System/scenario duality—a supporting equivalence

Abstract

The two well-known strategic toolsets of scenarios and systems thinking possess a structural mutuality. The latter focuses on future states, whereas the former focuses on the mechanisms that create those possible futures. An ensemble of scenarios for strategic use should exhibit a homogeneity in its underlying behavioural assumptions while, self-evidently, illustrating variations on those assumptions in terms of the outcomes captured by the scenarios. Thus, in order to create a suitable scenario ensemble (for strategic hypothesising, assessment of candidate policies, risk appraisal, etc) there needs to exist a stable system assumption common to all of the scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to explore the nature of this duality between coherence in a scenario ensemble and the underlying system representation and to illustrate a procedure for utilising this duality to improve scenario and system model building. This is approached from two directions. First, the contribution of explicit system mechanisms (dominant loops) in characterising and creating coherence in scenario ensembles is discussed. Second, the dual problem, that of the extent to which an existing coherent ensemble of scenarios can throw light on the dominant underlying system assumptions, is explored. The conclusions of the paper are that there is use in mobilising this duality of representation, this being illustrated by a brief, multi-informant case study of the futures of the business school industry of the UK. The explication and analysis of the case study shows the procedure in use.

Keywords:

• strategy
• scenarios
• systems