A chart to predict adult height from a child's current height

Abstract

Background: A child's adult height is commonly predicted using their target height, based on mid-parent height. However, if no growth disorder is suspected, the child's current height is a far better predictor of their adult height.

Aim: To develop a chart to predict a child's adult height from their current height, adjusting for regression to the mean.

Subjects and methods: Data from the First Zurich Longitudinal Growth Study provided correlations between child height and adult height by age and sex, for use in a regression model predicting adult height centile from child height centile. The model was validated using data from the British 1946 and 1958 birth cohorts.

Results: The chart is illustrated superimposed on the British 1990 boys height chart. The predicted height has a standard error of 4–5 cm for ages from 4 years to puberty in both sexes. The regression adjustment partially compensates for biased predictions in early and late developers in puberty. A simplified version of the chart for restricted age ranges is also shown, as used on the UK-WHO 0–4 years growth charts.

Conclusion: The height prediction chart should be of value for parents, and indirectly professionals, to predict adult height in their children.

Keywords::

• Height
• chart
• child
• adult
• prediction

Acknowledgements

We thank Theo Gasser and Luciano Molinari for pointing us to the reference containing the Zurich Growth Study child–adult correlations. Thank you too to the two reviewers for their comments on the paper. We also acknowledge the Child Growth Foundation for permission to reproduce the boys 0–20 years British 1990 height reference charts. We thank Linda Haines and staff in the RCPCH Science and Research Department for their support of the Growth Chart Project.

Declaration of Interest: TJC was funded by MRC project grant G0700961. Part of this work was undertaken at GOSH/UCL Institute of Child Health which received a proportion of funding from the Department of Health's NIHR Biomedical Research Centres funding scheme. TJC has received research funding from the Child Growth Foundation, which publishes the British 1990 height reference charts.