Operational Research for Complex Conflicts: A Gaming Methodology for the Development of a Decision-Making Monitor

Abstract

A methodology for providing assistance to decision-makers in conflicts is demonstrated. It is shown that in simple "Chicken" games, conflict-like situations arise only when players have radically different aims and that players experiencing crisis-like situations in such games typically exhibit behaviours which would exacerbate real conflicts. It is argued that explicit knowledge of such behavioural tendencies. the conditions in which they arise, and the possible underlying mechanisms, would be of assistance to decision-makers, both for them to monitor their own behaviour, and to assess that of other parties.