Revisiting property crime and economic conditions: An exploratory study to identify predictive indicators beyond unemployment rates

Abstract

Numerous researchers have questioned the use of the unemployment rate as an explanatory factor in econometric studies which address the relationship between the economy and crime. This paper presents the findings from an exploratory study which sought to test the efficacy of the unemployment rate for predicting reported property crime rates and to identify other economic indicators which may also prove to be useful for predicting crimes with economic under tones or motives. Specifically, larceny-theft, burglary, motor vehicle theft, robbery, fraud and embezzlement. Given the exploratory nature of the study seven stepwise regressions were computed with unemployment emerging as a significant predictor for only one of the criminal offenses. Findings identified other useful economic variables, such as average wage and salary disbursements, supplemental security income receipts, the consumer price index and per capita personal income which should be considered in lieu of unemployment rates.

Keywords:

• Property crime
• Economy
• Economic indicators
• Unemployment

Acknowledgements

The authors greatly appreciate the insightful comments and critique from the manuscript reviewers and are gracious for their time and expertise in significantly strengthening this work.

Notes

1 Poverty rate information was suggested, by one of the paper's astute reviewers, as being a possible important economic predictor. Data for this measure as well as the Gini Index were obtained and input into each of the seven regression models. None of these measures survived model specifications and emerged as statistically significant predictors. It is possible that the poverty rate is significantly correlated with the other economic variables and was excluded based on the specified collinearity diagnostic levels.