Identification of pregnancies at increased risk of brachial plexus birth palsy – the construction of a weighted risk score

Abstract

Objective: Since it is difficult to identify women at increased risk of fetal brachial plexus birth palsy (BPBP) during labor and delivery, we aimed to construct and validate a risk score.

Methods: A retrospective case-control study was undertaken in 2001 and 2006 in an urban context in Malmö, Sweden. A risk score was constructed for all women who had received routine municipal maternal health care at Skåne University Hospital (n = 10 459). The model was validated among all pregnant women with BPBP and controls in Sweden between 2006 and 2007.

Results: The likelihood of BPBP increased as the risk score rose: 3.1% of the women studied had a risk score ≥5, including 32.1% of the BPBP cases, where the risk showed a 38-fold increase, as compared to those with a risk score ≤1 (2/3 of the population).

Conclusion: Our findings indicate that it is possible to identify women at increased risk of having a child with BPBP by using variables observable in advance of delivery.

• Birth weight
• brachial plexus
• brachial plexus birth palsy
• prediction
• risk
• score
• shoulder dystocia