Conflict Analysis in the Politico-Military Environment of a New World Order

Abstract

A methodology is developed to analyse present and future crisis and conflict potentials of small or large geopolitical regions. A set of criteria is used to describe the present economic, social, political and military conditions of a country and the future criteria trends. A multi-criteria decision analysis model is invoked to compute the crisis and conflict potentials under simultaneous consideration of all other countries in that region. The methodology is demonstrated in the crisis and conflict potentials analysis of the former Soviet republics including bordering countries.

Keywords:

• Conflict Analysis
• Decision Analysis
• Statistics
• Methodology
• Military
• Computational Analysis

^*The views presented in this paper are solely those of the author, and do not represent the official views of the Department of National Defence.

^*The views presented in this paper are solely those of the author, and do not represent the official views of the Department of National Defence.