Abstract
Objective. To determine whether cervical length (CL) measurement at 11–14 weeks is predictive of preterm delivery (PTD).
Methods. This was a prospective study of a low-risk population of 1113 women, who underwent CL measurement at 11–14 weeks. Mean CL was calculated for deliveries at >37, <37 and <34 weeks. Cut-off limits of 27 mm and 30 mm were used to examine the predictive value of CL.
Results. Mean ± SD CL for the entire study population was 40.6 ± 5.5 mm. CL was analyzed for term and PTD (<37 weeks) and further analyzed for deliveries at 34–37 and <34 weeks. Mean CL was 38.9 ± 5.5 mm for PTD and 40.8 ± 5.5 mm for deliveries >37 weeks (p = 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed small predictive value of CL for PTD <37 weeks (sensitivity = 63.3% and specificity = 51.1%, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.54–0.66) (p = 0.001) and did not show any predictive value for PTD <35 weeks (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.43–0.67, p = 0.355) or PTD <32 weeks (AUC = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30–0.74, p = 0.851).
Conclusion. CL at 11–14 weeks does not appear to be predictive of PTD. Statistical analysis of CL did not show any predictive value for PTD <35 weeks, or <32 weeks and although it showed a predictive value for PTD at <37 weeks, the sensitivity was very low.
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Declaration of interest: The authors report no conflicts of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of the paper.