Abstract
Sustained success requires long-term strategies with contingencies for uncertainty. Strategies, and their assumptions about future trends and events, should be set against a background or scenario. Comprehensive scenarios are rare because of lack of training, myopia about remote factors, problems of consensus and lack of simple tools. This article offers a simulation solution, bridging intuitive and econometric approaches. This provides a framework for heuristic learning, for trying alternative strategies, assumptions and interactions, gaining consensus and producing more and less likely scenarios. This reduces vulnerability to shock and lost opportunity. It helps management focus on long-term strategy, allowing more initiative down the line. A case study for a county planning department is illustrated.
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James Thring
JAMES THRING has been a freelance consultant to Battelle and an Associate of the Henley Centre since 1979, specialising in forecasting environmental and energy issues. He has lectured on the MBA course at the Polytechnic of Central London and on the Strategic Planning course at Oxford Polytechnic. He has a proprietary interest in Battelle's BASICS software.