Trends in Consumption of Alcoholic Beverages and Policy Interventions in Europe: An Uncertainty “Associated” Perspective

Abstract

Having qualitatively investigated, both the temporal curves of alcoholic beverage consumption trends and the introduction of preventive alcohol policy measures in six European countries during the 1960s–2000s, drinking control policy measures often appeared to operate as co-factors of change, while during some periods of time they were not even present even if effective consumption changes were occurring. Study limitations are noted.

Keywords :

• alcoholic beverage preventive policy measures
• consumption curve
• qualitative method
• long alcohol waves
• time lag

THE AUTHORS

Allaman Allamani, M.D., Psychiatrist; Family Therapist; Researcher. He has been coordinator of the Alcohol Centre, Florence Health Agency (1993–2009); since 2009, he has been consultant to the Tuscany Regional Health Agency for research on social epidemiology and prevention policy, First non-alcoholic trustee of Italian Alcoholics Anonymous (1997–2003). He is a member of the editorial board of “Substance Use and Misuse.” Coordinator of a few Italian projects on alcohol prevention and policies, he has co-lead work-package 3 of the European Commission-funded AMPHORA project. Author and co-author of many articles, and editor and co-editor of 16 books.

Nadia Olimpi, M.D., She works at Epidemiology Observatory of Tuscany Regional Health Agency. She's co-author in reports of Regional Agency about the epidemiology of main lifestyle risk factors for health and scientific articles.

Pasquale Pepe, MSc, is a Senior Statistician at the Epidemiology Observatory of the Tuscany Regional Health Agency. He has worked for several years on medical statistics, clinical trials, and epidemiological studies. He has co-authored more than 30 articles. He has worked in the statistical analysis of data of the AMPHORA project.

Francesco Cipriani, MD, Medical epidemiologist, nutritionist, and gastroenterologist, is Director of the Tuscany Regional Health Agency (Italy) since October 2011, where he also has been chief of the Epidemiology Observatory since January 2009. He was Director of the Epidemiology Unit of the Local Health Authority in Prato, Italy, and also worked in the epidemiology services of the Florence Local Health Authority and the Centre for Oncological Study and Prevention, carrying out regional, national, and international multi-centric epidemiological studies about nutrition, life styles, addictions, alcohol and alcoholism, tumors, injuries, road traffic accidents, and environmental problems. He has published more than 130 studies.

Notes

1 It is useful to consider that the contemporary scientism ideology of collecting and moving from relevant, representative, measureable data, to appropriate methodological analysis which leads to knowing from which understanding can be created in order to effectively intervene, if and when necessary, can be flawed by the reality of studying within the realities of uncertainties, randomness, unpredictabilities, and lack of necessary controls over a myriad of known-visible, unknown-hidden, and unknowable interacting phenomenon and processes during any given time and place. The reader interested in the implications of such everpresent realities when planning, implementing, and assessing effective interventions are referred to: Diacu, Florin, 2010, Mega disasters: The science of predicting the next catastrophe. Princeton: Princeton University Press; Ormerod, Paul, (2005); Why most things fail: Evolution, extinction and economics. Faber & Faber, UK; Miller, Matt, (2010); The tyranny of dead ideas; New York: Henry Holt & Co; the work of the cyberneticist Heinz Von Foerster who posited that there are two types of questions: legitimate questions and illegitimate questions. The former are those for which the answer is not known. It is these questions, and the work which they stimulate, which are associated with breakthroughs in needed knowledge. An illegitimate question is one for which the answer is known. Answers are known to most questions which are traditionally asked. Heinz Von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot, “Doomsday; Friday, 13 November, A.D, 2026,” Science, 132, 1960. pp. 1291–1295, and the work of the urban planners Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber (1973) who suggested that problems can and should be usefully categorized into two types: “tame problems” and “wicked problems” The former are solved in a traditional linear analytic known and tried “water fall paradigm”; gather data, analyze data, formulate solution, implement solution. The latter “wicked problems” can only be responded to individually, each time anew, with no ultimate, repeatable solution. Rittel, H. and Webber, M. (1973). “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning”. Policy Sciences, Vol. 4, pp 155-169. Man's range of “appetites” are complex, dynamic, non-linear, multi-dimensional and bounded (time, place, “big events”, age, gender and gender identity, ethnicity, religion and religiosity, SEC, etc.) Editor's note.

2 Available on request to the authors.

3 Available on request to the authors.

4 Available on request to the authors.

5 Available on request to the authors.

6 Available on request to the authors.

7 This relatively new term, introduced into the intervention literature by Friedman et al. (Samuel R. Friedman, Diana Rossi, Peter L. Flom (2006). “Big events” and networks: Thoughts on what could be going on. Connections 27(1): 9–14.) refers to major events such as mega-–disasters, natural, as well as man-made, famine, conflict, genocide, disparities in health, epidemics, mass migrations, economic recessions, etc. which effect adaptation, functioning, and quality-of-life of individuals as well as systems. Existential threat, instability, and chaos are major dimensions and loss of control over one's life is experienced. Editor's note.