Alcohol Consumption and its Related Harms in the Netherlands Since 1960: Relationships With Planned and Unplanned Factors

Abstract

Aim: to establish which unplanned (social developments) and planned (alcohol policy measures) factors are related to per capita consumption and alcohol-related harms in the Netherlands. Methods: linear regression was used to establish which of the planned and unplanned factors were most strongly connected with alcohol consumption and harms. Artificial Neural Analysis (ANN) was used to inspect the interconnections between all variables. Results: mothers age at birth was most strongly associated with increase in consumption. The ban on selling alcoholic beverages at petrol station was associated with a decrease in consumption. The linear regression of harms did not show any relation between alcohol policy measures and harms. The ANN-analyses indicate a very high interconnectedness between all variables allowing no causal inferences. Exceptions are the relation between price of beer and wine and the consumption of these beverages and the relation between a decrease in transport mortality and the increased use of breathalyzers tests and a restriction of paracommercial selling. Conclusions: unplanned factors are most strongly associated with per capita consumption and harms. ANN-analysis indicates that price of alcoholic beverages, breath testing, and restriction of sales may have had some influence. The study's limitations are noted.

Keywords :

• alcohol policy measures
• social developments
• per capita consumption
• alcohol-related harms

THE AUTHORS

Ronald A.Knibbe, PhD is emeritus professor at Maastricht University, regional editor (Europe) for Drug and Alcohol Review and member of the research council of the National Monitor of Alcohol and Drug use. He has supervised many research projects in the field of Alcohol and Drug research and have been author or co-author of many papers. Two important subjects in his work are international comparisons of alcohol use and the relation between structure of everyday life and substance use.

Mieke Derciks, B.Sc, works as research assistant at Maastricht University, Department of Health Promotion and as curator art & heritage Council Maastricht University. Most of her work as research assistant is in the field of alcohol and drug research. Her expertise concerns methodology for collecting data, storing and analyzing data, and encompass both quantitative and qualitative research methods. She is co-author of many papers.

Allaman Allamani, M.D., is Psychiatrist, Family Therapist, and Researcher. He has been coordinator of the Alcohol Centre, Florence Health Agency (1993–2009); since 2009, he has been consultant to the Region of Tuscany Health Agency for research on social epidemiology and prevention policy First non-alcoholic trustee of Italian Alcoholics Anonymous (1997–2003). He is a member of the editorial board of “Substance Use and Misuse.” Coordinator of a few Italian projects on alcohol prevention and policies, he has co-lead work package 3 of the European Commission-funded AMPHORA project. Author and co-author of more than 170 articles, editor and co-editor of 16 books.

Giulia Massini Senior Researcher of Semeion—Research Center of Sciences of Communication, Rome (Italy). She is inventor of new algorithms of Neural Networks and Adaptive Artificial Systems. She's responsible of the application of Neural Computation mainly in medical and social field. She is author of many research software packages. She has published several scientific papers in peer reviewed journal and book chapters.

GLOSSARY