Armed and disarmed in Eritrea: the regional dimension of DDR in post-2018 Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

In 2018, armed groups opposing the incumbent in Ethiopia, agreed to desert the violent means and participate in Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR). Like many DDR processes, it faced discrepant combatant data, lack of clear strategy, poor coordination and delays; these were challenges that emerged from absence of clear DDR planning and elaborated peace agreements between the Ethiopian government and the armed groups. While these technical and political challenges are understood in relation to DDR around the world, analysis tends to acknowledge but fail to properly theorize regional contexts such as the reality where armed groups are hosted by neighbouring countries, the relationship between adjacent countries, proxy wars, insecure borders and the regional dimension of proliferation of arms, which are particular challenges in the Horn of Africa. We argue that these regional realities shaped DDR in post-2018 Ethiopia; groups that were arguably sustained by the very nature of the region itself. Drawing from extensive interviews with armed group leaders and members, civil society and government stakeholders, we contribute towards the understanding of DDR’s regional dimensions; in 2018 the promise of regional stability through the Ethiopian-Eritrean reproachment was central to the armed groups participation in the DDR processes and its management.

KEYWORDS:

• DDR
• Ethiopia
• Eritrea
• Horn of Africa

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Ayalew, Dercon, and Krishnan, “Demobilization, Land and Household,” 1–2.

2 Berhe, “Transition from War to Peace,” 143–4.

3 Muggah, “Context Maters in Ethiopia,” 210.

4 Humphreys and Weinstein, “Demobilization and Reintegration,” 68.

5 Verjee, “Political Transitions in Sudan and Ethiopia,” 279.

6 Gudina, “Elections and Democratization,” 676.

7 Interview with KfW Development Bank project coordinator, 31 March 2022.

8 McQuinn, “DDR and the Internal Organization,” 1.

9 Ibid., 1, 3, 4, 6.

10 Knight, “Expanding the DDR Model,” 1.

11 Zena, “The Lessons and Limits of DDR,” 6.

12 Ibid., 6.

13 Özerdem and Jacoby, “Post-War Recovery,” 48; Mumford, “Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR),” 2956.

14 Mumford, “Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR),” 2956.

15 Ibid., 2968.

16 Patel, “Transitional Justice, DDR, and Security Sector Reform,” 2.

17 Colleta, Kostner and Wiederhofer, Case Studies in War-to-Peace, 25, 217 and 125.

18 Muggah and O’Donnell, “Next Generation Disarmament,” 3.

19 Knight, “Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration,” 11.

20 Ansorg, “Security Sector Reform,” 138.

21 Colleta, Kostner, and Wiederhofer, Case Studies in War-to-Peace, xv.

22 Knight and Özerdem, “Guns, Camps and Cash,” 499.

23 Sawani, “Security Sector Reform,” 2.

24 United Nations, “Second Generation DDR,” 10.

25 Ibid.

26 Knight, “Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration,” 7; Brahimi, “Report of the Panel,” 4; Muggah, “No Magic Bullet,” 248.

27 Muggah and O’Donnell, “Next Generation Disarmament,” 3.

28 Ibid., 4.

29 Silberfein, “The Geopolitics of Conflict and Diamonds,” 219.

30 Idegwu, “Conflicts and Security in West,” 100.

31 Gberie, “War and Peace in Sierra Leone,” 2.

32 Ibid., 8.

33 Ibid., 1.

34 Idegwu, “Conflicts and Security in West,” 103.

35 Silberfein, “The Geopolitics of Conflict and Diamonds,” 227.

36 Gberie, “War and Peace in Sierra Leone,” 5.

37 Silberfein, “The Geopolitics of Conflict and Diamonds,” 227.

38 Muggah and O’Donnell, “Next Generation Disarmament,” 4.

39 Sawani, “Security Sector Reform,” 9. Chivvis, Libya's Post-Qaddafi Transition.

40 Sawani, “Security Sector Reform,” 9.

41 Ibid., 4.

42 Muggah and O’Donnell, “Next Generation Disarmament,” 6.

43 Ibid.

44 Ibid., 8.

45 Williams, “AMISOM in Transition,” 4.

46 Muggah and O’Donnell, “Next Generation Disarmament,” 4.

47 United Nations. “Report of the Secretary-General,” 5.

48 Knight, “Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration,” 36.

49 Ibid., 36, 42.

50 Zena, “The Lessons and Limits of DDR,” 4.

51 Berhanu, “Conflicts in the Horn of Africa,” 72.

52 Ibid., 78.

53 Burgess, “Stabilization, Peacebuilding, and Sustainability,” 84.

54 Kabandula and Shaw, “Rising Powers and the Horn of Africa,” 6–7.

55 Agyeman-Duah, “The Horn of Africa,” 16.

56 Kabandula and Shaw, “Rising Powers and the Horn of Africa,” 13.

57 Berhanu, “Conflicts in the Horn of Africa,” 87; Kabandula and Shaw, “Rising Powers and the Horn of Africa,” 14.

58 Abbink, “Ethiopia-Eritrea: Proxy Wars,” 407.

59 Ibid.

60 Cliffe, “Regional Dimensions of Conflict,” 89.

61 Mercy, “The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT),” 3.

62 Abbink, “Ethiopia-Eritrea: Proxy Wars,” 413.

63 Ibid., 417.

64 Ibid., 414; Berhanu, “Conflicts in the Horn of Africa,” 79.

65 Berhanu, “Conflicts in the Horn of Africa,” 87.

66 Abbink, “Ethiopia-Eritrea: Proxy Wars,” 415.

67 Cliffe, “Regional Dimensions of Conflict,” 91.

68 Cliffe, Love and Tronvoll, “Conflict and Peace in the Horn,” 155.

69 Berhanu, “Conflicts in the Horn of Africa,” 79.

70 Ulrichsen, “The Geopolitics of Insecurity,” 129.

71 Cliffe, “Regional Dimensions of Conflict,” 92.

72 Abbink, “Ethiopia-Eritrea: Proxy Wars,” 416.

73 Cliffe, “Regional Dimensions of Conflict,” 92.

74 Ibid., 96.

75 Ibid., 100.

76 Abbink, “Paradoxes of Electoral Authoritarianism,” 304.

77 Ibid.

78 Daniel Mumbere, “Ethiopia: ONLF Rebels Disarm, Sign Agreement with Somali State.” Africa News, 9 February 2019. https://www.africanews.com/2019/02/09/ethiopia-onlf-rebels-disarm-sign-agreement-with-somali-state/ (Accessed 29 June 2022).

79 Ylönen, “The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF),” 21.

80 Mumbere, “Ethiopia: ONLF Rebels,” op. cit.

81 Ethiopian News Agency, “Welcoming of ADFM in Bahir Dar.” 13 September 2018. https://www.ena.et/?p=17726 (Accessed 29 June 2022).

82 Demekew Bayabil (Political wing leader, ADFM), interview with ESAT, 3 February 2017. https://bandirachin.wordpress.com/2017/02/03/የአማራ-ዴሞክረሲያዊ-ሃይል-ንቅናቄ-አዴህ (Accessed 29 June 2022).

83 Ibid.

84 Ibid.

85 Ethiopian News Agency, “Welcoming of ADFM in Bahir Dar,” op. cit.

86 The election in 2005 took place on 15 May. The name Ginbot Sebat (Ginbot Seven) is a date in the Ethiopian Calendar that corresponds to 15 May.

87 Committee against Torture, (CAT/C/62/D/688/2015). “Decision Adopted by the Committee under Article 22 of the Convention, Concerning Communication No. 688/2015.” 21 December 2017. https://tbinternet.ohchr.org/_layouts/15/TreatyBodyExternal/SessionDetails1.aspx?SessionID=1173&Lang=en.

88 Teame, “Regime Change, Legal Reform,” 4.

89 Makahamadze and Muluken, “Popular Protests in the Amhara Region,” 23.

90 Patriotic Ginbot-7, “A Breakthrough Agreement Between ODF and Patriotic G7.” 14 August 2016. https://www.patriotg7.org/?p=1043 (Accessed 4 June 2022).

91 Interview with ex-combatant, June 2020.

92 BBC News, “ስለ የትግራይ ህዝብ ዴሞክራስያዊ ንቅናቄ- ትህዴን ምን ያህል ያውቃሉ?” 10 October 2018. https://www.bbc.com/amharic/news-45812229 (Accessed 2 July 2022).

93 William Davison, “Ethiopian Opposition Leader Travels to Eritrea to Lead Rebellion.” Pan African Vision, 24 July 2015. https://panafricanvisions.com/2015/07/ethiopian-opposition-leader-travels-to-eritrea-to-lead-rebellion/ (Accessed 2 July 2022).

94 Horn Affairs, “Ethiopia: Official Statement on TPDM Fighters Return from Eritrea.” 15 September 2015. https://hornaffairs.com/2015/09/15/ethiopia-official-statement-tpdm-fighters-return-eritrea/ (Accessed 2 July 2022).

95 Andargachew Tsege (former PG-7 leader), in discussion with the author, June 2020. Africa News. “ONLF Declares a Unilateral Ceasefire.” 12 August 2020. https://www.africanews.com/2018/08/12/onlf-declares-a-unilateral-ceasefire/ (Accessed 2 July 2022).

96 Andargachew Tsege (former PG-7 leader), in discussion with the author, June 2020.

97 The election was scheduled to take place in August 2020, it was later postponed to September 2021 due to the COVID pandemic.

98 Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, “Eritrea Hosts Final Peace Pact Between Ethiopia and ONLF.” Africa News, 22 October 2018. https://www.africanews.com/2018/10/22/eritrea-hosts-final-peace-pact-between-ethiopia-and-onlf/ (Accessed 2 July 2022).

99 BBC News, “ስለ የትግራይ ህዝብ ዴሞክራስያዊ ንቅናቄ,” op. cit.

100 Goitom Gebreluel, “Ethiopia and Eritrea’s Second Rapprochement.” Aljazeera, 18 September 2018. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2018/9/18/ethiopia-and-eritreas-second-rapprochement (Accessed 20 November 2023).

101 Getachew Zeru, “Ethio-Eritrean Rapprochement: Where is the Fruit After Two Years?” Wilson Centre Blog. 22 September 2020. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ethio-eritrean-rapprochement-where-is-the-fruit-after-two-years (Accessed 20 November 2023).

102 Cliffe, “Regional Dimensions of Conflict,” 92.

103 Interview with ex-combatant, May 2020.

104 Ibid.

105 Aemro, “Factors for Misuse of Small Arms,” 8.

106 Interview with former combatant, June 2020.

107 Interview with a local civil disobedience group leader, June 2020.

108 Borkena. “Tigray People’s Democratic Movement (TPDM) Announces Merger with TPLF.” 9 December 2019. https://borkena.com/2019/12/09/tigray-peoples-democratic-movement-tpdm-announces-merger-with-tplf/ (Accessed 2 July 2022).

109 Martin Plaut, “Ethiopia Attempts to Mobilise Former Tigray Dissidents.” Eritrea Hub, 18 April 2021. https://eritreahub.org/ethiopia-attempts-to-mobilise-former-tigray-dissidents (Accessed 2 July 2021).

110 Andargachew Tsege (former armed group leader), in discussion with the author, June 2020.

111 Interview with former combatant, June 2020.

112 Interview with manager at AFRRID, June 2020.

113 Interview with former combatant, June 2020.

114 Interview with a local researcher and a former leader, June 2020.

115 Crisis Group, “Ethiopia’s Ominous New War in Amhara.” 16 November 2023. https://www.google.com/?client=safari&channel=iphone_bm (Accessed 26 March 2024).

116 Tazebew, “Amhara Nationalism.”

117 Tom Gardner, “Political Violence Could Derail Ethiopia’s Democratic Transition.” Foreign Policy. https:foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/20/political-violence-could-derail-ethiopia-democratic-transition-assassination/ (Accessed 26 March 2024).

118 Interview with former combatant, June 2020.

119 Ibid.

120 See the Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) project description page, “Reintegration of Former Combatants.” https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/77249.html (Accessed 29 July 2022).

121 Interview with a senior project coordinator at KfW Development Bank, March 2022.

122 Ibid.

123 Interview with regional security officer, May 2021.

124 Interview with a senior project coordinator at KfW Development Bank, March 2022.

125 Ibid.

126 Ibid.

127 Interview with regional security officer, May 2021.

128 Júlia Palik, “Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration in Ethiopia: What to Expect.” Political Violence at a Glance, 31 January 2023. https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2023/01/31/disarmament-demobilization-and-reintegration-in-ethiopia-what-to-expect/ (Accessed 15 November 2023).

129 Ojeleye, “The Application of Demobilisation.”

130 Ibid., 143.

131 Ibid.

132 Middle East Eye, “Sudan Launches Assault on Ethiopia After Alleged Executions.” 28 June 2022. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sudan-ethiopia-assault-launched-after-alleged-executions (Accessed 13 November 2023).

133 Seeye Abraha Hagos, “Why Eritrea Won’t Leave Ethiopia.” Foreign Policy, 4 May 2021. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/04/eritrea-wont-leave-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-isaias-afwerki/ (Accessed 26 March 2024).

134 Melaku, “Peace Agreements Between Ethiopia.”

135 Abbink, “Ethiopia-Eritrea: Proxy Wars,” 408.

136 Paulos Tesfagiorgis, “Employee of the Month November 2019: Issayas Afewerki.” World Peace Foundation Blog, 4 November 2019. https://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2019/11/04/employee-of-the-month-november-2019-issayas-afewerki/ (Accessed 13 November 2023).

137 US Department of State, “Ethiopia Travel Advisory.” January 2021. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/ethiopia-travel-advisory.html (Accessed 4 July 2022).

138 Interview with a project coordinator at KFW Development Bank, March 2022.

139 Ball and Van de Goor, Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration, 2.

140 Interview with former leader, June 2020.

141 Ibid.

142 Interview with an advisor of NDRMC, June 2020.

143 Palik, “Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration in Ethiopia,” op. cit.