Latitude of Residence and Position in Time Zone are Predictors of Cancer Incidence, Cancer Mortality, and Life Expectancy at Birth

Abstract

According to the hypothesis of circadian disruption, external factors that disturb the function of the circadian system can raise the risk of malignant neoplasm and reduce life span. Recent work has shown that the functionality of the circadian system is dependent not only on latitude of residence but also on the region's position in the time zone. The purpose of the present research was to examine the influence of latitude and time zone on cancer incidence, cancer mortality, and life expectancy at birth. A stepwise multiple regression analysis was carried out on residents of 59 regions of the European part of the Russian Federation (EPRF) using age-standardized parameters (per 100,000) of cancer incidence (CI), cancer mortality (CM), and life expectancy at birth (LE, yrs) as dependent variables. The geographical coordinates (latitude and position in the time zone) of the regions were used as independent variables, controlling for the level of economic development in the regions. The same analysis was carried out for LE in 31 regions in China. Latitude was the strongest predictor of LE in the EPRF population; it explained 48% and 45% of the variability in LE of women and men, respectively. Position within the time zone accounted for an additional 4% and 3% variability of LE in women and men, respectively. The highest values for LE were observed in the southeast of the EPRF. In China, latitude was not a predictor of LE, whereas position in the time zone explained 15% and 18% of the LE variability in women and men, respectively. The highest values of LE were observed in the eastern regions of China. Both latitude and position within the time zone were predictors for CI and CM of the EPRF population. Latitude was the best predictor of stomach CI and CM; this predictor explained 46% and 50% of the variability, respectively. Position within the time zone was the best predictor of female breast CM; it explained 15% of the variability. In most cases, CI and CM increased with increasing latitude of residence, from the eastern to the western border of the time zone, and with increasing level of economic development within the region. The dependence of CI, CM, and LE on the geographical coordinates of residence is in agreement with the hypothesis of circadian disruption. (Author correspondence: [email protected])

Keywords:

• Cancer incidence
• Cancer mortality
• Cancer Predictor
• Latitude of residence
• Life expectancy at birth
• Position in time zone

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author is most grateful to the anonymous reviewers of this paper for helpful critical comments.