chiyaka, Asymptotic properties of an HIV/AIDS model with a time delay, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 330 (2007), pp. 916–933.
  • Lisa Sattenspiel and Klaus Dietz, A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions, Math. Biosci. 128 (1995), pp. 71–91.
  • Hal L. Smith and Paul Waltman, The Theory of the Chemostat: Dynamics of Microbial Competition, Cambridge University Press, 1995.
  • Horst R. Thieme, Convergence results and a Poincaré–Bendixson trichotomy for asymptotically autonomous differential equations, J. Math. Biol. 30 (1992), pp. 755–763.
  • Horst R. Thieme, Persistence under relaxed point-dissipativity (with application to an endemic model), SIAM J. Math. Anal. 24 (1993), pp. 407–435.
  • Pauline Van den Driessche and James Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci. 180 (2002), pp. 29–48.
  • Wendi Wang and G. Mulone, Threshold of disease transmission in a patch environment, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 285 (2003), pp. 321–335.
  • Wendi Wang and Xiao-Qiang Zhao, An epidemic model in a patchy environment, Math. Biosci. 190 (2004), pp. 97–112.
  • Xinxin Wang, Shengqiang Liu, Lin Wang, and Weiwei Zhang, An epidemic patchy model with entry–exit screening, Bull. Math. Biol. 77 (2015), pp. 1237–1255.
  • Juping Zhang, Chris Cosner, and Huaiping Zhu, Two-patch model for the spread of West Nile virus, Bull. Math. Biol. 80 (2018), pp. 840–863.
  • Xiao-Qiang Zhao, Dynamical Systems in Population Biology Vol. 16, Springer, 2003.
  • Hongyong Zhao, Peng Wu, and Shigui Ruan, Dynamic analysis and optimal control of a three-age-class HIV/AIDS epidemic model in China, Discrete Continuous Dyn. Syst. Ser. B 25 (2020), pp. 3491–3521.

Appendix

Appendix 1.

Proof of Theorem 3.4

Proof.

By Theorem 3.3, the existence of an endemic equilibrium E is ensured. We prove that E is globally asymptotically stable in int(X).

First, we prove that if there exist ηj1,ηj2>0 such that Sjf=ηj1Ijf,Sjm=ηj2Ijm for 1jn, E is the only endemic equilibrium. We consider the following system: (A1) εiΛiβiSifIimNimμifSif+j=1,jin(mijSjfmjiSif)=0,βiSifIimNim(μif+γif)Iif+j=1,jin(mijIjfmjiIif)=0,γifIif(μif+dif)Aif+j=1,jin(mijAjfmjiAif)=0,(1εi)ΛiβiSimIifNifμimSim+j=1,jin(mijSjmmjiSim)=0,βiSimIifNif(μim+γim)Iim+j=1,jin(mijIjmmjiIim)=0,γimIim(μim+dim)Aim+j=1,jin(mijAjmmjiAim)=0.(A1) From the first two equations of (EquationA1), we have εiΛi(μif+γif+j=1,jinmji)Iif+j=1,jinmijIjf(μif+j=1,jinmji)Sif+j=1,jinmijSjf=0,i=1,2,,n,or in the form of matrix ASf=εΛ(A+γf)If,where Sf=(S1f,S2f,,Snf)T,If=(I1f,I2f,,Inf)T,ε=diag(ε1,ε2,,εn),Λ=(Λ1,Λ2,, Λn)T, and γf=diag(γ1f,γ2f,,γnf). Therefore, we have ASf=εΛ(A+γf)If, where Sf=(S1f,S2f,,Snf)T,If=(I1f,I2f,,Inf)T. Since Sjf=ηj1Ijf,j=1,2,,n, hence εΛ(A+γf)If=AUIf, where U=diag(η11,η21,,ηn1). Since all off-diagonal entries of A+γf+AU is non-positive and the sum of the entries in each column of A+γf+AU is positive, so A+γf+AU is a nonsingular M-matrix and (A+γf+AU)10, hence If=(I1f,I2f,,Inf)T=(A+γf+AU)1εΛ>0. In the same way, we have BSm=(1ε)Λ(B+γm)Im, where Sm=(S1m,S2m,,Snm)T,Im=(I1m,I2m,,Inm)T and γm=diag(γ1m,γ2m,,γnm). Therefore, we have BSm=(1ε)Λ(B+γm)Im, where Sm=(S1m,S2m,,Snm)T,Im=(I1m,I2m,,Inm)T. Since Sjm=ηj2Ijm,j=1,2,,n, hence (1ε)Λ(B+γm)Im=BWIm, where W=diag(η12η22,,ηn2). We obtain Im=(I1m,I2m,,Inm)T=(B+γm+BW)1(1ε)Λ>0.

We write the third and sixth equations of (EquationA1) in matrix form respectively, i.e. (A+Df)Af=γfIf and (B+Dm)Am=γmIm, where Df=diag(d1f,d2f,,dnf),Dm=diag(d1m,d2m,,dnm). Since all off-diagonal entries of A+Df and B+Dm are non-positive and the sum of the entries in each column of A+Df and B+Dm is positive, so they are two nonsingular M-matrices, (A+Df)10,(B+Dm)10. Therefore, linear system (A+Df)Af=γfIf has a unique positive solution Af=(A1f,A2f,,Anf)T=γf(A+Df)1If>0, linear system (B+Dm)Am=γmIm has a unique positive solution Am=(A1m,A2m,,Anm)T=γm(B+Dm)1Im>0, Sf=(S1f,S2f,,Snf)T=A1εΛA1(A+γf)If=UIf>0, and Sm=(S1m,S2m,,Snm)T=B1(1ε)ΛB1(B+γm)Im=WIm>0.

Then we prove that the endemic equilibrium E of system (Equation1) is globally asymptotically stable in int(X) when R0>1.

Define Vi:{(S1f,S1m,I1f,I1m,,Snf,Snm,Inf,Inm)X|Sif>0,Sim>0,Iif>0,Iim>0i=1,2,,n}R by Vi(t)=SifSifSiflnSifSif+SifIimNifSimIifNim(SimSimSimlnSimSim)+IifIifIiflnIifIif+SifIimNifSimIifNim(IimIimIimlnIimIim).From equilibrium equations of (Equation1), we obtain μifSif=εiΛiβiSifIimNim+j=1n(mijSjfmjiSif),(μif+γif)Iif=βiSifIimNim+j=1n(mijIjfmjiIif),μimSim=(1εi)ΛiβiSimIifNif+j=1n(mijSjmmjiSim),(μim+γim)Iim=βiSimIifNif+j=1n(mijIjmmjiIim).Note that 1x+lnx0 for x>0 and equality holds if and only if x = 1. Calculating the time derivative of Vi(t) along solutions of system (Equation1), we have Vi(t)=(1SifSif)[εiΛi+j=1n(mijSjfmjiSif)βiSifIimNimεiΛiβiSifIimNim+j=1n(mijSjfmjiSif)SifSif]+SifIimNifSimIifNim(1SimSim)[(1εi)Λi+j=1n(mijSjmmjiSim)βiSimIifNif(1εi)ΛiβiSimIifNif+j=1n(mijSjmmjiSim)SimSim]+(1IifIif)[βiSifIimNim+j=1n(mijIjfmjiIif)βiSifIimNim+j=1n(mijIjfmjiIif)IifIif]+SifIimNifSimIifNim(1IimIim)[βiSimIifNif+j=1n(mijIjmmjiIim)βiSimIifNif+j=1n(mijIjmmjiIim)IimIim]=εiΛi(2SifSifSifSif)+(1εi)Λi(2SimSimSimSim)+βiSifIimNim(2SifSifIifIif+IimNimIimNimSifIimNimIifSifIimNimIif)+βiSifIimNim(2SimSimIimIim+IifNifIifNifSimIifNifIimSimIifNifIim)+j=1nmijSjf(1+SjfSjfSifSifSifSjfSifSjf)+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijSjm(1+SjmSjmSimSimSimSjmSimSjm)+j=1nmijIjf(1+IjfIjfIifIifIifIjfIifIjf)+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm(1+IjmIjmIimIimIimIjmIimIjm)εiΛi(2SifSifSifSif)+SifIimNifSimIifNim(1εi)Λi(2SimSimSimSim)+βiSifIimNim[(IimNimIimNimIifIiflnSifSiflnSifIimNimIifSifIimNimIif)+(IifNifIifNifIimIimlnSimSimlnSimIifNifIimSimIifNifIim)]+j=1nmijSjf(1SifSjfSifSjf+lnSifSjfSifSjf)+j=1nmijSjf(SjfSjfSifSif+lnSifSiflnSjfSjf)+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijSjm(1SimSjmSimSjm+lnSimSjmSimSjm)+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijSjm(SjmSjmSimSim+lnSimSimlnSjmSjm)+j=1nmijIjf(1IifIjfIifIjf+lnIifIjfIifIjf)+j=1nmijIjf(IjfIjfIifIif+lnIifIiflnIjfIjf)+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm(1IimIjmIimIjm+lnIimIjmIimIjm)+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm(IjmIjmIimIim+lnIimIimlnIjmIjm)βiSifIimNim[(IimNimIimNimlnIimNimIimNim+lnIifIifIifIif)+(IifNifIifNiflnIifNifIifNif+lnIimIimIimIim)]+j=1nmijSjf(SjfSjfSifSif+lnSifSiflnSjfSjf)+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijSjm(SjmSjmSimSim+lnSimSimlnSjmSjm)+j=1nmijIjf(IjfIjfIifIif+lnIifIiflnIjfIjf)+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm(IjmIjmIimIim+lnIimIimlnIjmIjm)=βiSifIimNim[(IimNimIimNimlnIimNimIimNim+lnIifIifIifIif)+(IifNifIifNiflnIifNifIifNif+lnIimIimIimIim)]+j=1nmijIjf[(ηj1SjfSjf+ηj1lnSifSifηj1SifSifηj1lnSjfSjf)+(IjfIjfIifIif+lnIifIiflnIjfIjf)]+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm[(ηj2SjmSjm+ηj2lnSimSimηj2SimSimηj2lnSjmSjm)+(IjmIjmIimIim+lnIimIimlnIjmIjm)]=βiSifIimNim[(IifNifIifNiflnIifNifIifNif+IimNimIimNimlnIimNimIimNim)(IifIiflnIifIif+IimIimlnIimIim)]+j=1nmijIjf[(ηj1SjfSjfηj1lnSjfSjf+IjfIjflnIjfIjf)(ηj1SifSifηj1lnSifSif+IifIiflnIifIif)]+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm[(ηj2SjmSjmηj2lnSjmSjm+IjmIjmlnIjmIjm)(ηj2SimSimηj2lnSimSim+IimIimlnIimIim)]=βiSifIimNim[Gi(IifNif,IimNim)Gi(Iif,Iim)]+j=1nmijIjf[Gjf(Sjf,Ijf)Gif(Sif,Iif)]+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm[Gjm(Sjm,Ijm)Gim(Sim,Iim)]βiSifIimNim[Gi(Iif,Iim)Gi(Iif,Iim)]+j=1nmijIjf[Gjf(Sjf,Ijf)Gif(Sif,Iif)]+j=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm[Gjm(Sjm,Ijm)Gim(Sim,Iim)],

where Gi(Iif,Iim)=IifIiflnIifIif+IimIimlnIimIim,Gif(Sif,Iif)=ηj1SifSifηj1lnSifSif+IifIiflnIifIif,Gim(Sim,Iim)=ηj2SimSimηj2lnSimSim+IimIimlnIimIim.Consider two weight matrices Wf=(wijf) with entry wijf=mijIjf and Wm=(wijm) with entry wijm=mijIjm, and denote the corresponding weighted digraphs as (Gf,Wf) and (Gm,Wm). Let Cif=τTiωf(τ), Cim=τTiωm(τ). Then i=1nCifj=1nmijIjf[Gjf(Sjf,Ijf)Gif(Sif,Iif)]=0,i=1nCimj=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm[Gjm(Sjm,Ijm)Gim(Sim,Iim)]=0.Set V=i=1n[Cif(SifSifSiflnSifSif)+CimSifIimNifSimIifNim(SimSimSimlnSimSim)+Cif(IifIifIiflnIifIif)+CimSifIimNifSimIifNim(IimIimIimlnIimIim)],then dVdti=1nCifj=1nmijIjf[Gjf(Sjf,Ijf)Gif(Sif,Iif)]+i=1nCimj=1nSifIimNifSimIifNimmijIjm[Gjm(Sjm,Ijm)Gim(Sim,Iim)]=0.Therefore, V is a Lyapunov function for system (Equation1). Since M=(mij) is irreducible, from Theorem 2.1 in [Citation23], we know that Cif>0 and Cim>0 for all i, and thus V=0 implies that Sif=Sif,Sim=Sim for all i. From the third and sixth equations of (Equation1), we obtain 0=dAifdt=γifIif(μif+dif)Aif+j=1n(mijAjfmjiAif)=γifIif(μif+dif)Aif+(μif+dif)AifγifIif=γif(IifIif),0=dAimdt=γimIim(μim+dim)Aim+j=1n(mijAjmmjiAim)=γimIim(μim+dim)Aim+(μim+dim)AimγimIim=γim(IimIim),which implies that Iif=Iif,Iim=Iim for all i. From the first and fourth equations of (Equation1), we obtain 0=dSifdt=εiΛiβiSifIimNimμifSif+j=1n(mijSjfmjiSif)=βiSifIimNim+μifSifj=1n(mijSjfmjiSif)βiSifIimNimμifSif+j=1n(mijSjfmjiSif)=βiSif(IimNimIimNim),0=dSimdt=εiΛiβiSimIifNifμimSim+j=1n(mijSjmmjiSim)=βiSimIifNif+μimSimj=1n(mijSjmmjiSim)βiSimIifNifμimSim+j=1n(mijSjmmjiSim)=βiSim(IifNifIifNif),which implies that Nif=Nif,Nim=Nim for all i, thus Aif=Aif,Aim=Aim. The largest (and only) invariant set on which V=0 is the singleton {E}. Therefore, by LaSalle Invariance Principle [Citation21], E is globally asymptotically stable when R0>1.