685
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Ethnic politics and sovereign credit risk

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 589-621 | Received 31 Jul 2022, Accepted 30 May 2023, Published online: 17 Jul 2023

References

  • Abbas, S. M. A., & Rogoff, K. (2019). A guide to sovereign debt data. Technical report, International Monetary Fund.
  • Achtenberg, E., & Currents, R. (2012). Bolivia returns to the global bond market. https://n acla.org/blog/2012/11/2/bolivia-returns-global-bond-market
  • Ahlerup, P., & Olsson, O. (2012). The roots of ethnic diversity. Journal of Economic Growth, 17(2), 71–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9075-0
  • Alesina, A., Baqir, R., & Easterly, W. (1999). Public goods and ethnic divisions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(4), 1243–1284. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399556269
  • Alesina, A., Michalopoulos, S., & Papaioannou, E. (2016). Ethnic inequality. The Journal of Political Economy, 124(2), 428–488. https://doi.org/10.1086/685300
  • Alesina, A. F., & Sachs, J. D. (1988). Political parties and the business cycle in the United States, 1948–1984. Journal of money, credit and banking, 20, 63–82.
  • Alesina, A., & Zhuravskaya, E. (2011). Segregation and the quality of government in a cross section of countries. American Economic Review, 101(5), 1872–1911. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.5.1872
  • Alt, J. E., & Lassen, D. D. (2006). Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries. European Economic Review, 50(6), 1403–1439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2005.04.001
  • Annett, A. (2001). Social fractionalization, political instability, and the size of government. IMF Staff Papers, 561–592.
  • Archer, C. C., Biglaiser, G., & DeRouen, K. (2007). Sovereign bonds and the “democratic advantage”: Does regime type affect credit rating agency ratings in the developing world? International Organization, 61(02), 341–365. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818307070129
  • Asonuma, T., & Trebesch, C. (2016). Sovereign debt restructurings: Preemptive or post-default. Journal of the European Economic Association, 14(1), 175–214. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12156
  • Auerbach, A. M., Bussell, J., Chauchard, S., Jensenius, F. R., Nellis, G., Schneider, M., Sircar, N., Suryanarayan, P., Thachil, T., Vaishnav, M., Verma, R., & Ziegfeld, A. (2022). Rethinking the study of electoral politics in the developing world: Reflections on the Indian case. Perspectives on Politics, 20(1), 250–264. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592721000062
  • Baldwin, K., & Huber, J. D. (2010). Economic versus cultural differences: Forms of ethnic diversity and public goods provision. American Political Science Review, 104(4), 644–662. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055410000419
  • Ballard-Rosa, C. (2020). Democracy, dictatorship, and default: Urban-rural bias and economic crises across regimes. Cambridge University Press.
  • Ballard-Rosa, C., Mosley, L., & Wellhausen, R. L. (2021). Contingent advantage? Sovereign borrowing, democratic institutions and global capital cycles. British Journal of Political Science, 51(1), 353–373. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123418000455
  • Ballard-Rosa, C., Mosley, L., & Wellhausen, R. L. (2022). Coming to terms: The politics of sovereign bond denomination. International Organization, 76(1), 32–69. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000357
  • Bansak, K., Bechtel, M. M., & Margalit, Y. (2021). Why austerity? The mass politics of a contested policy. American Political Science Review, 115(2), 486–505. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420001136
  • Barta, Z., & Johnston, A. (2018). Rating politics? Partisan discrimination in credit ratings in developed economies. Comparative Political Studies, 51(5), 587–620. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414017710263
  • Barta, Z., & Johnston, A. (2021). Entitlements in the crosshairs: How sovereign credit ratings judge the welfare state in advanced market economies. Review of International Political Economy, 28(5), 1169–1195. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2020.1756895
  • Barta, Z., & Makszin, K. (2021). The politics of creditworthiness: Political and policy commentary in sovereign credit rating reports. Journal of Public Policy, 41(2), 307–330. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0143814X20000033
  • Bawn, K., & Rosenbluth, F. (2006). Short versus long coalitions: Electoral accountability and the size of the public sector. American Journal of Political Science, 50(2), 251–265. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00182.x
  • BBC. (2017). Bolivia’s morales boosts legal coca production. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39214085.
  • Beaulieu, E., Cox, G. W., & Saiegh, S. (2012). Sovereign debt and regime type: Reconsidering the democratic advantage. International Organization, 66(4), 709–738. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818312000288
  • Bechtel, M. M. (2009). The political sources of systematic investment risk: Lessons from a consensus democracy. The Journal of Politics, 71(2), 661–677. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609090525
  • Beiser-McGrath, J., & Beiser-McGrath, L. F. (2020). Problems with products? Control strategies for models with interaction and quadratic effects. Political Science Research and Methods, 8(4), 707–730. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2020.17
  • Beiser-McGrath, J., Müller-Crepon, C., & Pengl, Y. I. (2021). Who benefits? How local ethnic demography shapes political favoritism in Africa. British Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 1582–1600. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000241
  • Best, J., Hay, C., LeBaron, G., & Mügge, D. (2021). Seeing and not-seeing like a political economist: The historicity of contemporary political economy and its blind spots. New Political Economy, 26(2), 217–228. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2020.1841143
  • Biglaiser, G., & Staats, J. L. (2012). Finding the “democratic advantage” in sovereign bond ratings: The importance of strong courts, property rights protection, and the rule of law. International Organization, 66(3), 515–535. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818312000185
  • Blackwell, M., & Olson, M. P. (2022). Reducing model misspecification and bias in the estimation of interactions. Political Analysis, 30(4), 495–514. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.19
  • Block, S. A., & Vaaler, P. M. (2004). The price of democracy: Sovereign risk ratings, bond spreads and political business cycles in developing countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 23(6), 917–946. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2004.05.001
  • Boone, C., Wahman, M., Kyburz, S., & Linke, A. (2022). Regional cleavages in African politics: Persistent electoral blocs and territorial oppositions. Political Geography, 99, 102741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2022.102741
  • Borensztein, E., & Panizza, U. (2009). The costs of sovereign default. IMF Staff Papers, 56(4), 683–741. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfsp.2009.21
  • Bormann, N.-C., Cederman, L.-E., Gates, S., Graham, B. A., Hug, S., Strøm, K. W., & Wucherpfennig, J. (2019). Power sharing: Institutions, behavior, and peace. American Journal of Political Science, 63(1), 84–100. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12407
  • Bottazzi, P., & Rist, S. (2012). Changing land rights means changing society: The sociopolitical effects of agrarian reforms under the government of Evo Morales. Journal of Agrarian Change, 12(4), 528–551. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-0366.2012.00367.x
  • Brooks, S. M., Cunha, R., & Mosley, L. (2015). Categories, creditworthiness, and contagion: How investors’ shortcuts affect sovereign debt markets. International Studies Quarterly, 59(3), 587–601. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12173
  • Brooks, S. M., Cunha, R., & Mosley, L. (2022). Sovereign risk and government change: Elections, ideology and experience. Comparative Political Studies, 55(9), 1501–1538. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140211047407
  • Broz, J. L. (2013). Partisan financial cycles. In M. Kahler & D. A. Lake (Eds.), Politics in the new hard times: The great recession in comparative perspective (pp. 75–101). Cornell University Press.
  • Bun, M. J., & Harrison, T. D. (2019). OLS and IV estimation of regression models including endogenous interaction terms. Econometric Reviews, 38(7), 814–827. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2018.1427486
  • Burgess, R., Jedwab, R., Miguel, E., Morjaria, A., & Padró I Miquel, G. (2015). The value of democracy: Evidence from road building in Kenya. American Economic Review, 105(6), 1817–1851. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20131031
  • Campello, D. (2015). The politics of market discipline in Latin America: Globalization and democracy. Cambridge University Press.
  • Carlson, E. (2015). Ethnic voting and accountability in Africa: A choice experiment in Uganda. World Politics, 67(2), 353–385. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887115000015
  • Chandra, K. (2005). Ethnic parties and democratic stability. Perspectives on Politics, 3(02), 235–252. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592705050188
  • Chari, V. V., Dovis, A., & Kehoe, P. J. (2020). On the optimality of financial repression. Journal of Political Economy, 128(2), 710–739. https://doi.org/10.1086/704575
  • Charney, C. (1984). Class conflict and the national party split. Journal of Southern African Studies, 10(2), 269–282. https://doi.org/10.1080/03057078408708082
  • Copelovitch, M., Gandrud, C., & Hallerberg, M. (2018). Financial data transparency, international institutions, and sovereign borrowing costs. International Studies Quarterly, 62(1), 23–41. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqx082
  • Cormier, B. (2023). Partisan external borrowing in middle income countries. British Journal of Political Science, 53(2), 717–727.
  • Cotoc, I., Johri, A., & Sosa-Padilla, C. (2021). Sovereign spreads and the political leaning of nations. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Crabtree, J. (2017). Indigenous empowerment in Evo Morales’s Bolivia. Current History, 116(787), 55–60. https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2017.116.787.55
  • Curtis, K. A., Jupille, J., & Leblang, D. (2014). Iceland on the rocks: The mass political economy of sovereign debt resettlement. International Organization, 68(3), 721–740. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818314000034
  • Dasgupta, A., & Ziblatt, D. (2021). Capital meets democracy: The impact of franchise extension on sovereign bond markets. American Journal of Political Science, 66(3), 630–647.
  • DiGiuseppe, M., & Shea, P. E. (2015). Sovereign credit and the fate of leaders: Reassessing the “democratic advantage”. International Studies Quarterly, 59(3), 557–570. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12181
  • DiGiuseppe, M., & Shea, P. E. (2019). The devil’s haircut: Investor–state disputes over debt restructuring. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(8), 1889–1922. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002718811531
  • Dubois, E. (2016). Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus. Public Choice, 166(1–2), 235–259. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0313-z
  • Durham, M., Power, M., & Furlong, P. J. (2010). The National Party of South Africa: A transnational perspective. In M. Durham & M. Power (Eds.), New perspectives on the transnational right (pp. 67–84). Palgrave MacMillan.
  • Eaton, J., & Gersovitz, M. (1981). Debt with potential repudiation: Theoretical and empirical analysis. The Review of Economic Studies, 48(2), 289–309. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296886
  • Ejdemyr, S., Kramon, E., & Robinson, A. L. (2018). Segregation, ethnic favoritism, and the strategic targeting of local public goods. Comparative Political Studies, 51(9), 1111–1143. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414017730079
  • Eslava, M. (2011). The political economy of fiscal deficits: A survey. Journal of Economic Surveys, 25(4), 645–673. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2010.00647.x
  • Fearon, J. D., & Laitin, D. D. (1996). Explaining interethnic cooperation. American Political Science Review, 90(4), 715–735. https://doi.org/10.2307/2945838
  • Fearon, J. D. (1999). Why ethnic politics and ‘pork’ tend to go together. In An SSRC-MacArthur Sponsored Conference on “Ethnic Politics and Democratic Stability,” University of Chicago.
  • Fiske, E., & Ladd, H. (2006). Racial equity in education: How far has South Africa come? Perspectives in Education, 24(2), 95–108.
  • Franck, R., & Rainer, I. (2012). Does the leader’s ethnicity matter? Ethnic favoritism, education, and health in sub-Saharan Africa. American Political Science Review, 106(2), 294–325. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000172
  • Gleditsch, N. P., Wallensteen, P., Eriksson, M., Sollenberg, M., & Strand, H. (2002). Armed conflict 1946-2001: A new dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 39(5), 615–637. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343302039005007
  • Golden, M., & Min, B. (2013). Distributive politics around the world. Annual Review of Political Science, 16(1), 73–99. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052209-121553
  • Gören, E. (2014). How ethnic diversity affects economic growth. World Development, 59, 275–297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.01.012
  • Hainmueller, J., Mummolo, J., & Xu, Y. (2019). How much should we trust estimates from multiplicative interaction models? Simple tools to improve empirical practice. Political Analysis, 27(2), 163–192. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2018.46
  • Helleiner, E. (2022). Silences of Bretton Woods: Gender inequality, racial discrimination and environmental degradation. Review of International Political Economy, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2144408
  • Hicks, D. L., Maldonado, B., Piper, B., & Goytia Rios, A. (2018). Identity, patronage, and redistribution: Economic inequality in Bolivia under Evo Morales. Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, 1(1), 26–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41996-018-0005-9
  • Hodler, R., & Raschky, P. A. (2014). Regional favoritism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(2), 995–1033. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qju004
  • Hopkins, D. J. (2009). The diversity discount: When increasing ethnic and racial diversity prevents tax increases. The Journal of Politics, 71(1), 160–177. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381608090105
  • Horowitz, D. L. (2000). Ethnic groups in conflict, updated edition with a new preface. University of California Press.
  • Huber, J. D. (2012). Measuring ethnic voting: Do proportional electoral laws politicize ethnicity? American Journal of Political Science, 56(4), 986–1001. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00601.x
  • Huber, J. D. (2017). Exclusion by elections: Inequality, ethnic identity, and democracy. Cambridge University Press.
  • Ichino, N., & Nathan, N. L. (2013). Crossing the line: Local ethnic geography and voting in ghana. American Political Science Review, 107(2), 344–361. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000664
  • Jones, S., & Inggs, J. (1994). An overview of the South African economy in the 1980s. South African Journal of Economic History, 9(2), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/20780389.1994.10417229
  • Kaplan, S. B., & Thomsson, K. (2017). The political economy of sovereign debt: Global finance and electoral cycles. The Journal of Politics, 79(2), 605–623. https://doi.org/10.1086/688441
  • Koch, S. F., Schoeman, N. J., & Tonder, J. J. (2005). Economic growth and the structure of taxes in South Africa: 1960–2002. The South African Journal of Economics, 73(2), 190–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2005.00013.x
  • Kramon, E. (2018). Money for votes: The causes and consequences of electoral clientelism in Africa. Cambridge University Press.
  • LeBaron, G., Mügge, D., Best, J., & Hay, C. (2021). Blind spots in IPE: Marginalized perspectives and neglected trends in contemporary capitalism. Review of International Political Economy, 28(2), 283–294. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2020.1830835
  • Lowenberg, A. D. (1997). Why South Africa’s apartheid economy failed. Contemporary Economic Policy, 15(3), 62–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1997.tb00478.x
  • Lührmann, A., Düpont, N., Higashijima, M., Kavasogly, Y., Marquardt, K. L., Bernhard, M., Döring, H., Hicken, A., Laebens, M., & Lindberg, S. (2020). Varieties of Party Identity and Organization (V-Party) Dataset V1.
  • Madrid, R. L. (2008). The rise of ethnopopulism in Latin America. World Politics, 60(3), 475–508. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887100009060
  • Mariotti, M., & Fourie, J. (2014). The economics of apartheid: An introduction. Economic History of Developing Regions, 29(2), 113–125. https://doi.org/10.1080/20780389.2014.958298
  • Mosley, L. (2000). Room to move: International financial markets and national welfare states. International Organization, 54(4), 737–773. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081800551352
  • Mousseau, D. Y. (2001). Democratizing with ethnic divisions: A source of conflict? Journal of Peace Research, 38(5), 547–567. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343301038005001
  • Neuman, W. (2014). Turnabout in Bolivia as economy rises from instability. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/17/world/americas/turnabout-in-bolivia-as-economy-rises-from-instability.html.
  • Nooruddin, I. (2008). The political economy of national debt burdens, 1970–2000. International Interactions, 34(2), 156–185. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050620802083228
  • Pettersson, T., Davies, S., Deniz, A., Engström, G., Hawach, N., Högbladh, S., & Öberg, M. S. M. (2021). Organized violence 1989–2020, with a special emphasis on Syria. Journal of Peace Research, 58(4), 809–825. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211026126
  • Peyton, B., Bajjalieh, J., Shalmon, D., Martin, M., & Bonaguro, J. (2021). Cline Center Coup D’état Project Dataset. The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, https://doi.org/10.13012/B2IDB-9651987_V2
  • Posner, D. N. (2005). Institutions and ethnic politics in Africa. Cambridge University Press.
  • Ratings, F. (2010). Fitch upgrades Bolivia to ‘B+’; outlook stable. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-upgrades-bolivia-to-b-outlook-stable-05-10-2010.
  • Robinson, A. L. (2020). Ethnic diversity, segregation and ethnocentric trust in Africa. British Journal of Political Science, 50(1), 217–239. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123417000540
  • Roos, J. E. (2019). Why Not Default? Princeton University Press.
  • Sattler, T. (2013). Do markets punish left governments? The Journal of Politics, 75(2), 343–356. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000054
  • Scartascini, C., Cruz, C., & Keefer, P. (2018). The database of political institutions 2017 (DPI2017).
  • Schipani, A. (2009). Bolivia rejects ‘savage capitalism’. https://www.ft.com/content/4b3b2d70-e13d-11de-af7a-00144feab49a.
  • Schipani, A. (2012). Bolivia tests market with $500m bond issue. https://www.ft.com/content/42cd5bd6-3a46-3067-ad46-56448b755e9f.
  • Schipani, A. (2014). S&P upgrades Bolivia amid upbeat growth outlook. https://www.ft.com/content/f04f7a4a-36be-349e-8165-291c4e10a8c2.
  • Shoukry Rashad, A., Fathy Sharaf, M., & Mansour, E. H. (2019). Does income inequality increase violence against women? an instrumental variable approach. The European Journal of Development Research, 31(4), 779–808. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-018-0187-7
  • Simkins, C., Hendrie, D., Abedian, I., & Le Roux, P. (1985). Justice, development and the national budget.
  • Sinclair, T. J. (2018). The new masters of capital: American bond rating agencies and the politics of creditworthiness. Cornell University Press.
  • Singh, P., & Vom Hau, M. (2016). Ethnicity in time: Politics, history, and the relationship between ethnic diversity and public goods provision. Comparative Political Studies, 49(10), 1303–1340. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414016633231
  • Smith, D. M. (1992). Redistribution after apartheid: Who gets what where in the new South Africa. Area, 24(4), 350–358.
  • Stasavage, D. (2007). Partisan politics and public debt: The importance of the ‘Whig Supremacy’ for Britain’s financial revolution. European Review of Economic History, 11(1), 123–153. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1361491606001900
  • Tomz, M. (2007). Reputation and international cooperation: Sovereign debt across three centuries. Princeton University Press.
  • Vaaler, P. M., Schrage, B. N., & Block, S. A. (2006). Elections, opportunism, partisanship and sovereign ratings in developing countries. Review of Development Economics, 10(1), 154–170. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2005.00307.x
  • Vadlamannati, K. C., Østmoe, G. M. G., & de Soysa, I. (2014). Do IMF programs disrupt ethnic peace? An empirical analysis, 1985–2006. Journal of Peace Research, 51(6), 711–725. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343314538478
  • Van der Berg, S. (2014). The transition from apartheid: Social spending shifts preceded political reform. Economic History of Developing Regions, 29(2), 234–244. https://doi.org/10.1080/20780389.2014.955277
  • Vogt, M., Bormann, N.-C., Rüegger, S., Cederman, L.-E., Hunziker, P., & Girardin, L. (2015). Integrating data on ethnicity, geography, and conflict: The ethnic power relations data set family. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 59(7), 1327–1342. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715591215
  • Wegenast, T. C., & Basedau, M. (2014). Ethnic fractionalization, natural resources and armed conflict. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 31(4), 432–457. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894213508692
  • World Development Indicators. (2019). World development indicators 2019. The World Bank.
  • Zeitz, A. O. (2022). Global capital cycles and market discipline: Perceptions of developing-country borrowers. British Journal of Political Science, 52(4), 1944–1953. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123421000405
  • Ziff, A., Abadeer, A., Barnum, M., Chu, J., Jao, N., Zaragoza, M., & Graham, B. A. (2021, September 15). De jure powersharing 1975–2019: Updating the inclusion, dispersion and constraints dataset. Dispersion and Constraints Dataset.