A Framework for Exploring How Density Dependence Early in the Life History Can Affect Louisiana’s Brown Shrimp Fishery

References

• Adamack, A. T., C. A. Stow, D. M. Mason, L. P. Rozas, and T. J. Minello. 2012. Predicting the effects of freshwater diversions on juvenile brown shrimp growth and production: a Bayesian-based approach. Marine Ecology Progress Series 444:155–173.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Archambault, B., O. Le Pape, L. Baulier, Y. Vermard, M. Véron, and E. Rivot. 2016. Adult-mediated connectivity affects inferences on population dynamics and stock assessment of nursery-dependent fish. Fisheries Research 181:198–213.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baker, R., M. Fujiwara, and T. J. Minello. 2014. Juvenile growth and mortality effects on white shrimp Litopenaeus setiferus population dynamics in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fisheries Research 155:74–82.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beck, M. W., K. L. Heck Jr., K. W. Able, D. L. Childers, D. B. Eggleston, B. M. Gillanders, B. Halpern, C. G. Hays, K. Hoshino, T. J. Minello, R. J. Orth, P. F. Sheridan, and M. P. Weinstein. 2001. The identification, conservation, and management of estuarine and marine nurseries for fish and invertebrates. BioScience 51:633–641.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Benfield, M. C., and R. G. Downer. 2001. Spatial and temporal variability in the nearshore distributions of postlarval Farfantepenaeus aztecus along Galveston Island, Texas. Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science 52:445–456.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brooks, S. P., and A. Gelman. 1998. General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 7:434–455.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Caillouet, C. W. Jr., R. A. Hart, and J. M. Nance. 2008. Growth overfishing in the brown shrimp fishery of Texas, Louisiana, and adjoining Gulf of Mexico EEZ. Fisheries Research 92:289–302.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Childers, D. L., J. W. Day Jr., and R. A. Muller. 1990. Relating climatological forcing to coastal water levels in Louisiana estuaries and the potential importance of El Nino–Southern Oscillation events. Climate Research 1: 31–42.
   Google Scholar
• Couvillion, B. R., J. A. Barras, G. D. Steyer, W. Sleavin, M. Fischer, H. Beck, N. Trahan, B. Griffin, and D. Heckman. 2011. Land area change in coastal Louisiana from 1932 to 2010. U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center, Scientific Investigations Map 3164 (1:265,000 scale), Lafayette, Louisiana.
   Google Scholar
• Couvillion, B. R., G. D. Steyer, H. Wang, H. J. Beck, and J. M. Rybczyk. 2013. Forecasting the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology in coastal Louisiana under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios. Journal of Coastal Research 6(Special Issue):29–50.
   Google Scholar
• Delignette-Muller, M. L., and C. Dutang. 2015. Fitdistrplus: an R package for fitting distributions. Journal of Statistical Software [online serial] 64:4.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Denwood, M. J. 2016. Runjags: an R package providing interface utilities, model templates, parallel computing methods and additional distributions for MCMC models in JAGS. Journal of Statistical Software [online serial] 71:9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ehrhardt, N. M., and C. M. Legault. 1999. Pink shrimp, Farfantepenaeus duorarum, recruitment variability as an indicator of Florida Bay dynamics. Estuaries 22:471–483.
   Google Scholar
• Fogerty, M. J., M. P. Sissenwine, and E. B. Cohen. 1991. Recruitment variability and the dynamics of exploited marine populations. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 6:241–246.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Garrett, E. S., and S. L. Zeger. 2000. Latent class model diagnosis. Biometrics 56:1055–1067.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gelman, A., J. B. Carlin, H. S. Stern, D. B. Dunson, A. Vehtari, and D. B. Rubin. 2014. Bayesian data analysis, 3rd edition. CRC Press/Chapman and Hall, Boca Raton, Florida.
   Google Scholar
• Gillanders, B. M., K. W. Able, J. A. Brown, D. B. Eggleston, and P. F. Sheridan. 2003. Evidence of connectivity between juvenile and adult habitats for mobile marine fauna: an important component of nurseries. Marine Ecology Progress Series 247:281–295.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gimenez, O., B. J. T. Morgan, and S. P. Brooks. 2009. Weak identifiability in models for mark–recapture data. Pages 1055–1067 in D. L. Thomas, E. G. Cooch, and M. J. Conroy, editors. Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, Environmental and Ecological Statistics, New York.
   Google Scholar
• Goodwin, N. B., A. Grant, A. L. Perry, N. K. Dulvy, and J. D. Reynolds. 2006. Life history correlates of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 63:494–509.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haas, H. L., E. C. Lamon III, K. A. Rose, and R. F. Shaw. 2001. Environmental and biological factors associated with the stage-specific abundance of brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus) in Louisiana: applying a new combination of statistical techniques to long-term monitoring data. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58:2258–2270.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haas, H. L., K. A. Rose, B. Fry, T. J. Minello, and L. P. Rozas. 2004. Brown shrimp on the edge: linking habitat to survival using an individual-based simulation model. Ecological Applications 14:1232–1247.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Houde, E. D. 1987. Fish early life dynamics and recruitment variability. Pages 17–29 in R. D. Hoyt, editor. 10th Annual larval fish conference. American Fisheries Society, Symposium 2, Bethesda, Maryland.
   Google Scholar
• Hsieh, C. H., C. S. Reiss, J. R. Hunter, J. R. Beddington, R. M. May, and G. Sugihara. 2006. Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species. Nature 443:859–862.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huang, L., and M. D. Smith. 2011. Management of an annual fishery in the presence of ecological stress: the case of shrimp and hypoxia. Ecological Economics 70:688–697.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kéry, M., and M. Schaub. 2012. Bayesian population analysis using WinBUGS. Academic Press, San Diego, California.
   Google Scholar
• Korner-Nievergelt, F., and R. A. Robinson. 2014. Introducing the R package “birdring.” Ringing and Migration 29:51–61.
   Google Scholar
• Lassuy, D. R. 1983. Species profiles—life histories and environmental requirements (Gulf of Mexico): brown shrimp. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service FWS/OBS-82/11.1.
   Google Scholar
• Leo, J. P., T. J. Minello, W. E. Grant, and H. Wang. 2016. Simulating environmental effects on brown shrimp production in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ecological Modeling 330:24–40.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Li, J., and A. J. Clarke. 2005. Sea surface temperature and the brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) population on the Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas continental shelves. Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science 64:261–266.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Link, W. A., and M. J. Eaton. 2012. On thinning of chains in MCMC. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 3:112–115.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Massiot-Granier, F., E. Prévost, G. Chaput, T. Potter, G. Smith, J. White, S. Mäntyniemi, and E. Rivot. 2014. Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modeling framework: an application to Atlantic Salmon in the Northeast Atlantic. ICES Journal of Marine Science 71:1653–1670.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maunder, M. N., and K. R. Piner. 2015. Contemporary fisheries stock assessment: many issues still remain. ICES Journal of Marine Science 72:7–18.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meyer, R., and R. B. Millar. 1999. BUGS in Bayesian stock assessments. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 56:1078–1086.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Minello, T. J., G. A. Matthews, P. A. Caldwell, and L. P. Rozas. 2008. Population and production estimates for decapod crustaceans in wetlands of Galveston Bay, Texas. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 137:129–146.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Minello, T. J., and L. P. Rozas. 2002. Nekton in Gulf Coast wetlands: fine scale distributions, landscape patterns, and restoration implications. Ecological Applications 12:441–455.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Minello, T. J., L. P. Rozas, and R. Baker. 2012. Geographic variability in salt marsh flooding patterns may affect nursery value for fishery species. Estuaries and Coasts 35:501–514.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Minello, T. J., and R. J. Zimmerman. 1983. Fish predation on juvenile brown shrimp, Penaeus aztecus Ives: the effect of simulated Spartina structure on predation rates. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 72:211–231.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Minello, T. J., and R. J. Zimmerman. 1992. Utilization of natural and transplanted Texas salt marshes by fish and decapod crustaceans. Marine Ecology Progress Series 90:273–285.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Minello, T. J., R. J. Zimmerman, and E. X. Martinez. 1989. Mortality of young brown shrimp Penaeus aztecus in estuarine nurseries. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 118:693–708.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Myers, R. A. 2001. Stock and recruitment: generalizations about maximum reproductive rate, density-dependence, and variability using meta-analytic approaches. ICES Journal of Marine Science 58:937–951.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nance, J. M., E. X. Martinez, and E. F. Klima. 1994. Feasibility of improving the economic return from the Gulf of Mexico brown shrimp fishery. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 14:522–536.
   Google Scholar
• Nyman, J. A., D. M. Baltz, M. D. Kaller, P. L. Leberg, P. L., C. Parsons Richards, R. P. Romaire, and T. M. Soniat. 2013. Likely changes in habitat quality for fish and wildlife in coastal Louisiana during the next fifty years. Journal of Coastal Research 67(Special Issue):60–74.
   Google Scholar
• O’Connor, T., and D. Whitall. 2007. Linking hypoxia to shrimp catch in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Marine Pollution Bulletin 54:460–463.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pérez-Castañeda, R., and O. Defeo. 2001. Population variability of four sympatric penaeid shrimps (Farfantepenaeus spp.) in a tropical coastal lagoon of Mexico. Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science 52:631–641.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Perret, W. S., P. E. Bowman, and L. B. Savoie. 1993. Louisiana’s brown shrimp monitoring and management program. Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Southeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies 47:502–510.
   Google Scholar
• Punt, A. E., and R. Hilborn. 1997. Fisheries stock assessment and decision analysis: the Bayesian approach. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 7:35‒63.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haas, H. L., K. A. Rose, B. Fry, T. J. Minello, and L. P. Rozas. 2010. Brown shrimp on the edge: linking habitat to survival using an individual-based simulation model. Ecological Applications 14:1232–1247.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• R Development Core Team. 2015. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. Available: http://www.R-project.org. (September 2017).
   Google Scholar
• Rogers, B. D., R. F. Shaw, W. H. Herke, and R. H. Blanchet. 1993. Recruitment of postlarval and juvenile brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus Ives) from offshore to estuarine waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science 36:377–394.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rose, C. D., A. H. Harris, and B. Wilson. 1975. Extensive culture of penaeid shrimp in Louisiana salt-marsh impoundments. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 104:296–307.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rose, K. A., J. H. Cowan Jr., K. O. Winemiller, R. A. Myers, and R. Hilborn. 2001. Compensatory density dependence in fish populations: importance, controversy, understanding and prognosis. Fish and Fisheries 2:293–327.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Roth, B. M., K. A. Rose, L. P. Rozas, and T. J. Minello. 2008. Relative influence of habitat fragmentation and inundation on brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus production in northern Gulf of Mexico salt marshes. Marine Ecology Progress Series 359:185–202.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shepherd, J. G., and D. H. Cushing. 1980. A mechanism for density-dependent survival of larval fish as the basis for a stock–recruitment relationship. ICES Journal of Marine Science 39:160–167.
   Google Scholar
• van de Kerk, M., C. J. Littles, O. Saucedo, and K. Lorenzen. 2016. The effect of latitudinal variation on shrimp reproductive strategies. PLOS (Public Library of Science) ONE [online serial] 11(5):e0155266.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zein-Eldin, Z. P., and M. L. Renaud. 1986. Inshore environmental effects on brown shrimp, Penaeus aztecus, and white shrimp, P. setiferus, populations in coastal waters, particularly of Texas. Marine Fisheries Review 48:9–19.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar