Integration of Markov and Linear Programming Models to Assess the Farmgate and National Consequences of Adopting New Bovine Reproductive Technologies in the United Kingdom Agriculture

Abstract

Despite many advances in biotechnology being futuristic, in some industries such technological improvements are now becoming generally available for absorption into commercial practice. The new reproductive technologies for bovine animals are such an example. For a regulated industry like agriculture, an ex ante evaluation of the impact of their adoption is the concern of policy makers. This paper describes a modelling strategy devised to assess these impacts, using a sequence of stochastic, financial and linear programming models. A set of individual farm type models were developed and later extended to a national model to simulate the interactions that occur between dairy and beef enterprises and the competition between them for resources on individual farms. Restraints reflecting national policies such as quotas on milk production and industry support through subsidies are built into the model to explore several scenarios. These models are used to assess the impact of new technologies on dairy and beef production nationally and for regions which have been identified by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food.

Keywords:

• agriculture
• Markov chain
• linear programming