Long-term load forecasting for the Kingdom of Bahrain using Monte Carlo method

Abstract

The present study applies Monte Carlo method to electric power network of the Kingdom of Bahrain over a period of five years taking into consideration the maximum electrical loads. The basic variables of the Monte Carlo method are presented and discussed from the standard deviation and reserve points of view. The maximum loads and simulation results were compared on a weekly and yearly basis. A comparison of the minimum mean square error has been calculated and plotted. The results show similarity between the forecasted data and simulation results.

Keywords:

• Monte Carlo
• Mean square error
• Load