Modelling Under Uncertainty: Comparing Three Acid-Rain Models

Abstract

This paper examines three themes of modelling. Its primary concern is with the problem of representing uncertainty in models, while the issues of interactive computer modelling and the use of models as decision aids also receive some attention. These issues are addressed by way of a comparative analysis of three models of the acid-deposition problem which have been developed in recent years in the UK and USA. The design of these models and the methods employed to represent uncertainty are described. The strengths and weaknesses of these techniques, and the various unresolved issues which these models have highlighted, are discussed.

Keywords:

• acid rain
• decision aids
• interactive computer modelling
• uncertainty analysis