424
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
The effects on values, beliefs and attitudes

Increased support for collective defence in times of threat: European public opinion before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Pages 402-422 | Received 20 Sep 2023, Accepted 03 Jan 2024, Published online: 09 Jan 2024

References

  • Alexander, M. G., M. B. Brewer, and R. K. Hermann. 1999. “Images and Affect: A Functional Analysis of Out-Group Stereotypes.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (1): 78. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.1.78.
  • Althaus, S. L., and K. Coe. 2011. “Priming Patriots: Social Identity Processes and the Dynamics of Public Support for War.” Public Opinion Quarterly 75 (1): 65–88. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfq071.
  • Baracani, E. 2023. “Ideational Agenda-setting Leadership: President Von Der Leyen and the EU Response to the Invasion of Ukraine.” West European Politics, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2195759.
  • Benard, S., and L. Doan. 2011. “The Conflict–Cohesion Hypothesis: Past, Present, and Possible Futures.” In Advances in Group Processes, edited by S. R. Thye and E. J. Lawler, 189–225. Bingley: Emerald.
  • Brantly, A. 2024. “Forged in the Fires of War: The Rise of a New Ukrainian Identity.” Policy Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2023.2298800.
  • Brummer, K. 2007. “Superficial, Not Substantial: The Ambiguity of Public Support for Europe's Security and Defence Policy.” European Security 16 (2): 183–201. https://doi.org/10.1080/09662830701529794.
  • Converse, P. E. 1964. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics.” In Ideology and Discontent, edited by D. Apter, 206–261. New York: Free Press of Glencoe.
  • Cumming, G. 2009. “Inference by Eye: Reading the Overlap of Independent Confidence Intervals.” Statistics in Medicine 28 (2): 205–220. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.3471.
  • De Vries, C. E., S. B. Hobolt, and S. Walter. 2021. “Politicizing International Cooperation: The Mass Public, Political Entrepreneurs, and Political Opportunity Structures.” International Organization 75 (2): 306–332. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818320000491.
  • Eichenberg, R. C. 2003. “Trends: Having It Both Ways: European Defense Integration and the Commitment to NATO.” Public Opinion Quarterly 67 (4): 627–659. https://doi.org/10.1086/379087.
  • European Commission. 2022. “Eurobarometer 96.3.” GESIS, Köln. ZA7848 Data file Version 1.0.0. https://doi.org/10.4232/1.13908.
  • European Commission. 2023. “Eurobarometer 97.5.” GESIS, Köln. ZA7902 Data file Version 1.0.0. https://doi.org/10.4232/1.14010.
  • Everts, P., and P. Isernia. 2015. Public Opinion, Transatlantic Relations and the Use of Force. Basingstoke: Palgrave.
  • Fagan, M., J. Poushter, and S. Gubbala. 2023. “Large Shares See Russia and Putin in Negative Light, while Views of Zelenskyy More Mixed.” Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/07/PG_2023.07.10_Russia-NATO_Report.pdf.
  • Fernández, Ó, M. Vandendriessche, A. Saz-Carranza, N. Agell, and J. Franco. 2023. “The Impact of Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine on Public Perceptions of EU Security and Defence Integration: A Big Data Analysis.” Journal of European Integration 45 (3): 463–485. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2023.2183392.
  • Gehring, K. 2022. “Can External Threats Foster a European Union Identity? Evidence from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.” The Economic Journal 132 (644): 1489–1516. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab088
  • Genschel, P., L. Leek, and J. Weyns. 2023. “War and Integration. The Russian attack on Ukraine and the Institutional Development of the EU.” Journal of European Integration 45 (3): 343–360. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2023.2183397
  • Graf, T. 2020. “Unity in the Face of Threat? Exploring the Empirical Relationship between Strategic Threat Perceptions and Public Support for a Common European Army in Germany.” European Security 29 (1): 55–73. https://doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2019.1704267
  • Graf, T., M. Steinbrecher, and H. Biehl. 2023. “From Reluctance to Reassurance: Explaining the Shift in the Germans’ NATO Alliance Solidarity Following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.” Contemporary Security Policy, 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2023.2286771.
  • Gravelle, T. B., J. Reifler, and T. J. Scotto. 2017. “The Structure of Foreign Policy Attitudes in Transatlantic Perspective: Comparing the United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany.” European Journal of Political Research 56 (4): 757–776. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12197.
  • Herrmann, R. K. 2013. “Perceptions and Image Theory in International Theory.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, edited by L. Huddy, D. O. Sears, and J. S. Levy, 334–363. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Hurwitz, J., and M. Peffley. 1987. “How Are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model.” American Political Science Review 81 (4): 1099–1120. https://doi.org/10.2307/1962580.
  • Ibbetson, C. 2022. “EuroTrack: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Seen as Likely, But Few Want Their Country to Defend Them.” YouGov.co.uk. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/31/eurotrack-russian-invasion-ukraine-seen-likely-few.
  • Irondelle, B., F. Mérand, and M. Foucault. 2015. “Public Support for European Defence: Does Strategic Culture Matter?” European Journal of Political Research 54 (2): 363–383. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12090.
  • Kam, C. D., and J. M. Ramos. 2008. “Joining and Leaving the Rally: Understanding the Surge and Decline in Presidential Approval Following 9/11.” Public Opinion Quarterly 72 (4): 619–650. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfn055.
  • Mader, M., K. Gavras, S. Hofmann, J. Reifler, H. Schoen, and C. Thomson. 2023. “International Threats and Support for European Security and Defence Integration: Evidence from 25 Countries.” European Journal of Political Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12605.
  • Mader, M., F. Olmastroni, and P. Isernia. 2020. “The Polls—Trends: Public Opinion towards European Defence Policy and Nato: Still Wanting It Both Ways?” Public Opinion Quarterly 84 (2): 551–582. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfaa031.
  • Mader, M., and H. Schoen. 2023. “No Zeitenwende (Yet): Early Assessment of German Public Opinion towards Foreign and Defence Policy after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.” Politische Vierteljahresschrift 64 (3): 525–547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-023-00463-5.
  • Meijer, H., and S. G. Brooks. 2021. “Illusions of Autonomy: Why Europe Cannot Provide For Its Security if the United States Pulls Back.” International Security 45 (4): 7–43. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00405.
  • Myrick, R. 2021. “Do External Threats Unite or Divide? Security Crises, Rivalries, and Polarization in American Foreign Policy.” International Organization 75 (4): 921–958. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000175.
  • NATO Public Diplomacy Division. 2023. NATO Audience Research: pre-Summit polling results 2023. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2023/7/pdf/2300707-pre-summit-research-2023.pdf.
  • Norman, P., H. Boer, E. R. Seydel, and B. Mullan. 2015. “Protection Motivation Theory.” In Predicting and Changing Health Behaviour: Research and Practice with Social Cognition Models, edited by M. Conner and P. Norman, 70–106. Maidenhead: Open University Press.
  • Pennisi di Floristella, A., and X. Chen. 2023. “Strategic Narratives of Russia’s War in Ukraine: Perspectives from China.” Policy Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2023.2276116.
  • Schulte-Cloos, J., and L. Dražanová. 2023. “Shared Identity in Crisis: A Comparative Study of Support for the EU in the Face of the Russian Threat.” RSC Working Paper, 2023/48. https://hdl.handle.net/1814/75845.
  • Sherif, M., and C. W. Sherif. 1953. Groups in Harmony and Tension; An Integration of Studies of Intergroup Relations. New York: Harper & Brothers.
  • Simmel, G. 1955. Conflict and the Web of Group-Affiliations. New York: Free Press.
  • Sinnott, R. 2000. “Knowledge and the Position of Attitudes to a European Foreign Policy on the Real-to-random Continuum.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 12 (2): 113–137. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/12.2.113.
  • Smith, M. 2022. “Support for EU Army Grows across Europe Following Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” YouGov.co.uk. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2022/05/05/support-eu-army-grows-across-europe-following-russ.
  • Stein, A. A. 1976. “Conflict and Cohesion: A Review of the Literature.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 20 (1): 143–172. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200277602000106.
  • Steiner, N. D., R. Berlinschi, E. Farvaque, J. Fidrmuc, P. Harms, A. Mihailov, … P. Stanek. 2023. “Rallying around the EU Flag: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Attitudes towards European Integration.” JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies 61 (2): 283–301. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13449.
  • Stolle, D. 2023. “Aiding Ukraine in the Russian War: Unity or New Dividing Line among Europeans?” European Political Science, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-023-00444-7.
  • Tajfel, H., and J. C. Turner. 1984. “The Social Identity Theory of Intergroup Behavior.” In Psychology of Intergroup Relations, edited by S. Worchel and W. G. Austin, 7–24. Chicago: Nelson-Hall.
  • Thomson, C., M. Mader, F. Münchow, J. Reifler, and H. Schoen. 2023. “European Public Opinion: United in Supporting Ukraine, Divided on the Future of NATO.” International Affairs 99 (6): 2485–2500. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiad241.
  • Tidey, A. 2022. “Like NATO, the EU has a Mutual Defence Clause but Trust Appears Low.” Euronews, June 7, 2022. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/06/07/like-nato-the-eu-has-a-mutual-defence-clause-but-trust-appears-low.
  • Tomz, M., J. L. Weeks, and K. Bansak. 2023. “How Membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Transforms Public Support for War.” PNAS Nexus 2 (7): pgad206. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad206.
  • Turner, J. C., M. A. Hogg, P. J. Oakes, S. D. Reicher, and M. S. Wetherell. 1987. Rediscovering the Social Group: A Self-categorization Theory. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Vilmer, J. P. J. 2022. “Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, But We Might Too.” War on the Rocks, March 2, 2022. https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putin-loses-no-matter-how-this-plays-out-but-we-might-too/.
  • Wang, C., and A. D. Moise. 2023. “A Unified Autonomous Europe? Public Opinion of the EU's Foreign and Security Policy.” Journal of European Public Policy, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2023.2217230.
  • Way, L. A. 2022. “The Rebirth of the Liberal World Order?” Journal of Democracy 33 (2): 5–17. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0014.
  • Youngs, R. 2022. “Autocracy versus Democracy after the Ukraine Invasion: Mapping a Middle Way.” Carnegie Europe, 20 July 2022. https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/07/20/autocracy-versus-democracy-after-ukraine-invasion-mapping-middle-way-pub-87525.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.