A projection of the regional development of egg production until 2015

Abstract

In contrast to detailed projections for the development of plant and animal production, as published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) or the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), for a great number of commodities, there are hardly any projections for the development of hen egg production. The OECD publishes projections for the coming decade annually, but the data cover all poultry eggs, the EU Commission gives data only for EU member states. In this paper, a projection for the development of hen egg consumption and hen egg production between 2005 and 2015 is presented. It is based on an analysis of the development between 1995 and 2005 as well as on basic population and socio-economic data, such as population development, age structure of the population, urbanisation of a society, development of the gross national product and the per capita national income. Based on these data, the development of the per capita consumption of shell eggs was calculated for the decade until 2015. These data were then used in combination with the predicted development of the population to calculate the additional egg demand in 2015. It is estimated that the additional egg demand will be as high as 12 million metric tonnes. This will result in a total production volume of 70.9 million tonnes. About 67% of this demand will arise in Asia, 12% in Africa, and 11% in Latin America. These continents will gain shares in global egg production, North America and Europe will lose shares. Whether the required volume of 70.9 million tonnes can be reached, will depend on several factors, e.g. outbreaks of Avian Influenza, higher feed costs because of the booming bio-energy production, and political decisions (e.g. banning of conventional cages in the EU).

Keywords:

• egg consumption
• egg production
• projection of global egg production