Modelling credit risk of portfolio of consumer loans

Abstract

One of the issues that the Basel Accord highlighted was that, though techniques for estimating the probability of default and hence the credit risk of loans to individual consumers are well established, there were no models for the credit risk of portfolios of such loans. Motivated by the reduced form models for credit risk in corporate lending, we seek to exploit the obvious parallels between behavioural scores and the ratings ascribed to corporate bonds to build consumer-lending equivalents. We incorporate both consumer-specific ratings and macroeconomic factors in the framework of Cox Proportional Hazard models. Our results show that default intensities of consumers are significantly influenced by macro factors. Such models then can be used as the basis for simulation approaches to estimate the credit risk of portfolios of consumer loans.

Keywords:

• finance
• credit risk
• survival analysis
• credit scoring

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by an EPSRC grant that pump primed the Quantitative Financial Risk Management Centre. We are grateful to the referees for their useful suggestions on an earlier version of this paper.