Predictive models and correlates of protection for testing biodefence vaccines

Abstract

The identification of immune correlates of protection is becoming increasingly important in order to derive a quantitative assessment of the benefit conferred by vaccination in clinical trials. The use of immune correlates of protection as an indirect measure of clinical efficacy is essential to achieve regulatory approval for vaccines for which clinical efficacy cannot be tested directly, for example, biodefence vaccines. The correlates apply to the specific vaccine formulation being developed; in general, if a statistically significant correlation is found between a measurable immunological readout and survival in authentic animal models of human infection, the same immunological readout can be defined and applied as a surrogate marker of protection in clinical studies. The surrogate markers of protection can then be used to predict the protective efficacy of a candidate vaccine in humans. This review summarizes some of the immune correlates data reported for biodefence vaccines as well as some of the analytical approaches that can be applied in order to predict clinical efficacy.

Keywords::

• biodefence
• immune correlates
• predictive models
• protection
• vaccines

Financial & competing interests disclosure

The authors have no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties.

No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript.