167
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Analyzing the nexus between pandemic, policy uncertainty, and international tourists’ behavior in Taiwan

分析流行病、政策不确定性与台湾国际游客行为之间的关系

ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 212-240 | Received 07 Aug 2022, Accepted 21 Dec 2022, Published online: 07 Mar 2023

References

  • Abbas, J., Mubeen, R., Iorember, P. T., Raza, S., & Mamirkulova, G. (2021). Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on tourism: Transformational potential and implications for a sustainable recovery of the travel and leisure industry. Current Research in Behavioral Sciences, 2, 100033. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crbeha.2021.100033
  • Al-Mulali, U., Gholipour, H. F., & Al-Hajj, E. (2020). The nonlinear effects of oil prices on tourism arrivals in Malaysia. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(8), 942–946. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1586844
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
  • Balcilar, M., Aghazadeh, S., & Ike, G. N. (2021). Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries. Tourism Economics, 27(5), 971–990. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620910929
  • Balcilar, M., Roubaud, D., Uzuner, G., & Wohar, M. E. (2021). Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 76, 114–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.05.011
  • Bassil, C., Saleh, A. S., & Anwar, S. (2019). Terrorism and tourism demand: A case study of Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(1), 50–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2017.1397609
  • Becken, S. (2008). Developing indicators for managing tourism in the face of peak oil. Tourism Management, 29(4), 695–705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.012
  • Becken, S., & Khazai, B. (2017). Resilience, tourism and disasters. In R. Butler (Ed.), Tourism and resilience (pp. 96–104). CABI.
  • Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x
  • Buckley, P. J., & Klemm, M. (1993). The decline of tourism in Northern Ireland: The causes. Tourism Management, 14(3), 184–194. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5177(93)90019-H
  • Bulut, U., Kocak, E., & Suess, C. (2020). The effect of freedom on international tourism demand: Empirical evidence from the top eight most visited countries. Tourism Economics, 26(8), 1358–1373. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619896957
  • Chi, J. (2021). Is there complementarity or substitutability among Hawaiian islands? Evidence from the autoregressive distributed lag approach. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(14), 2013–2027. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1812542
  • Cró, S., & Martins, A. M. (2017). Structural breaks in international tourism demand: Are they caused by crises or disasters? Tourism Management, 63, 3–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.05.009
  • Davis, S. J. (2016). An index of global economic policy uncertainty (No. w22740). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w22740.
  • De Mello, M. M., & Fortuna, N. (2005). Testing alternative dynamic systems for modelling tourism demand. Tourism Economics, 11(4), 517–537. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000005775108719
  • Dogru, T., Isik, C., & Sirakaya-Turk, E. (2019). The balance of trade and exchange rates: Theory and contemporary evidence from tourism. Tourism Management, 74, 12–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.01.014
  • El Menyari, Y. (2021). Effect of tourism FDI and international tourism to the economic growth in Morocco: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 13(2), 222–242. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2020.1771567
  • Farmaki, A., Miguel, C., Drotarova, M. H., Aleksić, A., Časni, A. Č., & Efthymiadou, F. (2020). Impacts of Covid-19 on peer-to-peer accommodation platforms: Host perceptions and responses. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 91, 102663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2020.102663
  • Fennell, D. A. (2017). Towards a model of travel fear. Annals of Tourism Research, 66, 140–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.07.015
  • Fountas, S., Karatasi, P., & Tzika, P. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty in Greece: Measuring uncertainty for the Greek macroeconomy. South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 16(1), 79–92.
  • Garza-Rodriguez, J. (2019). Tourism and poverty reduction in Mexico: An ARDL cointegration approach. Sustainability, 11(3), 845. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030845
  • Gholipour, H. F., Tajaddini, R., & Nguyen, J. (2016). Happiness and inbound tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 57, 251–253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2015.12.003
  • Ghosh, S. (2022). Modelling inbound international tourism demand in Australia: Lessons from the pandemics. International Journal of Tourism Research, 24(1), 71–81. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2483
  • Goldman, O. S., & Neubauer-Shani, M. (2017). Does international tourism affect transnational terrorism? Journal of Travel Research, 56(4), 451–467. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287516649059
  • Gössling, S., Scott, D., & Hall, C. M. (2020). Pandemics, tourism and global change: A rapid assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 29(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708
  • Gozgor, G., Seetaram, N., & Lau, C. K. M. (2021). Effect of global uncertainty on international arrivals by purpose of visits and length of stay. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(6), 1086–1098. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2464
  • Gretzel, U., Fuchs, M., Baggio, R., Hoepken, W., Law, R., Neidhardt, J., Pesonen, J., Xiang, Z., and Xiang, Z. (2020). E-Tourism beyond COVID-19: A call for transformative research. Information Technology & Tourism, 22(2), 187–203. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40558-020-00181-3
  • Hall, C. M., Scott, D., & Gössling, S. (2020). Pandemics, transformations and tourism: Be careful what you wish for. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 577–598. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1759131
  • Hassani, H., Ghodsi, M., Huang, X., & Silva, E. S. (2021). Is there a causal relationship between oil prices and tourist arrivals? Journal of Applied Statistics, 48(1), 191–202. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2020.1720625
  • Huang, J. H., & Min, J. C. (2002). Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism: The Taiwan case. Tourism Management, 23(2), 145–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(01)00051-6
  • Husein, J., & Kara, S. M. (2020). Nonlinear ARDL estimation of tourism demand for Puerto Rico from the USA. Tourism Management, 77, 103998. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.103998
  • International Air Transport Association. (2011). Annual report 2011. Retrieved July 19, 2021, from https://www.iata.org/contentassets/c81222d96c9a4e0bb4ff6ced0126f0bb/annual-report-2011.pdf
  • Işık, C., Sirakaya-Turk, E., & Ongan, S. (2020). Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence. Tourism Economics, 26(8), 1344–1357. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619888346
  • Istiak, K., & Serletis, A. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty and real output: Evidence from the G7 countries. Applied Economics, 50(39), 4222–4233. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1441520
  • Jalil, A., Mahmood, T., & Idrees, M. (2013). Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests. Economic Modelling, 35, 185–191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.034
  • Jayasinghe, M., Selvanathan, S., & Selvanathan, E. A. (2021). The Asian Tsunami and tourism industry: Impact and recovery. In C. Taha (Ed.), Economic effects of natural disasters (pp. 335–358). Elsevier.
  • Jiang, Y., Ritchie, B. W., & Benckendorff, P. (2019). Bibliometric visualisation: An application in tourism crisis and disaster management research. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(16), 1925–1957. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2017.1408574
  • Jin, X. C., Qu, M., & Bao, J. (2019). Impact of crisis events on Chinese outbound tourist flow: A framework for post-events growth. Tourism Management, 74, 334–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.04.011
  • Kim, J., & Lee, C. K. (2017). Role of tourism price in attracting international tourists: The case of Japanese inbound tourism from South Korea. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 6(1), 76–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2016.03.002
  • Kock, F., Josiassen, A., & Assaf, A. G. (2016). Advancing destination image: The destination content model. Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 28–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2016.07.003
  • Kourentzes, N., Saayman, A., Jean-Pierre, P., Provenzano, D., Sahli, M., Seetaram, N., & Volo, S. (2021). Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team. Annals of Tourism Research, 88, 103197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2021.103197
  • Kumar, N., Kumar, R. R., Patel, A., Hussain Shahzad, S. J., & Stauvermann, P. J. (2020). Modelling inbound international tourism demand in small Pacific Island countries. Applied Economics, 52(10), 1031–1047. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1646887
  • Lanouar, C., & Goaied, M. (2019). Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models. Tourism Management, 70, 404–418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.09.002
  • Lan, T., Yang, Y., Shao, Y., Luo, M., & Zhong, F. (2021). The synergistic effect of natural disaster frequency and severity on inbound tourist flows from the annual perspective. Tourism Management Perspectives, 39, 100832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100832
  • Lee, C. C., & Chien, M. S. (2008). Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 77(4), 358–368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2007.03.004
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082–1089. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303772815961
  • Lennox, J. (2012). Impacts of high oil prices on tourism in New Zealand. Tourism Economics, 18(4), 781–800. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2012.0147
  • Liu, A., & Pratt, S. (2017). Tourism’s vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management, 60, 404–417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.001
  • Maneejuk, P., Yamaka, W., & Srichaikul, W. (2022). Tourism development and economic growth in Southeast Asian countries under the presence of structural break: Panel Kink with GME Estimator. Mathematics, 10(5), 723. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10050723
  • Mansfeld, Y., & Pizam, A. (2006). Tourism, terrorism, and civil unrest issues Mansfeld, Y, Pizam, A eds . In Tourism, security and safety (pp. 29–31). Butterworth-Heinemann.
  • Meo, M. S., Chowdhury, M. A. F., Shaikh, G. M., Ali, M., & Masood Sheikh, S. (2018). Asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan: New evidence from nonlinear ARDL. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(4), 408–422. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2018.1445652
  • Mertzanis, C., & Papastathopoulos, A. (2021). Epidemiological susceptibility risk and tourist flows around the world. Annals of Tourism Research, 86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.103095
  • Miller, D. S. (2008). Disaster tourism and disaster landscape attractions after Hurricane Katrina: An auto-ethnographic journey. International Journal of Culture, Tourism and Hospitality Research, 2(2), 115–131. https://doi.org/10.1108/17506180810880692
  • Min, J. C. (2005). SARS devastation on tourism: The Taiwan case. Journal of American Academy of Business, 6(1), 278–284.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2004). Fiji’s tourism demand: The ARDL approach to cointegration. Tourism Economics, 10(2), 193–206. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000004323142425
  • Narayan, P. K. 2019. A tourism demand model for Fiji, 1970-2000. Retrieved July 19, 2021, from http://hdl.handle.net/1885/157661
  • Nazneen, S., Hong, X., & Ud Din, N. 2020 May 4. COVID-19 crises and tourist travel risk perceptions. Available at SSRN or https://ssrn.com/abstract=3592321. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3592321
  • Neumayer, E., & Plümper, T. (2016). Spatial spill-overs from terrorism on tourism: Western victims in Islamic destination countries. Public Choice, 169(3), 195–206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0359-y
  • Okafor, L. E., Khalid, U., & Then, T. (2018). Common unofficial language, development and international tourism. Tourism Management, 67, 127–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.01.008
  • Onafowora, O. A., & Owoye, O. (2012). Modelling international tourism demand for the Caribbean. Tourism Economics, 18(1), 159–180. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2012.0102
  • Ongan, S., & Gozgor, G. (2018). Tourism demand analysis: The impact of the economic policy uncertainty on the arrival of Japanese tourists to the USA. International Journal of Tourism Research, 20(3), 308–316. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2182
  • Ongan, S., Işik, C., & Özdemir, D. (2017). The effects of real exchange rates and income on international tourism demand for the USA from some European Union countries. Economies, 5(4), 51. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies5040051
  • Peng, B., Song, H., Crouch, G. I., & Witt, S. F. (2015). A meta-analysis of international tourism demand elasticities. Journal of Travel Research, 54(5), 611–633. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287514528283
  • Permatasari, M. F., Padilla, M. A. E., & Esquivias, M. A. (2020). Determinants of tourism demand in Indonesia: A Panel data analysis. Tourism Analysis, 25(1), 77–89. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354220X15758301241666
  • Perron, P. (1997). Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables. Journal of Econometrics, 80(2), 355–385. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00049-3
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Pham, T. D., Dwyer, L., Su, J. J., & Ngo, T. (2021). COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy. Annals of Tourism Research, 88, 103179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2021.103179
  • Podhorodecka, K. (2018). Tourism economies and islands’ resilience to the global financial crisis. Island Studies Journal, 13(2), 163–184. https://doi.org/10.24043/isj.43
  • Polyzos, S., Papadopoulou, G., & Fotiadis, A. (2022). Determining terrorism proxies for the relationship with tourism demand: A global view. Tourism Analysis, 27(2), 237–247. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354221X16186299762089
  • Ramos, V., Untong, A., & Kaosa-Ard, M. (2017). ASEAN’s intra-regional tourism demand to Thailand. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(9), 909–921. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2017.1359192
  • Rosselló, J., Becken, S., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2020). The effects of natural disasters on international tourism: A global analysis. Tourism Management, 79, 104080. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104080
  • Ruan, W. Q., Li, Y. Q., & Liu, C. H. S. (2017). Measuring tourism risk impacts on destination image. Sustainability, 9(9), 1501. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9091501
  • Shafiullah, M., Okafor, L. E., & Khalid, U. (2019). Determinants of international tourism demand: Evidence from Australian states and territories. Tourism Economics, 25(2), 274–296. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816618800642
  • Shahbaz, M., Benkraiem, R., Miloudi, A., & Tiwari, A. K. (2019). Tourism-induced financial development in Malaysia: New evidence from the tourism development index. Tourism Economics, 25(5), 757–778. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816618806123
  • Sharma, C., & Khanna, R. (2021). Does global economic policy uncertainty drive tourism demand? A cross-country analysis. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2021.1916510
  • Sharma, A., & Nicolau, J. L. (2020). An open market valuation of the effects of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry. Annals of Tourism Research, 83, 102990. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.102990
  • Sheldon, P., & Dwyer, L. (2010). The global financial crisis and tourism: Perspectives of the academy. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 3–4. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287509353191
  • Sio-Chong, U., & So, Y. C. (2020). The impacts of financial and non-financial crises on tourism: Evidence from Macao and Hong Kong. Tourism Management Perspectives, 33, 100628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2019.100628
  • Škare, M., Soriano, D. R., & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 163, 120469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469
  • Smeral, E. (2017). Tourism forecasting performance considering the instability of demand elasticities. Journal of Travel Research, 56(7), 913–926. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287516671435
  • Song, H., Li, G., Witt, S. F., & Fei, B. (2010). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: How should demand be measured? Tourism Economics, 16(1), 63–81. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000010790872213
  • Sun, Y., & Luo, M. (2022). Impacts of terrorist events on tourism development: Evidence from Asia. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 46(4), 696–723. https://doi.org/10.1177/1096348020986903
  • Su, D. N., Tran, K. P. T., Nguyen, L. N. T., Thai, T. H. T., Doan, T. H. T., & Tran, V. T. (2022). Modeling behavioral intention toward traveling in times of a health-related crisis. Journal of Vacation Marketing, 28(2), 135–151. https://doi.org/10.1177/13567667211024703
  • Theocharous, A. L., Zopiatis, A., Lambertides, N., Savva, C. S., & Mansfeld, Y. (2020). Tourism, instability and regional interdependency: Evidence from the Eastern-Mediterranean. Defence and Peace Economics, 31(3), 245–268. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2018.1501531
  • Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
  • Travel and Tourism Competitiveness. (2019). Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report. Retrieved July 19, 2021, from https://reports.weforum.org/travel-and-tourism-competitiveness-report-2019/rankings/?doing_wp_cron=1626236637.2455019950866699218750
  • Tsai, M. -C. (2021). Developing a sustainability strategy for Taiwan’s tourism industry after the COVID-19 pandemic. Plos One, 16(3), e0248319. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248319
  • Tsaur, R. C., & Chen, C. H. (2018). Sustainable tourism planning for Taiwanese in administrative effects with respect to Chinese arrivals. Sustainability, 10(12), 4729. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10124729
  • Uğur, N. G., & Akbıyık, A. (2020). Impacts of COVID-19 on global tourism industry: A cross-regional comparison. Tourism Management Perspectives, 36, 100744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2020.100744
  • United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2017). Asia tourism trends. Retrieved July 19, 2021, from https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/epdf/10.18111/9789284419142
  • Untong, A., Ramos, V., Kaosa-Ard, M., & Rey-Maquieira, J. (2014). Thailand’s long-run tourism demand elasticities. Tourism Economics, 20(3), 595–610. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2013.0280
  • Usman, O., Alola, A. A., & Ike, G. (2022). Inbound tourism demand elasticities of MENA countries: The role of internal and external conflicts. International Journal of Emerging Markets. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-04-2021-0650
  • Vena-Oya, J., Castañeda-García, J. A., & Rodríguez-Molina, M. Á. (2022). Forecasting a post-COVID-19 economic crisis using fuzzy cognitive maps: A Spanish tourism-sector perspective. Current Issues in Tourism, 25(13), 2048–2062. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2021.1944995
  • Wang, C. H. (2004). Predicting tourism demand using fuzzy time series and hybrid grey theory. Tourism Management, 25(3), 367–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00132-8
  • Wang, Y. S. (2009). The impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on Taiwan’s international inbound tourism demand. Tourism Management, 30(1), 75–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.04.010
  • Waqas-Awan, A., Rosselló-Nadal, J., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2021). New insights into the role of personal income on international tourism. Journal of Travel Research, 60(4), 799–809. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520907702
  • Webber, A. G. (2001). Exchange rate volatility and cointegration in tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research, 39(4), 398–405. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728750103900406
  • World Tourism Cities Federation. (2020). Report on recovery and development of world tourism amid COVID-19 officially published. Retrieved September 15, 2020. from the World Tourism Cities Federation. https://en.wtcf.org.cn/News/WTCFNews/wzNews/2020090519583.html.
  • Yeh, S. S. (2021). Tourism recovery strategy against COVID-19 pandemic. Tourism Recreation Research, 46(2), 188–194. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2020.1805933
  • Zenker, S., & Kock, F. (2020). The coronavirus pandemic–a critical discussion of a tourism research agenda. Tourism Management, 81, 104164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104164

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.