Monitoring Schemes in Short-term Forecasting

Abstract

A necessary ingredient of a practical short-term forecasting system in which the parameters of the demand model are not adaptive is some form of monitoring to detect changes in the demand pattern for which the model is inadequate. There are two major automatic methods currently in use for accomplishing this aim. The present paper compares the performances of these two schemes by the use of simulation and gives tables which may be used as a basis for the selection of a suitable scheme in a variety of situations.

^*Now in the Operational Research Department, The Boots Company Ltd., Nottingham.

^*Now in the Operational Research Department, The Boots Company Ltd., Nottingham.