Modeling long term energy futures after Nordhaus (1973)

References

• Anadon, L. D. & Nemet, G. F. (2013). The US synthetic fuels corporation: Policy consistency, flexibility, and the long-term consequences of perceived failures. In A. Grübler & C. Wilson (Eds.), Energy technology innovation: Learning from historical successes and failures (pp. 257–273). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Azar, C. & Dowlatabadi, H. (1999). A review of technical change in assessment of climate policy. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 24(1), 513–544. doi:10.1146/energy.1999.24.issue-1
   Google Scholar
• Bezdek, R. H. & Wendling, R. M. (2002). A half century of long-range energy forecasts: Errors made, lessons learned, and implications for forecasting. Journal of Fusion Energy, 21(3/4), 155–172. doi:10.1023/A:1026208113925
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Box, G. & Draper, N. R. (1987). Empirical model-building and response surfaces. Oxford: John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Craig, P. P., Gadgil, A., & Koomey, J. (2002). What can history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 27, 83–118. doi:10.1146/energy.2002.27.issue-1
   Google Scholar
• Cullenward, D., Schipper, L., Sudarshan, A., & Howarth, R. (2011). Psychohistory revisited: Fundamental issues in forecasting climate futures. Climatic Change, 104(3–4), 457–472. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9995-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dale, L., Antinori, C., McNeil, M., McMahon, J. E., & Sydny Fujita, K. (2009). Retrospective evaluation of appliance price trends. Energy Policy, 37(2), 597–605. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.087
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ehrlich, P. R. & Holdren, J. P. (1971). Impact of population growth. Science, 171(3977), 1212–1217. doi:10.1126/science.171.3977.1212
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ford, G. (1976). Statement on Nuclear Policy. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Retrieved from http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=6561
   Google Scholar
• Goulder, L. H. & Schneider, S. H. (1999). Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies. Resource and Energy Economics, 21, 211–253. doi:10.1016/S0928-7655(99)00004-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Grübler, A. (1998). Technology and global change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Grübler, A., Nakićenović, N., & Victor, D. G. (1999). Dynamics of energy technologies and global change. Energy Policy, 27, 247–280. doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(98)00067-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hanson, M. (1985). Modeling for forecasting versus modeling for understanding: Observations from energy planning. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 6(1), 50–59.
   Google Scholar
• Hultman, N. E. & Koomey, J. G. (2007). The risk of surprise in energy technology costs. Environmental Research Letters, 2(3), 034002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lin, S.-W. & Bier, V. M. (2008). A study of expert overconfidence. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 93(5), 711–721. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.014
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens III, W. W. (1972). The limits to growth. New York: Universe.
   Google Scholar
• Morgan, M. & Keith, D. (2008). Improving the way we think about projecting future energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide. Climatic Change, 90(3), 189–215. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9458-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• NCC. (2015). IAM helpful or not? [Editorial]. Nature Climate Change, 5(2), 81–81. doi:10.1038/nclimate2526
   Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (1973). The allocation of energy resources. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 3, 529–576.
   Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (1992). An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Science, 258(5086), 1315–1319. doi:10.1126/science.258.5086.1315
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (2008). A question of balance: Weighing the options on global warming policies. New Haven: Yale University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (2013). The climate casino: Risk, uncertainty, and economics for a warming world. New Haven: Yale University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Rosen, R. A. & Guenther, E. (2014). The economics of mitigating climate change: What can we know? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 91, 93–106.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simon, J. L. (1981). The ultimate resource. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Smil, V. (2003). Energy at the crossroads: Global perspectives and uncertainties. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
   Google Scholar
• Smil, V. (2008). Long-range energy forecasts are no more than fairy tales. Nature, 453(7192), 154–154. doi:10.1038/453154a
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Speirs-Bridge, A., Fidler, F., McBride, M., Flander, L., Cumming, G., & Burgman, M. (2010). Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts. Risk Analysis, 30(3), 512–523. doi:10.1111/risk.2010.30.issue-3
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• van der Ploeg, F. & Withagen, C. (2012). Is there really a green paradox? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 64(3), 342–363. doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2012.08.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Winebrake, J. J. & Sakva, D. (2006). An evaluation of errors in US energy forecasts: 1982–2003. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3475–3483. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.07.018
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar