A Hypergame Approach to Crisis Decision-Making: The 1973 Middle East War

Abstract

The theory of hypergames is used to retrospectively analyse actions taken during the period of crisis immediately prior to the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. The analysis supports the hypothesis that each player behaved rationally within the framework of his own perceptual game, actions corresponding to stable outcomes in the axis of the game. A proposed methodology is put forward for applying the theory to current crisis problems.